NAR: Jazz Next Steps

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NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by 3rdGenAggie » June 19th, 2021, 10:26 am

So, what do you all think the Jazz should do next? It seems pretty clear they've hit their ceiling with the current make-up.

Rudy and Donovan both start 5 year max extensions next year and together make up something like 60% of the salary cap. The Jazz will have basically zero money outside of the tax-payer exceptions for the duration. They have Conley's Bird rights (they can go over the cap to re-sign him), but any outside free agents will likely have to be mid-level exception guys.

Who do you trade/go after to try and improve the team? (Try and be realistic and consider why the other team would agree to a trade. The Hawks aren't trading Trey Young for Rudy.)


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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by Intermeddler » June 19th, 2021, 11:04 am

They need long perimeter defenders. People like to blame Rudy but no one on our team could keep his guy in front of him in the perimeter. Royce is supposedly our lockdown guy but he got cooked constantly. If the other team can break the paint without a pick then there’s not a ton for us to do. Rudy can stick to the corner but that creates a lay up line or he can help and try and recover. I would try and find 2-3 guys 6’7”-6’9” that can defend.

I think the front office did a pretty terrible job getting the details right on the roster to compete for a title. Azibuke was a terrible pick when Bane or McDaniels were available if we were looking for a contributor this year. I have no idea why we gave up a pick for Matt Thomas who never had any chance to play meaningful minutes when Phoenix got Torrey Craig for peanuts.

I’d like to see us keep Donovan Gobert Clarkson and Bogey but add some versatility around them. I’d bring back Conley since we can’t really replace him due to cap limitations.

Royce ingles favors and Niang are all expendable to me. And I’d try and add guys like Covington, Craig, etc that can give us some lineup versatility and perimeter defense we desperately need

It’s really too bad the Clippers have a guy like Mann as their 11th guy who can give them a big lift and the 10-15 spots on our roster are all developmental guys. It makes no sense for a contender to be constructed this way.

Maybe Brantley or Oni can add perimeter defense but their development needs to be accelerated if so.

Why might also be overreacting a little. If Conley is healthy that whole series, we probably win in 5 or 6.
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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by Aggie formerly in Hawaii » June 19th, 2021, 12:06 pm

Yeah Royce got badly exposed in this past series. This team needs legitimate perimeter defenders. Maybe he will become that. I don't know why the Jazz waived Shaquille Harrison. He can't make 3's so in that way he doesn't fit in well with the Jazz, but he is a better defender than a lot of the guys on the roster. This is the type of series where his value would have shown.
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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by Mr. Sneelock » June 19th, 2021, 12:13 pm

I think we are overreacting, and frankly there isn't a lot they can do with current cap limitations. They have to re-sign Conley because they literally can't replace him since they are in the luxury tax and definitely can't do better with the tax-payer mid-level exception.

Spend the mid-level exception on a guy that can play perimeter defense, draft a guy that can contribute right away (no projects please - this last draft was a disaster), maybe make a couple of minor moves and run it back. Keep an open roster spot for a buyout player. With a healthy Donovan and Conley, we probably win this series.
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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by 2004AG » June 19th, 2021, 1:31 pm

I don’t think it’s fair to say we win with a healthy Donovan ans Mike. Hell, clippers whooped the Jazz without Leonard, one of the best top 5 players in the league. To me, that’s the most disheartening.


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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by Aggie formerly in Hawaii » June 19th, 2021, 5:17 pm

2004AG wrote:
June 19th, 2021, 1:31 pm
I don’t think it’s fair to say we win with a healthy Donovan ans Mike. Hell, clippers whooped the Jazz without Leonard, one of the best top 5 players in the league. To me, that’s the most disheartening.


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Yes and no. The Jazz absolutely choked. You can't really blame injuries when Kawhi freaking Leonard is out against you and Donovan had a great series other than game 5.

The Jazz should have won this series though. They only have themselves to blame for what happened last night. That was probably the worst game I've experienced as a lifelong Jazz fan. I am trying to remember a playoff game that made me feel more sick. You make Terrence Mann, a guy who barely played in meaningful minutes when Kawhi was healthy absolutely destroy you. So I blame the Jazz's ineptitude more than I credit the Clippers. This was a winnable series, the Jazz just choked.



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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by 3rdGenAggie » June 19th, 2021, 7:34 pm

I do definitely think the Jazz win if Conley plays the whole series.


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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by Yossarian » June 19th, 2021, 7:37 pm

The best part about the Jazz losing is now I can go back to not watching NBA basketball.

I think the Jazz are in big trouble, by the way. Personnel and salary decisions are going to be tough.



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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by Yossarian » June 21st, 2021, 12:26 pm

What do the Jazz do with Conley in the off season?



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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by 3rdGenAggie » June 21st, 2021, 12:54 pm

Yossarian wrote:
June 21st, 2021, 12:26 pm
What do the Jazz do with Conley in the off season?
I fully expect them to offer him more than anyone else will and keep him. He'll get somewhere between 2 years 30 and 2 years 40. Unless he wants to go to the Lakers for the MLE...moves for cheap to big markets seem to be really popular among older players.


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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by usu99 » June 21st, 2021, 2:04 pm

what a joke for these guys to be making that much...... just such a waste in the world these days.


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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by ususports » June 21st, 2021, 2:52 pm

usu99 wrote:
June 21st, 2021, 2:04 pm
what a joke for these guys to be making that much...... just such a waste in the world these days.
My favorite is when players make comments about how they need to make sure their family is taken care of. Donovan Mitchell made that type of comment when the media announced his $195 million contract. I can only imagine (hypothetically speaking), the Jazz offered $194 million, and Donovan replied, "Dude, I have to make sure I do what is best for my family and make sure they are taken care of, can you go to $195 million? I don't want them living on the streets, so that is the lowest I will go."



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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by NVAggie » June 21st, 2021, 2:53 pm

As long as people watch them display their talents, they will continue to make a lot of money.



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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by Aggie formerly in Hawaii » June 21st, 2021, 6:34 pm

NVAggie wrote:
June 21st, 2021, 2:53 pm
As long as people watch them display their talents, they will continue to make a lot of money.
Yep, as long as there are people willing to pay several hundred dollars for a night out, professional athletes and other high end entertainers will make a ton of money.
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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by 3rdGenAggie » June 21st, 2021, 7:45 pm

The market (and the Player's Union) dictates what they make. The numbers are absolutely absurd though.

The only thing that really bugs me is when people go on and on about how they need to "get the money" after a player has already had a $100 million+ contract. To use the Mitchell example, he'll make well over $200 million from salary alone before he's 30. He'll sign another max contract at that point for another $250 million and people will look at you like you're crazy for suggesting he take less to improve the team.


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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by brownjeans » June 22nd, 2021, 4:44 pm

Okay, crazy stuff about to follow.
I want to see the following unrestricted-free-agent guys (or similar players to these) added to the Jazz.
Semi Ojeleye - young, 6'6" can D and 3
Stanley Johnson - young, 6'6" can D and 3
Tony Snell - 6'6" can D and 3!!

This next one I never thought I'd say but...
Lonzo Ball - 6'6" PG, young, can D and is starting to be able to 3. He's a restricted free agent but there have been rumors that the Pelicans were shopping him. If we got him, it would probably mean Conley isn't coming back. Ball would be a great PG fit next to Mitchell.

Now - I don't know how the Jazz do any of this being over the cap; but these are the kinds of guys that would help fix the Jazz's weakness.

What we don't need are more guys who can't stay in front of their man.



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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by Aggie formerly in Hawaii » June 22nd, 2021, 9:58 pm

brownjeans wrote:
June 22nd, 2021, 4:44 pm
Okay, crazy stuff about to follow.
I want to see the following unrestricted-free-agent guys (or similar players to these) added to the Jazz.
Semi Ojeleye - young, 6'6" can D and 3
Stanley Johnson - young, 6'6" can D and 3
Tony Snell - 6'6" can D and 3!!

This next one I never thought I'd say but...
Lonzo Ball - 6'6" PG, young, can D and is starting to be able to 3. He's a restricted free agent but there have been rumors that the Pelicans were shopping him. If we got him, it would probably mean Conley isn't coming back. Ball would be a great PG fit next to Mitchell.

Now - I don't know how the Jazz do any of this being over the cap; but these are the kinds of guys that would help fix the Jazz's weakness.

What we don't need are more guys who can't stay in front of their man.
It is unpopular to say, but I'd take Lonzo Ball going forward. He is 23 and took a big step this past season. In Snyder's system his numbers would be as good if not better than Conley's especially going forward.

Conley was great this year when he played, but that is the point. "When he played." He is going to be 34 by the start of next season and has been very injury prone the last several seasons. I expect the Jazz to resign him, but it is a situation where you hold your breath and hope for the best. His body is going to continue to break down as he gets older.



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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by 3rdGenAggie » June 22nd, 2021, 10:02 pm

I'd love to see Lonzo Ball with the Jazz. LaVar, not so much but he's better than he used to be at least. I don't know how they'd get him, but he'd solve some problems on the defensive end. It's tough having two 6'1 guys in the back court.

Lonzo isn't nearly the offensive player Conley is, but would likely make up for it defensively and I could see him succeeding here. The best chance would be a sign-and-trade which would mean he'd have to essentially choose the Jazz...which is unlikely.


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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by Aggie formerly in Hawaii » June 22nd, 2021, 11:02 pm

3rdGenAggie wrote:
June 22nd, 2021, 10:02 pm
I'd love to see Lonzo Ball with the Jazz. LaVar, not so much but he's better than he used to be at least. I don't know how they'd get him, but he'd solve some problems on the defensive end. It's tough having two 6'1 guys in the back court.

Lonzo isn't nearly the offensive player Conley is, but would likely make up for it defensively and I could see him succeeding here. The best chance would be a sign-and-trade which would mean he'd have to essentially choose the Jazz...which is unlikely.
He isn't but he did take a big step last year and is 11 years younger.

Obviously there is more to the game than raw stats, but here is how the compare from last year:

Lonzo Ball 14.6 ppg on 41% from the field and 38% from 3. 5.7 apg, 4.8 rpg, 1.5 spg, .6 bpg
Mike Conley 16.2 ppg on 44% from the field and 41% from 3. 6.0 apg, 3.5 rpg, 1.4 spg, .2 bpg

Lonzo should get better over the next few years as Conley declines. I do expect the Jazz to bring Conley back, I just hope it isn't more than 2 years.
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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by NVAggie » June 23rd, 2021, 10:31 am

The Jazz will overpay for Conley. They have no choice.



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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by 3rdGenAggie » June 23rd, 2021, 12:40 pm

NVAggie wrote:
June 23rd, 2021, 10:31 am
The Jazz will overpay for Conley. They have no choice.
I feel very confident this will be the case. There's just no cap space to sign anybody worthwhile from outside the franchise.

I totally understand why they signed early, but it would have been great if Rudy and Donovan waited until this summer to sign their max deals. The Jazz would have had huge money to spend in free agency and then just use Bird Rights to max Rudy and Donovan (assuming Ryan Smith would be willing to open the checkbook for 3 max contracts).


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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by 3rdGenAggie » June 23rd, 2021, 5:30 pm

I was thinking, Chris Paul brings up strong feelings, but if the Jazz got CP3 instead of Conley they win a championship. I like Conley, but CP3 on this team would be straight up perfect.


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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by FeartheFro » June 23rd, 2021, 5:43 pm

Remember when Chris Paul’s contract was being discussed as the “worst contract” in the NBA. Can’t stand him, but damn, what an influence he has had on a young Phoenix team.


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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by NVAggie » June 23rd, 2021, 8:31 pm

Should have taken CP3 over D Will



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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by Yossarian » June 25th, 2021, 12:03 pm

Here's my theory of why the Jazz won't win it all with Mitchell as the top scorer:

Playoff games typically get more physical and bogged down in half-court play in the playoffs. This wears on smaller players and bigger guys can double-team the smaller players and really get them out of their rhythm. They also create matchup problems defensively for the smaller players. In the last 40 years, there have only been two guys under 6'5" lead their teams to NBA championships - Isaiah Thomas and Steph Curry. Every other championship team has been led by bigger guys that can take the physical play of the playoffs and were big enough and athletic enough to lead their teams, even if they weren't always the top scorer. Allen Iverson was incredible in leading his teams to the Finals, but he couldn't get them over the hump.

Three of the top 4 scorers for the Jazz were under 6'3" this year. That is not a recipe for winning a championship. If the Jazz want to win, they need to get bigger players (6'6" and above) that can take on high scoring loads consistently. Mitchell can be a part of a championship team, but he won't be the leading scorer on one. At least that is my theory.



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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by Yossarian » June 25th, 2021, 12:38 pm

Interesting thing to think about:

In the last 40 years, only two teams have won the NBA title that did not have one of the following players on its roster:

Magic Johnson
Larry Bird
Michael Jordan
Isaiah Thomas
Hakeem Olajuwon
Tim Duncan
Shaquille O'Neil
Steph Curry
Lebron James

That's 95% of the NBA titles in the last 40 years going through one of those nine players.
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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by brownjeans » June 25th, 2021, 1:28 pm

NBA is funny... people tend to focus on stars and think superstars win championships. Perhaps championship teams create superstars.

Look at that list, how many of those players won with just run-of-the-mill NBA players on their team? Not many. Most those teams have multiple hall of famers. Basketball is still a team sport.



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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by Yossarian » June 25th, 2021, 2:12 pm

brownjeans wrote:
June 25th, 2021, 1:28 pm
NBA is funny... people tend to focus on stars and think superstars win championships. Perhaps championship teams create superstars.

Look at that list, how many of those players won with just run-of-the-mill NBA players on their team? Not many. Most those teams have multiple hall of famers. Basketball is still a team sport.
for sure it is a team sport. Closer inspection of that list show that they are typically big guys - 6-6 and taller. Their supporting cast came in all shapes and sizes, but the superstars were all typically big, athletic guys that were good at basketball (Curry and Thomas being the exceptions). This goes back to my post just above it - I don't think Donovan Mitchell will win an NBA championship with a team on which he is the leading scorer. I think he could be the No.2 or 3 scorer on a championship team, but he needs a bigger player to step up and take over the leading role. And like you said, a stronger supporting cast.

Is it possible a superstar demands so much attention that he allows the supporting cast to succeed?



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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by sancho839 » June 25th, 2021, 2:38 pm

Yossarian wrote:
June 25th, 2021, 2:12 pm
brownjeans wrote:
June 25th, 2021, 1:28 pm
NBA is funny... people tend to focus on stars and think superstars win championships. Perhaps championship teams create superstars.

Look at that list, how many of those players won with just run-of-the-mill NBA players on their team? Not many. Most those teams have multiple hall of famers. Basketball is still a team sport.
for sure it is a team sport. Closer inspection of that list show that they are typically big guys - 6-6 and taller. Their supporting cast came in all shapes and sizes, but the superstars were all typically big, athletic guys that were good at basketball (Curry and Thomas being the exceptions). This goes back to my post just above it - I don't think Donovan Mitchell will win an NBA championship with a team on which he is the leading scorer. I think he could be the No.2 or 3 scorer on a championship team, but he needs a bigger player to step up and take over the leading role. And like you said, a stronger supporting cast.

Is it possible a superstar demands so much attention that he allows the supporting cast to succeed?
Interestingly, the last player to win Finals MVP that was under 6-6 was Tony Parker in 2007.



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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by brownjeans » June 25th, 2021, 6:21 pm

Yossarian wrote:
June 25th, 2021, 2:12 pm
brownjeans wrote:
June 25th, 2021, 1:28 pm
NBA is funny... people tend to focus on stars and think superstars win championships. Perhaps championship teams create superstars.

Look at that list, how many of those players won with just run-of-the-mill NBA players on their team? Not many. Most those teams have multiple hall of famers. Basketball is still a team sport.
for sure it is a team sport. Closer inspection of that list show that they are typically big guys - 6-6 and taller. Their supporting cast came in all shapes and sizes, but the superstars were all typically big, athletic guys that were good at basketball (Curry and Thomas being the exceptions). This goes back to my post just above it - I don't think Donovan Mitchell will win an NBA championship with a team on which he is the leading scorer. I think he could be the No.2 or 3 scorer on a championship team, but he needs a bigger player to step up and take over the leading role. And like you said, a stronger supporting cast.

Is it possible a superstar demands so much attention that he allows the supporting cast to succeed?
So either Bucs or Clips to win this year? The other two teams have a leading scorer who is too short - but there are exceptions.

I think you have a valid point, but I think the NBA is different than it was even a few years ago. The game seems to favor a different kind of player than it used to. If the game has changed then it makes sense that Steph is winning championships as a short leading scorer and if the Suns or Hawks win it would add data to the game-is-different-now theory.
But still, if you're comparing two players with the same skills and one is five inches taller than the other, go with the taller guy.

What if the Jazz put Dame on the team with Mitchell? That's a lot of firepower, but both are under 6'6".



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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by Imakeitrain » June 26th, 2021, 4:52 pm

Yossarian wrote:
June 25th, 2021, 12:38 pm
Interesting thing to think about:

In the last 40 years, only two teams have won the NBA title that did not have one of the following players on its roster:

Magic Johnson
Larry Bird
Michael Jordan
Isaiah Thomas
Hakeem Olajuwon
Tim Duncan
Shaquille O'Neil
Steph Curry
Lebron James

That's 95% of the NBA titles in the last 40 years going through one of those nine players.
Pistons and Celtics being the two that won w/o one?


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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by brownjeans » June 26th, 2021, 5:41 pm

Imakeitrain wrote:
June 26th, 2021, 4:52 pm
Yossarian wrote:
June 25th, 2021, 12:38 pm
Interesting thing to think about:

In the last 40 years, only two teams have won the NBA title that did not have one of the following players on its roster:

Magic Johnson
Larry Bird
Michael Jordan
Isaiah Thomas
Hakeem Olajuwon
Tim Duncan
Shaquille O'Neil
Steph Curry
Lebron James

That's 95% of the NBA titles in the last 40 years going through one of those nine players.
Pistons and Celtics being the two that won w/o one?
Raptors & Mavericks too



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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by OKAggie » June 28th, 2021, 10:50 am

brownjeans wrote:
June 26th, 2021, 5:41 pm
Imakeitrain wrote:
June 26th, 2021, 4:52 pm
Yossarian wrote:
June 25th, 2021, 12:38 pm
Interesting thing to think about:

In the last 40 years, only two teams have won the NBA title that did not have one of the following players on its roster:

Magic Johnson
Larry Bird
Michael Jordan
Isaiah Thomas
Hakeem Olajuwon
Tim Duncan
Shaquille O'Neil
Steph Curry
Lebron James

That's 95% of the NBA titles in the last 40 years going through one of those nine players.
Pistons and Celtics being the two that won w/o one?
Raptors & Mavericks too
...or the 09 and 10 Lakers champs. Kobe belongs on that list as much as Hakeem or Isiah.

... or the '83 Sixers with Moses and Dr. J.

So that's 33 out of 40. Still interesting but your point is losing a little luster.


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3rdGenAggie
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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by 3rdGenAggie » June 28th, 2021, 3:09 pm

Add Kobe and Kawhi to the list and it goes to 36 out of 40 championships. That's 90% rather than 95% and 11 players rather than 9, but the point still stands.


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Re: NAR: Jazz Next Steps

Post by GeoAg » June 28th, 2021, 4:49 pm

Take away Hakeem and Duncan and Shaq and add Robert Horry :shock:


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