why the Big 12 will NOT die (broken record)

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ViAggie
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why the Big 12 will NOT die (broken record)

Post by ViAggie » August 15th, 2011, 7:31 pm

I know I sound like a broken record but I find myself being the voice of reason on this topic. The Big 12 will not die. Won't happen, never, nada, isn't going to happen. BUT, but, but.... WHY???? You ask? Well consider these solid freekin reasons:

1. There will be no mass exodus. If the Big 10 hasn't taken Mizzu by now, why now? Because they don't need them, that's why.
2. The PAC 12 will not expand anytime soon. They've already negotiated TV contracts, play off games, etc. They never wanted the baggage from the rest of of the B12 schools, they just wanted the grand prize. The only reason they invited others was to try and force Texas. Didn't work. They PAC would probably consider Texas and one more maybe, but again, why? Texas can demand it's own TV deal, they don't need the PAC. Wont happen.
3. Where are the others going to go? The MWC? :lol: Never in a million years.
4. Lets say 4 or 5 teams leave the Big 12, you know a few wont be going, Baylor, OSU, KSU, et al. Baggage right? They can invite whom ever they want to fill the losses from the teams that MAY get picked up by other conferences. They can pick off CUSA schools, MWC schools, and hell if that didn't work, WAC and SBC schools. Any of those schools would wet themselves with joy at the prospect of joining even a HEAVILY watered down Big 12!
5. WAC rule applies for BB, so they keep their auto bid... but even if they couldn't they wouldn't need it!
6. They still get to count outgoing schools for their BCS numbers! Which is why they would successfully be able to pick off schools from the MW and CUSA, et al if they wanted.

Not big 12 related but I'm TIRED AS HELL of this one:

7. No one is joining the MW from the Big 12 NEVER, never guna happen EVER! CUSA schools wont join either, I've already laid out why ad nauseam. If they could have, they would have already have gone after Houston and someone else by now, and they would have gone to 12. The reality is that none of those schools would join the MW at this point. Run a simple cost/benefit analysis to see why, it's a no brainer! Similar TV contract money, buy-out to leave, most MW schools in Mnt. and Pac time zones, etc., etc.

So just quit it! I hear someone say the big 12 is dying I'm driving to your house to slap you! :nono:


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Re: why the Big 12 will NOT die (broken record)

Post by wacfan08 » August 15th, 2011, 7:35 pm

I agree with most of this... I don't think the big 12 will die either... But people in the media are saying there is a chance.



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Re: why the Big 12 will NOT die (broken record)

Post by Steve509 » August 15th, 2011, 8:01 pm

i don't think it will die either, but it is possible. if the majority of the members were to decide to leave, they could (i suppose) vote to disband the conference. the reason for doing so would be to avoid the exit penalty which was( i think) 9 million for Neb & CO and was posted somewhere else to now be 30 million (i haven't confirmed that figure).

from what i've read, the huge buyout is one of the holdups for aTm moving to the SEC. they want to negotiate a lower buyout.
they claim to have legit reasons for being able to do so.



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Re: why the Big 12 will NOT die (broken record)

Post by AgSpaceCase » August 15th, 2011, 8:08 pm

The conference will only die if at least 7 of 10 schools vote to disband (2/3 majority I believe). Would take some obscene alignment of the stars to occur. Not likely ... Not impossibly but highly improbable.


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Re: why the Big 12 will NOT die (broken record)

Post by ViAggie » August 15th, 2011, 9:20 pm

sorry for my rant, I suppose anything (to an extent) is possible. I still stand firmly by number 7 though... don't make me come b-slap you :joking:


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Re: why the Big 12 will NOT die (broken record)

Post by AgSpaceCase » August 15th, 2011, 9:24 pm

I would never disagree with number seven. The MW Homers are deluding themselves to think otherwise. In the ridiculously tiny possibility that the Big 12 does collapse CUSA would be the preferred home for any schools left out in the cold which immediately makes it more likely that someone leaves the MW for CUSA which would make me laugh sooo hard.


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Re: why the Big 12 will NOT die (broken record)

Post by SuperiorBlueDiver » August 15th, 2011, 11:19 pm

I also doubt that it will die but I think there is a chance that it could. If the SEC goes to 16 it could trigger the other BCS conferences to try to do the same. Afterall the SEC is the "Jones'" that everyone is trying to keep up with. The ACC would get a few teams taken away by the SEC. They would in turn poach the Big East (again) .... Texas, Texas Tech, OU, and OSU would be likely candidates for the PAC 12 if they wanted to keep pace with the SEC and ACC going to 16. The Big East would do the same by adding Kansas, K-State, Iowa State, ect...

My question is this: If all of this happens (long shot) what will Baylor do? I believe C-USA and the MW would then fight over Baylor. The MW would love to get Baylor, Houston, SMU, and UTEP and that would really strengthen that conference. But then would they want to go to 16 too so they can pretend to be one of the Big Boys?

All speculative but if the SEC goes to 16 I would bet on it being the beginning of chaos. If they stay at 14 or less it only delays the chaos a bit. The chaos will happen eventually. We all know it.



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Re: why the Big 12 will NOT die (broken record)

Post by ViAggie » August 16th, 2011, 7:57 am

As I said, this stuff doesn't happen all at once, so lets take your scenario that all these teams start exiting the Big 12, before that happens the Big 12 will likely be adding teams, so that every time someone left, they add more teams. It wont happen all at once. The MW was never w/o teams. They lost byu they added Fresno and Nevada, they lost TCU, they didn't stay at 9, they added Hawaii. One step ahead of the game. That's why we'll start to see the Big 12 adding teams soon, I said I thought they would try and go back to 12, and I bet they do for this very reason. So they'll just keep adding as they lose teams, my bet is that it becomes a Hybrid of CUSA and the MW, CUSA and the MW become the new WAC and Sun Belt, and Boise, Fresno and Reno fans are left doing this :bangwall: when Idaho becomes the 10th member :lol:


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Re: why the Big 12 will NOT die (broken record)

Post by SuperiorBlueDiver » August 16th, 2011, 8:56 am

ag4fr wrote:I agree. Attrition will likely come about in ones and twos and the B12 will react by bringing in a backfill.

The only scenario I see where the B12 completely implodes is the Doomsday Scenario where SEC, PAC, ACC, and B10+2 decide to split off and become their own upper echelon of FBS with 4 superconferences of 16 teams.
If that happens, things will get very interesting because there are currently 67 BCS conference member schools + Notre Dame being a founding member of the BCS. So there would be 68 BCS programs looking for 64 spots in the new power conferences.

This is basically what I was saying ViAggie. The SEC going to 16 could trigger this..... Could.



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Re: why the Big 12 will NOT die (broken record)

Post by AgSpaceCase » August 16th, 2011, 10:11 am

SuperiorBlueDiver wrote:
ag4fr wrote:I agree. Attrition will likely come about in ones and twos and the B12 will react by bringing in a backfill.

The only scenario I see where the B12 completely implodes is the Doomsday Scenario where SEC, PAC, ACC, and B10+2 decide to split off and become their own upper echelon of FBS with 4 superconferences of 16 teams.
If that happens, things will get very interesting because there are currently 67 BCS conference member schools + Notre Dame being a founding member of the BCS. So there would be 68 BCS programs looking for 64 spots in the new power conferences.

This is basically what I was saying ViAggie. The SEC going to 16 could trigger this..... Could.
Yes they could. but they would have to be coordinated and move quickly. The Big 12 TV contract has a provision about have at least 10 teams so to maintain their TV money they will do what they can to replace departing teams. So for the Big 12 to go away it would require either a) nearly simultaneous departures so that non departing schools don't get a chance to invite replacements, or b) they un-invite replacements in order to disband the league and therefore are subject to lawsuits from the invites schools who have committed to leave their conferences who now have no home.

Texas has stated they prefer a ten team big 12 to provide the best path to the national championship game. If Texas want it the Big 12 will provide. I just wonder who the ten teams are going to be when this is all said and done.


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