If the Big 12 dies.

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wacfan08
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If the Big 12 dies.

Post by wacfan08 » August 15th, 2011, 1:34 pm

Pat Forde of ESPN.com just said on Outside the Lines that there is a chance the Big 12 will die. (who would have thought the Big 12 would die before the WAC :crazy: )

Saying that it is likely that Mizzu will join aTm in the SEC ( Florida, SC, Georgia will block instate expansion) That PAC 12 will take Texas/Texas Tech/ OU/ OSU and that the Big East will likely pick up Kansas/ Kansas State/ Iowa State.

He said that some "other schools" would not join the Big 12 because the "B12 is doomed to failure because of the uneven setup that was put into place last year to save the conference."

Saying that this is going to be a major conference reshuffe.



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hipsterdoofus21
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Re: If the Big 12 dies.

Post by hipsterdoofus21 » August 15th, 2011, 2:01 pm

We can sure hope. You heard anything else from your Aggie sources wacfan? You can PM me anything you've heard.

The only thing about Mizzou going to the SEC is how will they split up the divisions? And what will keep them from becoming the first super conference by going to 16?

What's going to happen to Baylor?

I also have a hard time believing that the Big 10 will sit this one out. I think they'll take their pick of Pitt, Louisville, W. Virginia, Rutgers and Syracuse.

I would be surprised to see the Big 12 just up and die. I'm guessing we'll see some invites coming soon if the rumors are true. CUSA and the MWC will get picked apart.



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Re: If the Big 12 dies.

Post by wacfan08 » August 15th, 2011, 2:08 pm

I think everyone is just holding their breath at this time and waiting to see what happen. We kinda have to react to what happen not make it happen at this point. Whe aren't high enough on the food chain to make it happen.

Baylor ? Who knows? will the ACC raid the big east ? will the big east split football away from basketball ? will MWC get a new tv deal ? Will Houston leave CUSA? will CUSA expand in florida or take LA Tech and NMSU ? will AFA leave ? Will BYU do something ? Will the NCAA step in and start making rules to stop all this madness ?

I have no clue how this is going to shake out. I don't think anyone really does. Everyone is just worried about me, myself, and I.



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Re: If the Big 12 dies.

Post by idahorn » August 15th, 2011, 2:49 pm

i think if A&M goes to the SEC the odds are better of FSU going with them leaving the Big12 with 9 teams. Which i believe they will try to recruite 3 new teams. Here are my guesses were they would look Notre Dame (it would take some serious cash... but with the texas longhorn network, would still allow ND to have there network which they are working on). BYU...(which i would love only for the fact that i would get to see my longhorns every other yr), TCU (i know they are in the bigeast nxt yr but the big 12 would work better geographicly and historicly) then there has been rumors of Houston, Some think that Arkansas would jump ship from the Sec to rejoin the old SWC. I think as long as Texas wants to hold the big 12 together they will and can.



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Re: If the Big 12 dies.

Post by dogie » August 15th, 2011, 3:00 pm

hipsterdoofus21 wrote:We can sure hope. You heard anything else from your Aggie sources wacfan? You can PM me anything you've heard.

The only thing about Mizzou going to the SEC is how will they split up the divisions?
If MIssouri and Texas A&M join, you could avoid splitting up Alabama and Auburn by putting them in the east and putting Kentucky in the west. The west division would then be:
Texas A&M
Missouri
Arkansas
Kentucky
Louisiana State
Mississippi State
Mississippi
What's going to happen to Baylor?
I don't know. If the Big 12 really implodes and they are the last man standing, I guess they join C-USA or possibly the MWC.

I would be surprised to see the Big 12 just up and die. I'm guessing we'll see some invites coming soon if the rumors are true. CUSA and the MWC will get picked apart.
I would be surprised, too. If the PAC-12 wants to go to 16 and acts in parallel with the SEC, everything could happen so fast that the Big 12 won't have time to reload. If the Big 12 loses Missouri and Texas A&M at the same time, I fully expect Kansas, Kansas State and maybe Iowa State to try to jump ship immediately to the Big East (or some version of that conference that includes only football-playing schools), and I expect the Big East to facilitate that process.

If the PAC-12 takes their time, the Big 12 will just add a few schools from C-USA and the MWC.



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Re: If the Big 12 dies.

Post by alum93 » August 15th, 2011, 3:06 pm

Let's look at the 5 big boy conferences.

Pac 12 - They go to 16. Pull teams from Big 12. Superconference 1
SEC - They pull 2 from Big 12 and get to 14. Can add 2 more from ACC later on if necessary. Superconference 2

Now you have the Big 10, Big East, and ACC. With just a few teams those 3 conferences have enough for 2 16 team leagues. I give you superconferences 3 and 4.

So the Big 12, if it's down to say 4 teams, can either be absorbed into the above scenario, or can fight and add top MWC, top CUSA, and maybe BYU. Bingo, they still have AQ and they live to fight on. No idea what Kansas,K-State, Iowa St, Baylor prefer between those 2 options. Again, this is IF Pac 12 plucks a few of their schools.

What are options for MWC/C-USA. Option 1 is they both lose schools to the new Big 12 and refill with WAC and maybe a Sun Belt school or 2, while holding thier noses. Option 2 is if they lose enough schools, the MWC and CUSA can just merge and form a 5th or 6th huge conference. I won't call it a super conference because all the big programs will be gone, and whatever major money is coming down, along with elite playoff system, they won't be allowed to play in. Option 3 is the MWC can merge with WAC leftovers and CUSA with Sun Belt and we still get to 2 big conferences at the mid-major level, one in the west and the other one in the (south) east.

Is this fun or what? I cannot envision a scenario where a USU ends up in a stronger MWC, or NMSU in a stronger CUSA. But get enough movement going, and the MWC and CUSA will have to get their numbers up.

i'll hold off on predictions until i see if Missouri is indeed bolting. if it's just A&M from the Big 12, then changes maybe small for now.



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Re: If the Big 12 dies.

Post by dogie » August 15th, 2011, 3:23 pm

alum93 wrote:I cannot envision a scenario where a USU ends up in a stronger MWC, or NMSU in a stronger CUSA. But get enough movement going, and the MWC and CUSA will have to get their numbers up.
It is fairly, easy, however, to envision USU getting in a very nice version of the MWC.

The best scenario? It would involve Houston and Air Force being invited to the Big 12 or even the Big East. TCU would also remain in the Big East or join the Big 12. At least a couple of other C-USA schools would go elsewhere (likely the Big East).

This scenario would put the MWC at nine football-playing schools. The MWC could then invite USU at the tenth school. They could also invite USU, UTEP and one other to get to 12. I would assume that, at some point, UTEP would be willing to leave a sufficiently depleted C-USA. They would also probably not have an exit penalty if several other schools had already departed. The 12th school could be SMU or even Montana.

If the MWC loses only one, there is some doubt as to whether USU is invited. If they lose two - especially if those two are Air Force and Boise State - I think it is extremely likely that USU is invited.

If you would have asked me eighteen months ago what the perfect conference for USU would be, I would have said a 12-school MWC that didn't include Utah and BYU (I want USU to chart their own course), TCU (not regional and no history with them) and Air Force (no history with them and not a state school). That dream 12-school conference would be:

Wast
Hawaii
SDSU
Fresno State
UNLV
Nevada
Boise State

Eest
Montana
USU
Wyoming
Colroado State
New Mexico
UTEP

Well, there is at least a plausible scenario that results in this alignment. Unlikely, yes, but still possible.



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Re: If the Big 12 dies.

Post by renolutionary » August 15th, 2011, 3:28 pm

wacfan08 wrote:Saying that it is likely that Mizzu will join aTm in the SEC ( Florida, SC, Georgia will block instate expansion) That PAC 12 will take Texas/Texas Tech/ OU/ OSU and that the Big East will likely pick up Kansas/ Kansas State/ Iowa State.
I don't know if the 12PAC takes ut. the lhn is very very toxic.



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Re: If the Big 12 dies.

Post by alum93 » August 15th, 2011, 3:39 pm

dogie wrote:
alum93 wrote:I cannot envision a scenario where a USU ends up in a stronger MWC, or NMSU in a stronger CUSA. But get enough movement going, and the MWC and CUSA will have to get their numbers up.
It is fairly, easy, however, to envision USU getting in a very nice version of the MWC.

The best scenario? It would involve Houston and Air Force being invited to the Big 12 or even the Big East. TCU would also remain in the Big East or join the Big 12. At least a couple of other C-USA schools would go elsewhere (likely the Big East).

This scenario would put the MWC at nine football-playing schools. The MWC could then invite USU at the tenth school. They could also invite USU, UTEP and one other to get to 12. I would assume that, at some point, UTEP would be willing to leave a sufficiently depleted C-USA. They would also probably not have an exit penalty if several other schools had already departed. The 12th school could be SMU or even Montana.

If the MWC loses only one, there is some doubt as to whether USU is invited. If they lose two - especially if those two are Air Force and Boise State - I think it is extremely likely that USU is invited.

If you would have asked me eighteen months ago what the perfect conference for USU would be, I would have said a 12-school MWC that didn't include Utah and BYU (I want USU to chart their own course), TCU (not regional and no history with them) and Air Force (no history with them and not a state school). That dream 12-school conference would be:

Wast
Hawaii
SDSU
Fresno State
UNLV
Nevada
Boise State

Eest
Montana
USU
Wyoming
Colroado State
New Mexico
UTEP

Well, there is at least a plausible scenario that results in this alignment. Unlikely, yes, but still possible.

If you would have asked any MWC fan 12 months ago how they would like to take their conference and replace Utah/BYU/TCU/Air Force (if they are next) and replace them with 4 WAC schools (Boise was already known), they would have cringed. Unfortunately for them, just like the WAC had no leverage over the MWC, they have zero leverage over BCS conferences. The best they can do is replace future departing members with WAC and outside shot, maybe a CUSA team like UTEP. Although i have no idea why UTEP would leave a CUSA that loses 2 schools to join a MWC that loses another school or 2 and replaces it with USU.

Best case scenario for MWC is they do not lose even more members to a depleted Big 12. Same for CUSA. In the event Air Force and say SDSU or BSU leave, then USU would be the next logical replacement.

I still don't see a likely case where WAC goes away at this point. I am still optimistic also on the markets that have been added to the WAC and that it will be able to add between 1 and 4 FCS schools in the next 2 years. The ball is in the BCS conferences' courts. Once they say jump, the MWC/CUSA/WAC/Sun Belt will all be scrambling again.



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Re: If the Big 12 dies.

Post by Steve509 » August 15th, 2011, 4:22 pm

anything can happen, but my total guess is the Big-12 loses two team at the most. two can easily be replaced.

but if the Pac-12 makes another run at them, all bets are off.



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Re: If the Big 12 dies.

Post by ViAggie » August 15th, 2011, 7:11 pm

USU would be invited, and would join the big 12 long before it "dies". REMEMBER, you get to keep the BCS status! WHY IS THIS SO FING HARD FOR PEOPLE TO UNDERSTAND, the big 12 isn't going to die. SURE the conference as you and I know it could "die" but the name will not MARK MY FING WORDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :bangwall:


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Re: If the Big 12 dies.

Post by EarlOfHemsley » August 15th, 2011, 7:22 pm

I have a hard time believing UT goes anywhere with that new network of theirs. They will either rule the B12 with an iron hand or will have exiled themselves to independence while their conference folds around them. They don't care. They get money.

USU can only hope that in the fallout that would occur in the wake of the death of the B12, some spot opens up somewhere in a better place, that the heavens open, that the light shines down, and that the gentle voice from above softly says, "Aggies, it's your turn."

Of course, having a winning season in football and winning a bowl game will help our case. That's what I'm hoping for. :cool2:


At the end of the day, the Aggies are tremendous.

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Re: If the Big 12 dies.

Post by AgSpaceCase » August 15th, 2011, 8:02 pm

I could possibly see the big 12 dying if everything works out just so that the majority of the schools are wanting out at the same tome and therefore vote to disband the conference. I only see this happening if their is a lot of simultaneous raiding and avoiding exit fees while taking bball tourney money with them. Not likely unless everything happens really fast before replacements are found.

Since the Big 12 tv contrac basically becomes voided if the conference has less than 10 members they will need someone quick.


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