http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/08/18 ... z1VSIyIGce

If and when A&M makes the move, TCU has already been informed to not expect an invite.

Also mentions BYU being the choice to replace A&M, but that part sounds like his own opinion.

ViAggie wrote:that's not the first place I've seen byu's name mentioned. Could be interesting. No surprise TCU isn't in the running though, TCU probably said "uuuhhh ok" when they heard the news. The B12 will not stay at 9, that I can guarntee you.

What makes you so sure they Big 12 won't remain at 9? Neither BYU nor any other school delivers enough TV sets to make expansion worthwhile to its existing members. The only reason to expand would be if ESPN threatens to cancel their TV deal if they don't expand, and the latest word is that ESPN is unlikely to do that. So my bet is that the Big 12 remains at 9.

Their current contract (per ESPN Dallas) is dependent on maintaining at least 10 teams. So if they don't add one more when A&M leaves ESPN basically doesn't have to pay them. Sure they can redo parts of their contract to allow for nine members, but if they are going to redo the contract the Big 12 would likely try to get a bigger payout. To avoid the full renegotiation now instead of a few years down the road I would think ESPN would try and do everything it can to maintain the current contract and this dictates at least 10 teams.

Why would the Big 12 make it official and public to TCU that they shouldn't expect an invite?

AgSpaceCase wrote:Their current contract (per ESPN Dallas) is dependent on maintaining at least 10 teams. So if they don't add one more when A&M leaves ESPN basically doesn't have to pay them. Sure they can redo parts of their contract to allow for nine members, but if they are going to redo the contract the Big 12 would likely try to get a bigger payout. To avoid the full renegotiation now instead of a few years down the road I would think ESPN would try and do everything it can to maintain the current contract and this dictates at least 10 teams.

i believe they are trying to get espn/fox to keep the payout unchanged if they stay at 9. it may be they'll wait on expansion until next summer or beyond if their TV partners are in no hurry to get back to 10. i would guess they want time to evaluate all of the potential additions and have some serious discussions about going to 12 teams.

they really want ND. if they even have a small chance at landing them, you would think the TV partners would be willing to let them work on making it happen. one rumor is they'll bring in at least one BE team w/ ND to sweeten the deal. Pitt is the likely candidate. if it's true they are working on this, IMO, it won't get done quickly and the TV partners would be willing to give them plenty of time. A&M won't leave until the 2013 season anyway. and even though all signs point to A&M to the SEC, it's not 100% certain. it could be TX & the Big-12 will make some concession to keep them in the fold. i wouldn't be shocked if TX dropped their network. it's going nowhere. no cable, dish or direct TV network has picked it up yet.

Per an ESPN Dallas interview I heard, their contract has a clause requiring the conference to have at least 10 members. They go below ten and ESPN doesn't have to pay them legally. They will go back up to 10 and probably if ESPN gets their way they will go to 12 so that ESPN has more content, more markets, and a CCG that can bring in money. Sure the conference might like to stay at 9 but they have no leverage to do so. Just staying at 9 and signing a new contract with another TV provider would be huge breach of contract. Not doing anything risks losing a whole lot of money.

AgSpaceCase wrote:Per an ESPN Dallas interview I heard, their contract has a clause requiring the conference to have at least 10 members. They go below ten and ESPN doesn't have to pay them legally. They will go back up to 10 and probably if ESPN gets their way they will go to 12 so that ESPN has more content, more markets, and a CCG that can bring in money. Sure the conference might like to stay at 9 but they have no leverage to do so. Just staying at 9 and signing a new contract with another TV provider would be huge breach of contract. Not doing anything risks losing a whole lot of money.

Actually, I would say that the Big 12 conference (i.e. Texas) has enormous leverage in this negotiation. All they need to say is, "Let us stay at 9 or else we are dropping the LHN and joining the PAC-12." From ESPN's point of view, the worst possible outcome is that the Big 12 folds, so at the end of the day I think they are going to do whatever Texas wants. Well, the Big 12 may not get away with keeping the current contract, but if ESPN reduces the payout by 1/10th, I'm sure Texas wouldn't complain. (Since the revenue is not shared equally in the Big 12, Texas would probably end up with an even larger piece of the pie than they would have had if A&M hadn't left the conference.) So maybe the Big 12 will end up adding another team, but I certainly don't think it's a done deal.

Entirely possible. But is Texas going go risk giving up 15 to 20 mill just for that gamble. Besides pick a replacement school that will support Texas' agenda but isn't a huge threat for their BCS path keep all their money. Seems to me like less of a gamble. Besides all reports I read lead to an invitation coming when A&M leaves.

AgSpaceCase wrote:Entirely possible. But is Texas going go risk giving up 15 to 20 mill just for that gamble. Besides pick a replacement school that will support Texas' agenda but isn't a huge threat for their BCS path keep all their money. Seems to me like less of a gamble. Besides all reports I read lead to an invitation coming when A&M leaves.

Well, you're assuming that ESPN wants to play hardball in the first place. All the current expansion candidates would add very few TV sets, so I can't really imagine ESPN demanding that the Big 12 add more schools over Texas' objection. My guess is that if Texas doesn't want any more schools added, they will get what they want.

The camidates I've seen mentioned dobring quite a few tv sets, even if they are long shots. ND, BYU, and AFA all have lanrge national followings and are in areas without current B12 penetration. I also suspect them to go after Luisville do to already being BCS and a good travel partner for ISU. Another decent sized new market. I know Texas gets what that want but that doesn't change contracts and they are used to being in a big conference. I think they may actually want to add, if nothing else to prove the viability of the big 12-2.

AgSpaceCase wrote:The camidates I've seen mentioned dobring quite a few tv sets, even if they are long shots. ND, BYU, and AFA all have lanrge national followings and are in areas without current B12 penetration. I also suspect them to go after Luisville do to already being BCS and a good travel partner for ISU. Another decent sized new market. I know Texas gets what that want but that doesn't change contracts and they are used to being in a big conference. I think they may actually want to add, if nothing else to prove the viability of the big 12-2.

Fine, if they can get Notre Dame, they expand, sure. Likewise if they can get Florida, they expand, but that's not going to happen, either. But please don't tell me that you believe the Zoob fans when they talk about their "large national following." There was a thread about this somewhere at one point: BYU's nationally televised games actually consistently draw poor ratings even compared to a school like Boise State (much less virtually any BCS program). And Air Force's following is even more pathetic. Moreover, neither school is a research university, which would make Texas unhappy. The bottom line is that I can't see ESPN trying to antagonize Texas by forcing them to take a school they don't want. If the Big 12 falls apart, ESPN loses a lot more than Texas does, so ESPN is going to do whatever they can to make sure that doesn't happen.

I see don't see why Texas is pushing to only stay at nine. Other than on this board I have heard nothing about possibly staying at nine. Maybe it is just assumed that expansion is in the wings. Maybe the fact that there has not been a BCS conference stay at nine schools for at least a decade. It is always 8, 10, or 12 Sure nine is better for football but absolutely terrible for Olympic sports. No travel partners and all. The Big 10 went with 11 for a while but that was always awkward. Football is steeped in tradition and the big boys don't traditionally have 9 teams.