Bracket website (LONG)

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SectionBAggie
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Bracket website (LONG)

Post by SectionBAggie » February 14th, 2020, 5:34 pm

This site is an interesting view of the bracket world.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

It is very fluid in that today there are 79 different predictors listed while a couple of days ago there were 96. But it seems to overcome any individual biases due to the number of opinions being used.

Bolded schools are (according to the website's metrics) the current autobid for each conference. So as you follow up from the 16-seeds, you see the list of single bid conferences. These conferences do not steal bids since their champion is not rated ahead of the last at-large position. Hence ETSU and Liberty, in spite of very good years, are still in the no at-large bid territory.

There are currently only 11 conferences with champions rated higher than the last at-large bid team (VCU at this time). That leaves a potential of 11 bids being stolen, but only if the autobid from one of those 11 conferences is not already on the chart as an at-large.

So Baylor may lose in the B12 tournament, but the autobid would have to go to someone besides Kansas, WVU, TTU, AND Oklahoma for the B12 to 'steal a bid'. Though it's possible, it's unlikely for all 5 to be eliminated in the same tourney.

On the other hand, SDSU is the only MWC in the website's field today, and they would be in the field even with a tournament loss (based on today's data), so the MWC is a prime example of a conference that could steal a bid.
There are not very many such conferences. The MVC with Northern Iowa could be another, but UNI is just above the line so they are in a bit of a different situation than SDSU.

Based on their current position, USU has no real wiggle room in the regular season.

Conference tournaments guarantee that hundreds of teams will end their pre-Selection Sunday season with a loss, so conference tournament losses are not as devastating as a whole - though admittedly a loss to Wyoming in Vegas would be a major blow if it were to happen.

What it all means to me is that in addition to cheering for USU, I hope that the bottom of the bubble teams (those last teams with at-large bids) and the other teams listed as "out" go cold. With the exception of Aggie opponents such as Florida and SMC.

And then there are a few teams that I always cheer against. ;)



Rustyj87
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Re: Bracket website (LONG)

Post by Rustyj87 » February 14th, 2020, 10:26 pm

I wonder if the big ten will get that many teams seems at some point the top teams will kill off the hopes a double digit bids.



SectionBAggie
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Re: Bracket website (LONG)

Post by SectionBAggie » February 15th, 2020, 9:52 am

Rustyj87 wrote:
February 14th, 2020, 10:26 pm
I wonder if the big ten will get that many teams seems at some point the top teams will kill off the hopes a double digit bids.
I agree. These details have a lot of games left to work through. For example, in Massey's ratings (not that he is the best, perhaps, but his sites are really easy to follow), you find the following about Indiana.

https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3484&s=309912

Indiana is an underdog in each of their next five games. There is no way that a team holds its place just inside the bubble if they lose 3, 4 or 5 games between now and their conference tournament. And since all five are against teams that the bracket website shows as in, someone is going to lose a lot of games.



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