Interesting article on Expansion rumors

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hipsterdoofus21
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Interesting article on Expansion rumors

Post by hipsterdoofus21 » August 19th, 2011, 10:32 am

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegespo ... -and-more/
San Jose Mercury News, which claims to have multiple sources, talks about what to expect to come out of all this realignment.
Most interesting points IMO:
--SEC wants new states, so Va Tech, UNC, Missouri, and West Virginia are the most likely candidates.
--A 16-team SEC in today’s market would command upwards of $500 million per year.
--UNC and Duke could possible move to the Big Ten in the future, if UNC turns down the SEC
--The super conferences will come, but ESPN and Fox are fighting this possibility. It also won't happen for a while. The SEC will move to 14 first.
--The Big 12 will probably stay at 9 teams if ESPN is ok with it, and they believe ESPN will be. Houston will be added if the Texas legislature forces it.
--ACC and Big East could someday merge their leftovers if they're poached as predicted.



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Re: Interesting article on Expansion rumors

Post by StanfordAggie » August 19th, 2011, 10:51 am

Yeah, most of this sounds reasonable to me. However, I say there is absolutely no way that UNC goes to the SEC right now. If they change conferences at all, they will be going to the Big 10, and I doubt they would consider that unless the ACC were breaking up. The rivalries with Duke/Virginia/NC State have been going on for decades, and nobody wants to discontinue them. And UNC definitely isn't going anywhere without Duke; the rights to the UNC/Duke basketball game are far too valuable to give up. (Indeed, that's another reason that Duke and UNC are attractive to the Big 10. Aside from the additional revenue for the BTN if it expands into North Carolina, the rights to the Duke/UNC basketball game is probably worth millions by itself. I don't know for sure, but I'm guessing that's easily the most valuable basketball rivalry game in the country). Also, Duke/UNC are a great fit for the Big 10 academically. Still, I have a hard time imagining that UNC/Duke will leave the ACC behind unless it gets raided to the point where it is no longer an attractive home.



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Re: Interesting article on Expansion rumors

Post by hipsterdoofus21 » August 19th, 2011, 11:04 am

Yeah the article said that about UNC, if anywhere, they'd go with Duke to the Big Ten. But as far as rivalries go with NC State and Virginia, or Maryland, the conference moves of A&M, Utah, and Nebraska show how much programs really care about their rivals.



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Re: Interesting article on Expansion rumors

Post by ViAggie » August 19th, 2011, 12:55 pm

word on the street is that the big 12 will NOT stay at 9 and that byu is the most likely candidate followed by AFA (this is not just wishfull thinking on my end on the AFA thing). That seems to be the concesus out of B12 country. They will however, stay at 10. So you heard it here from me (and you've probably heard/read it other places too), A&M leaves byu replaces, byu turns down, AFA replaces. That's what I'm hearing... :noidea:


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Re: Interesting article on Expansion rumors

Post by StanfordAggie » August 19th, 2011, 1:38 pm

hipsterdoofus21 wrote:Yeah the article said that about UNC, if anywhere, they'd go with Duke to the Big Ten. But as far as rivalries go with NC State and Virginia, or Maryland, the conference moves of A&M, Utah, and Nebraska show how much programs really care about their rivals.
Actually, one of the reasons that Nebraska was so unhappy in the Big 12 is because they no longer played Oklahoma every year (and the annual Thanksgiving Day Nebraska/Oklahoma game died when the Big 12 was created). But point taken. As someone who currently lives in the heart of ACC country, I can tell you there would be major backlash (both from the fans and the state legislature) if UNC were to suddenly decide that they were no longer playing NC State or UVa. That said, I'm sure they would be willing to face the backlash if the ACC were significantly weakened (or maybe even if the Big 10 offered them enough money). But I still maintain that UNC won't go anywhere without Duke. If the Duke/UNC basketball game were discontinued, there wouldn't just be backlash; there would be outright rioting on the streets at both universities. Plus the TV rights to that game are worth way too much to give up.



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Re: Interesting article on Expansion rumors

Post by bpd » August 19th, 2011, 2:18 pm

SoCalAggie,

What if Missouri leaves as well, which there is a good chance that happens.



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Re: Interesting article on Expansion rumors

Post by ViAggie » August 19th, 2011, 4:20 pm

Your guess is as good as mine. BUT if the B12 lost two teams, look for Bebe to talk the conference into expanding BACK to 12, that's my guess. Otherwise it could just be an offer to byu and possibly AFA


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Re: Interesting article on Expansion rumors

Post by renolutionary » August 22nd, 2011, 3:19 pm

UNC is in no position to move with the trouble they have comming from the NCAA. What conference is willing to take that mess on?



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Re: Interesting article on Expansion rumors

Post by StanfordAggie » August 22nd, 2011, 6:14 pm

renolutionary wrote:UNC is in no position to move with the trouble they have comming from the NCAA. What conference is willing to take that mess on?
Lol! Are you serious? It has the largest fan base in one of the largest and fastest-growing states, for starters. One study reported that UNC's basketball program was the most valuable basketball brand in the country by a big margin (and that it was more valuable than all but a small handful of football programs in the country). And while football historically hasn't been UNC's forte, we're in the middle of a $70 million upgrade to our facilities with the ultimate goal of fielding a football team that is a national contender. So I'm pretty sure that both the SEC and the Big 10 would be happy to take us despite our recent NCAA problems, particularly if we came as part of a package with Duke. (The TV rights to the Duke/UNC basketball game alone would probably come close to generating enough revenue to make expansion worthwhile even if UNC didn't even field a football team.)



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Re: Interesting article on Expansion rumors

Post by NVAggie » August 22nd, 2011, 6:54 pm

A Stanford education isn't that good.... tell us what you think Stanford.



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Re: Interesting article on Expansion rumors

Post by ChowderAggie » August 22nd, 2011, 7:14 pm

Anyone know if the mods at Texas A&M Scout are reliable? If they are correct, what will the Big 12 likely do?

My guess is that BYU may find itself in the unbelievable position of being invited to the Big 12 AND being able to keep their BYUTV (or whatever it's called). I don't see the Big 12 only adding BYU because this would be (IMO) a poor trade for Texas A&M. However, some combination could potentially create an even stronger Big 12 - say Notre Dame, BYU, Pitt, Air Force. I recognize that Notre Dame is probably a "no way" to the Big 12 - but it is interesting to have a group of teams that would like flexible scheduling and be allowed to have a separate television deal in the expansion discussion.

I also wonder if any of this will ever trickle down to impact Utah State.



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