Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment?

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Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment?

Post by Steve509 » August 17th, 2011, 12:49 pm

IMO, this is how things will end up in the short term:

Big-12 - Will replace A&M but will not go any further. They will try to get ND but probably won't be successful. Their pitch to them will be the stability of a major conference and ND will be able to keep their own network. Once ND turns them down they'll try for a BE or ACC team. If that doesn't pan out they'll go with BYU, perhaps for FB only. If BYU turns them down, even for an all sports invite, they invite Houston. Houston would certainly accept. AFA, or any other MW program won't get an invite.

SEC- Gets A&M and another program and sticks with 14, at least for awhile.

PAC-12 - No additions.

ACC/BE -No opinion until one or the other loses a team or two.

C-USA - If they lose Houston, they'll look to replace them with the largest market team they can get. They know they won't get as good of a program as Houston, so they'll just invite a large market team. LA Tech or NMSU won't get a call.

MW- No changes unless a new TV deal comes with it. There isn't a program available to them that helps with AQ status and the best they can hope for is the slight chance they'll get a 2 year provisional status.

It appears that the MW and Comcast/CBS sports TV deal talks have been put on hold until this latest round of conference changes is over.

Also, the C-USA v ESPN lawsuit has ended. ESPN gets the CCG and C-USA gets a slight pay raise. Fox gets their regular season games. (this may need to be updated but it's the best info that i've seen so far)



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Re: Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment

Post by wacfan08 » August 17th, 2011, 12:56 pm

I don't understand why people think ND will even listen. What do they have to gain? BCS ? no Bowl agreements ? no Basketball strong conference ? no Money? no Better TV contract? no Recruiting? no National coverage? no.

I just don't see why people think ND will listen. Fact is if ND was to go undefeated in football they would be in the title game.
I think they went to a BCS game a few years ago with 2 loses.



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Re: Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment

Post by alum93 » August 17th, 2011, 1:04 pm

That's certainly the most realistic outcome - short term. Get A&M now so you have a big school in Texas. The other school can come from Big East or ACC. I see no reason to jump to 16 now.

- If more than 1 Big 12 school leaves, it opens the door for Air Force. That's the only chance of MW changing right now.

- Conf USA has a little more risk because even without a loss to the SEC by the Big East, they could lose a school or 2 on the eastern side. There options would be SB or WAC and they will just get back to 12. I could see CUSA making a push for UTSA simply based on location, school size, and location. Who else has a 60k+ stadium in their backyard - not to mention in the middle of a football crazy state with the population to back it up.

- While i agree we may not see a major change, OU and Texas are holding the Big 12 cards. Either one of them makes a change, and you will see major shuffling. OU can go either east or west. Texas can go indy. I don't think it happens this year, if at all.

- I think it's 50/50 the WAC can keep all 10 schools for 2013. In my opinion it can withstand losses of 1,2,or 3 schools and replace with FCS. Not an optimal scenario, but it is what it is. We shall see.



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Re: Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment

Post by wacfan08 » August 17th, 2011, 1:10 pm

I think CUSA is more likely go after FAU or FIU then LA Tech. I think they want another team in Florida.



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Re: Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment

Post by ViAggie » August 17th, 2011, 1:52 pm

I agree mostly. I think;

Big 12 loses A&M to the SEC, replaces them with the best school they can get to join, which will be Houston (I wonder if TCU would consider even though they've never played a game against a Big East team?).
SEC invites one more from the Big East (maybe ACC, but doubtful).
Big East invites Cent. Florida immediately (and maybe one more if they were to lose TCU???)
CUSA invites Troy and Middle Ten State. or some FCS school in a large market we don't know about. NMSU and/or LA Tech a no go for the reasons discussed (small market/Utep would block NMSU).
MW - no loss, no gain
PAC-12 no gains
WAC - no loss, adds Eastern Oregon for Womens La Cross and Softball :joking:


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Re: Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment

Post by Steve509 » August 17th, 2011, 1:58 pm

based upon what i've been reading, i think Texas would prefer to remain in the Big-12 even w/o A&M. if that conference falls apart, i think they'd rather join the PAC-(#?) than go indy. they don't seem to like the indy option, even with their own network. also, the network hasn't worked out nearly as well as they thought it would. no one is picking it up.



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Re: Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment

Post by hipsterdoofus21 » August 17th, 2011, 2:16 pm

CUSA will replace any departing members with N. Texas on the west side, and a florida school already mentioned on the east if UCF is taken by the Big East.



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Re: Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment

Post by Steve509 » August 17th, 2011, 3:53 pm

hipsterdoofus21 wrote:CUSA will replace any departing members with N. Texas on the west side, and a florida school already mentioned on the east if UCF is taken by the Big East.
UCF may be in trouble with the NCAA. If so, wouldn't you think that the BE would pass on them? Houston, SMU & ECU are probably glad UCF is having problems.

I'm guessing Houston fans are thinking they have a legit shot at getting a call form either the Big-12 or Big East.



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Re: Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment

Post by hipsterdoofus21 » August 17th, 2011, 6:17 pm

hadn't heard about UCF having problems, so yeah, that might hurt their chances.



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Re: Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment

Post by Steve509 » August 17th, 2011, 7:32 pm

hipsterdoofus21 wrote:hadn't heard about UCF having problems, so yeah, that might hurt their chances.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... iry-letter



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Re: Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment

Post by GeoAg » August 17th, 2011, 10:22 pm

No, I don't agree. The only thing you can predict about conference realignment across several teams and conferences is that it is unpredictable. Things are already moving in ways I don't understand and can't explain at this point. That is not just because I am getting older :-).


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Re: Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment

Post by LKGates » August 18th, 2011, 12:38 am

GeoAg wrote:No, I don't agree. The only thing you can predict about conference realignment across several teams and conferences is that it is unpredictable. Things are already moving in ways I don't understand and can't explain at this point. That is not just because I am getting older :-).
Amen, brother. We've been indulging in euclidian thinking in a fractal football universe.


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Re: Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment

Post by Aggieiester » August 18th, 2011, 9:11 am

Pretty close, here's my try:

The tail represents money


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Analysis from the SEC

[youtube][/youtube]



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Re: Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment

Post by sammyhagar » August 19th, 2011, 9:36 am

I do, however, have problems with your spelling.... :lol:

:rock: :utah: :state:



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Re: Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment

Post by hipsterdoofus21 » August 19th, 2011, 9:46 am

Saw that "SEC Guy rant" on the bobcatreport board, it's pretty dang funny and I highly recommend watching it!



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Re: Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment

Post by BigBlueDart » August 19th, 2011, 10:07 am

hipsterdoofus21 wrote:Saw that "SEC Guy rant" on the bobcatreport board, it's pretty dang funny and I highly recommend watching it!
I watched/listened to said rant on your recommendation. Wow. Just... Wow.



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Re: Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment

Post by hipsterdoofus21 » August 19th, 2011, 10:13 am

Aren't you glad you did BBD?

For those of you who are at work and worry about youtube videos, just listen to the video and minimize the page. The pictures that go along with it can be funny, but some aren't work appropriate and its still a good listen.



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Re: Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment

Post by BigBlueDart » August 19th, 2011, 10:36 am

I feel a little better after discovering that this guy is just a gag caller, but have to admit that he fooled me.



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Re: Do you agree with my assessment of conference realinment

Post by hipsterdoofus21 » August 19th, 2011, 10:50 am

Yeah, me too.
It's brilliant.



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