Who strikes first?

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Who strikes first?

Post by flying_scotsman2.0 » July 23rd, 2021, 9:56 am

Something is gonna happen this week. Either the Big 12 is going to take teams from the AAC and MW, or the AAC and MW are going to start picking off Big 12 teams that are trying to get off the boat.

I’d like to see the MW pick up OSU, TTU, TCU, and Baylor. My vision of the future also has Gonzaga joining and BYU being black balled.



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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by 3rdGenAggie » July 23rd, 2021, 2:10 pm

Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC is basically a done deal. A Big 12 invite to Houston, Cincinnati, BYU and Boise (possibly UCF and USF instead of BYU and BSU) will be extended within 48 hours of UT and OU leaving.

MWC and AAC backfill.

It could be as simple as that.

Question is, does Kansas jump to the Big 10 first? If so, then things really start to look different.


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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by Yossarian » July 23rd, 2021, 2:17 pm

3rdGenAggie wrote:
July 23rd, 2021, 2:10 pm
Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC is basically a done deal. A Big 12 invite to Houston, Cincinnati, BYU and Boise (possibly UCF and USF instead of BYU and BSU) will be extended within 48 hours of UT and OU leaving.

MWC and AAC backfill.

It could be as simple as that.

Question is, does Kansas jump to the Big 10 first? If so, then things really start to look different.
I have to think Kansas and Iowa State are in talks with the Big 10 starting weeks ago.



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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by 3rdGenAggie » July 23rd, 2021, 2:18 pm

Yossarian wrote:
July 23rd, 2021, 2:17 pm
3rdGenAggie wrote:
July 23rd, 2021, 2:10 pm
Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC is basically a done deal. A Big 12 invite to Houston, Cincinnati, BYU and Boise (possibly UCF and USF instead of BYU and BSU) will be extended within 48 hours of UT and OU leaving.

MWC and AAC backfill.

It could be as simple as that.

Question is, does Kansas jump to the Big 10 first? If so, then things really start to look different.
I have to think Kansas and Iowa State are in talks with the Big 10 starting weeks ago.
And/or Oklahoma State.


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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by GeoAg » July 23rd, 2021, 2:19 pm

Not sure I see Kansas to the Big 10. Maybe. Their market is smaller than SLC and they don't move the needle at all in the spirit that matters.

The tough choice for the Big 12 will be to go west or east. Cincy and Houston are no brainers. Do you even do to 12? If so Byu and Boise in the west versus UCF and Memphis or USF in the east. Tough call on that one.
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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by GeoAg » July 23rd, 2021, 2:20 pm

Oklahoma State and Iowa State bring not TVs to the big 10. Not happening.


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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by 3rdGenAggie » July 23rd, 2021, 2:23 pm

GeoAg wrote:
July 23rd, 2021, 2:19 pm
Not sure I see Kansas to the Big 10. Maybe. Their market is smaller than SLC and they don't move the needle at all in the spirit that matters.

The tough choice for the Big 12 will be to go west or east. Cincy and Houston are no brainers. Do you even do to 12? If so Byu and Boise in the west versus UCF and Memphis or USF in the east. Tough call on that one.
The money and media attention is mostly in the east, but so is most of the competition in your time slot.


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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by bwcrc » July 23rd, 2021, 2:39 pm

GeoAg wrote:
July 23rd, 2021, 2:20 pm
Oklahoma State and Iowa State bring not TVs to the big 10. Not happening.
My guess is that everyone is trying to talk to everyone else, at both the conference level with the B12 trying to survive by reaching out to possible individual schools and the MWC/AAC conferences trying to convince B12 schools to jump over while individual schools are lobbying the B12 for a possible seat at the table.

At the same time, if the B12 survives the $$ with Oklahoma and Texas gone will be considerably less no matter who else they bring in. I can see the remaining B12 teams trying to move to other P5 conferences in part to keep their revenue higher than a water-downed B12, especially if anyone else bolts right away. At the same time, both the PAC and B1G will not want to stand still in this round of musical chairs and might be willing to look ever so slightly the other way on academic prestige to each invite a couple of B12 remnants. Not enough for say Boise to receive a PAC invite but maybe enough to pull in an OSU or Texas Tech.

Probably the biggest concern for USU is whether any remaining B12 schools stay together and try to poach from the MWC, CUSA, and AAC or whether they jump to those other conferences. For my part, I think the most optimistic outcome for USU is the MWC stays intact and is able to grab a couple of B12 schools.

Oh, and yBu is left out and standing on the sidelines.



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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by GeoAg » July 23rd, 2021, 2:47 pm

bwcrc wrote:
July 23rd, 2021, 2:39 pm
GeoAg wrote:
July 23rd, 2021, 2:20 pm
Oklahoma State and Iowa State bring not TVs to the big 10. Not happening.
My guess is that everyone is trying to talk to everyone else, at both the conference level with the B12 trying to survive by reaching out to possible individual schools and the MWC/AAC conferences trying to convince B12 schools to jump over while individual schools are lobbying the B12 for a possible seat at the table.

At the same time, if the B12 survives the $$ with Oklahoma and Texas gone will be considerably less no matter who else they bring in. I can see the remaining B12 teams trying to move to other P5 conferences in part to keep their revenue higher than a water-downed B12, especially if anyone else bolts right away. At the same time, both the PAC and B1G will not want to stand still in this round of musical chairs and might be willing to look ever so slightly the other way on academic prestige to each invite a couple of B12 remnants. Not enough for say Boise to receive a PAC invite but maybe enough to pull in an OSU or Texas Tech.

Probably the biggest concern for USU is whether any remaining B12 schools stay together and try to poach from the MWC, CUSA, and AAC or whether they jump to those other conferences. For my part, I think the most optimistic outcome for USU is the MWC stays intact and is able to grab a couple of B12 schools.

Oh, and yBu is left out and standing on the sidelines.
That would be great, but I think it is unlikely. BYU's only hurdle is political. It scuttled things a couple of years ago. It could again, but the Big XII is much more desperate this time around.


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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by Yossarian » July 23rd, 2021, 3:17 pm

Once you take Nebraska, TAMU, Oklahoma, and Texas out of the Big 12 - what is left? It's time for the Mountain West to make its power play. Many cities and markets of the MW are much larger than Lawrence/Manhattan, Kansas; Waco/Lubbock, Texas: Ames, Iowa; and Stillwater, Oklahoma. Those schools have been living on the reputation and historical alliances with the Texases and Oklahomas of the world. The golden geese have flown the coop. The MW should be actively looking to solidify itself as a landing spot with stability, destination cities/markets, and sought after time slots for television contracts.



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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by TrueBlueAggie123 » July 23rd, 2021, 3:30 pm

My only question is… would the Mountain West be able to survive without Boise? They may be an annoying team with an annoying fan base but there is zero doubt that they are the top money maker in the MW. Without their draw, I don’t see how the MW replaces them or that loss of revenue



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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by USUaggie » July 23rd, 2021, 3:58 pm

TrueBlueAggie123 wrote:
July 23rd, 2021, 3:30 pm
My only question is… would the Mountain West be able to survive without Boise? They may be an annoying team with an annoying fan base but there is zero doubt that they are the top money maker in the MW. Without their draw, I don’t see how the MW replaces them or that loss of revenue
Boise is keeping the extra they bring in for themselves under the current terms, so it won't hurt much from a financial standpoint.



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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by aggietime » July 23rd, 2021, 4:00 pm

Boise and BYU are headed to the Big 12 if it's offered. I think Boise, BYU, Houston, and Cincinnati/Memphis make the move to the Big 12 regardless of what Kansas does. There's almost no chance the AAC/MWC is able to pick off the Big 12 unless it totally implodes and only TT, Baylor, Iowa State, and TCU are left standing. I could see the Big 10 grabbing Kansas and one more (Ok State?), but would the PAC 12 want any of the other leftovers? I have my doubts.
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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by swordsman1989 » July 23rd, 2021, 4:15 pm

GeoAg wrote:
July 23rd, 2021, 2:19 pm
Not sure I see Kansas to the Big 10. Maybe. Their market is smaller than SLC and they don't move the needle at all in the spirit that matters.

The tough choice for the Big 12 will be to go west or east. Cincy and Houston are no brainers. Do you even do to 12? If so Byu and Boise in the west versus UCF and Memphis or USF in the east. Tough call on that one.
Not a tough call at all. Florida has over 21 million residents. Utah and Idaho have less than a quarter of that combined. The Orlando and Tampa metro areas even have more combined population than the entire States of Utah and Idaho, at 5.6 million combined. UCF and USF have approximately 610,000 alumni combined, BYU and Boise State have approximately 450,000 alumni combined. UCF and USF have over 122,700 students combined, BYU and Boise State have less than 60,000 students combined.

Utah and Idaho may be the two fastest growing states, Florida is number 8, less than 4 percentage points behind #1 Utah in growth rate. With the population difference between the two, Utah is never going to come remotely close to catching Florida.

Bottom line, given the high profile success UCF has had in recent years, and the fact that USF also regularly produces strong seasons, the population differences, the number of alumni and future alumni, the Big-12 would be utterly foolish to look at BYU and Boise if UCF and USF are hanging out there. Plus, UCF and USF don't have the religious bigotry issues that have historically plagued BYU.

BYU and Boise State are not the draw they think they are, especially east of the rocky mountains.
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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by GeoAg » July 23rd, 2021, 4:48 pm

swordsman1989 wrote:
July 23rd, 2021, 4:15 pm
GeoAg wrote:
July 23rd, 2021, 2:19 pm
Not sure I see Kansas to the Big 10. Maybe. Their market is smaller than SLC and they don't move the needle at all in the spirit that matters.

The tough choice for the Big 12 will be to go west or east. Cincy and Houston are no brainers. Do you even do to 12? If so Byu and Boise in the west versus UCF and Memphis or USF in the east. Tough call on that one.
Not a tough call at all. Florida has over 21 million residents. Utah and Idaho have less than a quarter of that combined. The Orlando and Tampa metro areas even have more combined population than the entire States of Utah and Idaho, at 5.6 million combined. UCF and USF have approximately 610,000 alumni combined, BYU and Boise State have approximately 450,000 alumni combined. UCF and USF have over 122,700 students combined, BYU and Boise State have less than 60,000 students combined.

Utah and Idaho may be the two fastest growing states, Florida is number 8, less than 4 percentage points behind #1 Utah in growth rate. With the population difference between the two, Utah is never going to come remotely close to catching Florida.

Bottom line, given the high profile success UCF has had in recent years, and the fact that USF also regularly produces strong seasons, the population differences, the number of alumni and future alumni, the Big-12 would be utterly foolish to look at BYU and Boise if UCF and USF are hanging out there. Plus, UCF and USF don't have the religious bigotry issues that have historically plagued BYU.

BYU and Boise State are not the draw they think they are, especially east of the rocky mountains.
I agree with you and hope you are right. At the very least, I don't expect western expansion to he bigger than those two. We are in a much better spot than 10 years ago.


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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by Aggiealum13 » July 24th, 2021, 8:54 am

My hot take. I think the Big 12 expands by 2 before TX and OU make the SEC official. I think for the Big 12 to have any chance to survive they need to act quickly because it's better to be at 10 when officially TX and OU leave than 8. I think they'll get 2 more shortly after to get to 12, but they need to get 2 immediately.



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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by slcagg » July 24th, 2021, 10:45 am

GeoAg wrote:
July 23rd, 2021, 2:19 pm
Not sure I see Kansas to the Big 10. Maybe. Their market is smaller than SLC and they don't move the needle at all in the spirit that matters.

The tough choice for the Big 12 will be to go west or east. Cincy and Houston are no brainers. Do you even do to 12? If so Byu and Boise in the west versus UCF and Memphis or USF in the east. Tough call on that one.
KC metro is larger than slc (by just a bit), granted slc is growing more. But ku has a National following in basketball.



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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by Aggiealum13 » July 24th, 2021, 5:35 pm

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsspo ... r-sec/amp/

According to Dodd, it looks like Big 12 is trying one last ditch effort to keep OU and Texas by giving them the Boise State treatment that the Broncos enjoy in the Mountain West. According to the article 1.5 shares will give OU and Texas $56 million a year versus low $30 million for the others. Not a bad counteroffer. If they sell it well it could work. An example would be, "Yes you can make $60 million with your other SEC buddies, but with our offer of $56 million a year you will be ahead of the SEC teams that make $44 million a year." We'll see if they bite.



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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by 3rdGenAggie » July 25th, 2021, 10:57 am

Aggiealum13 wrote:
July 24th, 2021, 5:35 pm
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsspo ... r-sec/amp/

According to Dodd, it looks like Big 12 is trying one last ditch effort to keep OU and Texas by giving them the Boise State treatment that the Broncos enjoy in the Mountain West. According to the article 1.5 shares will give OU and Texas $56 million a year versus low $30 million for the others. Not a bad counteroffer. If they sell it well it could work. An example would be, "Yes you can make $60 million with your other SEC buddies, but with our offer of $56 million a year you will be ahead of the SEC teams that make $44 million a year." We'll see if they bite.
That just kicks the can down the road, but would calm things down for now.

If it did happen, and I were Hair Thompson, I'd still reach out to a couple AAC teams and see if we could convince them to join with the pitch that the Big XII is coming for some AAC teams eventually. Better to be in a stable conference today than be scrambling when that happens.

The USU problem with adding 2 Texas schools of that it probably pushes us to the West division with Boise and would much rather be in the Mountain division.


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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by dogie » July 25th, 2021, 2:22 pm

3rdGenAggie wrote:
July 25th, 2021, 10:57 am
Aggiealum13 wrote:
July 24th, 2021, 5:35 pm
The USU problem with adding 2 Texas schools of that it probably pushes us to the West division with Boise and would much rather be in the Mountain division.
Actually, adding two Texas schools to go to 14 puts Boise in the west and leaves USU in a mountain division that includes:

USU
Wyoming
Colorado State
Air Force
New Mexico
Texas school #1
Texas school #2



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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by 3rdGenAggie » July 25th, 2021, 2:26 pm

dogie wrote:
July 25th, 2021, 2:22 pm
3rdGenAggie wrote:
July 25th, 2021, 10:57 am
Aggiealum13 wrote:
July 24th, 2021, 5:35 pm
The USU problem with adding 2 Texas schools of that it probably pushes us to the West division with Boise and would much rather be in the Mountain division.
Actually, adding two Texas schools to go to 14 puts Boise in the west and leaves USU in a mountain division that includes:

USU
Wyoming
Colorado State
Air Force
New Mexico
Texas school #1
Texas school #2
You're right. Haha. Splitting those out in my head I was thinking two would have to move, but only one would.

It's all theoretical, but that would work great, IMO.


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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by slcagg » July 25th, 2021, 2:39 pm

3rdGenAggie wrote:
July 25th, 2021, 2:26 pm
dogie wrote:
July 25th, 2021, 2:22 pm
3rdGenAggie wrote:
July 25th, 2021, 10:57 am
Aggiealum13 wrote:
July 24th, 2021, 5:35 pm
The USU problem with adding 2 Texas schools of that it probably pushes us to the West division with Boise and would much rather be in the Mountain division.
Actually, adding two Texas schools to go to 14 puts Boise in the west and leaves USU in a mountain division that includes:

USU
Wyoming
Colorado State
Air Force
New Mexico
Texas school #1
Texas school #2
You're right. Haha. Splitting those out in my head I was thinking two would have to move, but only one would.

It's all theoretical, but that would work great, IMO.
Who would you add? Don’t think Houston would move. Maybe smu? Maybe Tulsa?



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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by 3rdGenAggie » July 25th, 2021, 3:35 pm

slcagg wrote:
July 25th, 2021, 2:39 pm
3rdGenAggie wrote:
July 25th, 2021, 2:26 pm
dogie wrote:
July 25th, 2021, 2:22 pm
3rdGenAggie wrote:
July 25th, 2021, 10:57 am
Aggiealum13 wrote:
July 24th, 2021, 5:35 pm
The USU problem with adding 2 Texas schools of that it probably pushes us to the West division with Boise and would much rather be in the Mountain division.
Actually, adding two Texas schools to go to 14 puts Boise in the west and leaves USU in a mountain division that includes:

USU
Wyoming
Colorado State
Air Force
New Mexico
Texas school #1
Texas school #2
You're right. Haha. Splitting those out in my head I was thinking two would have to move, but only one would.

It's all theoretical, but that would work great, IMO.
Who would you add? Don’t think Houston would move. Maybe smu? Maybe Tulsa?
In all reality, you probably couldn't pull anybody away at this point, but probably SMU and Tulsa.

You could get some CUSA schools though. Would North Texas, Rice, UTSA, or UTEP move the needle at all? I'm not sure they do.


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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by slcagg » July 25th, 2021, 4:50 pm

3rdGenAggie wrote:
July 25th, 2021, 3:35 pm
slcagg wrote:
July 25th, 2021, 2:39 pm
3rdGenAggie wrote:
July 25th, 2021, 2:26 pm
dogie wrote:
July 25th, 2021, 2:22 pm
3rdGenAggie wrote:
July 25th, 2021, 10:57 am
Aggiealum13 wrote:
July 24th, 2021, 5:35 pm
The USU problem with adding 2 Texas schools of that it probably pushes us to the West division with Boise and would much rather be in the Mountain division.
Actually, adding two Texas schools to go to 14 puts Boise in the west and leaves USU in a mountain division that includes:

USU
Wyoming
Colorado State
Air Force
New Mexico
Texas school #1
Texas school #2
You're right. Haha. Splitting those out in my head I was thinking two would have to move, but only one would.

It's all theoretical, but that would work great, IMO.
Who would you add? Don’t think Houston would move. Maybe smu? Maybe Tulsa?
In all reality, you probably couldn't pull anybody away at this point, but probably SMU and Tulsa.

You could get some CUSA schools though. Would North Texas, Rice, UTSA, or UTEP move the needle at all? I'm not sure they do.
Maybe. But the cusa schools just don’t move the needle at all imo. You might have a chance at a smu if Houston is added to say the big 12.
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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by USU78 » July 26th, 2021, 10:56 am



You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by 3rdGenAggie » July 26th, 2021, 2:34 pm

An easier path to championships is nice, but money is far nicer.


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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by usu99 » July 26th, 2021, 3:03 pm

USU and the MW have no say in what is happening. Hopefully we don't get screwed is all we can do.


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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by Imakeitrain » July 27th, 2021, 8:28 am

I don’t think we get left out in the cold like we were with the WAC- most of the movement will be from aac to the big 12.

I also think these super conferences are doomed to fail. There are too many mouths to feed with too many schools that are used to having everything go their way. Because winning is mutually exclusive, some of the people who aren’t used to losing will get used to losing. Because some of these schools have little in common, after awhile fans won’t enjoy traveling further and they’ll break apart sooner than later.

But ultimately, who knows. I think we’re better positioned than 11 years ago. That’s what I care most about.
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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by BigBlueDart » July 27th, 2021, 11:35 am

usu99 wrote:
July 26th, 2021, 3:03 pm
USU and the MW have no say in what is happening. Hopefully we don't get screwed is all we can do.
I think USU and the MW not having a say is a likelihood. Not having a say if we say nothing is an absolute.



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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by ViAggie » July 27th, 2021, 12:03 pm

BigBlueDart wrote:
July 27th, 2021, 11:35 am
usu99 wrote:
July 26th, 2021, 3:03 pm
USU and the MW have no say in what is happening. Hopefully we don't get screwed is all we can do.
I think USU and the MW not having a say is a likelihood. Not having a say if we say nothing is an absolute.
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USU78
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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by USU78 » July 27th, 2021, 12:11 pm

Sometimes, when you're Holland, and France + Germany are shelling each other across the Rhine, it's best just to hunker down, keep looking for leaks in the dikes and stuffing them with fingers, keep whittling away on your schnitzelbank at your wooden shoes, keep sucking away at your chocolates, and keep keeping your trap shut.
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You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by Brushowl » July 27th, 2021, 12:39 pm

Best post of the day! We just need to keep making wooden shoes.
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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by LKGates » July 28th, 2021, 10:32 pm

USU78 wrote:
July 27th, 2021, 12:11 pm
Sometimes, when you're Holland, and France + Germany are shelling each other across the Rhine, it's best just to hunker down, keep looking for leaks in the dikes and stuffing them with fingers, keep whittling away on your schnitzelbank at your wooden shoes, keep sucking away at your chocolates, and keep keeping your trap shut.
Spoken like a man with some historical knowledge and perspective.
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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by LKGates » July 28th, 2021, 10:42 pm

Imakeitrain wrote:
July 27th, 2021, 8:28 am
I don’t think we get left out in the cold like we were with the WAC- most of the movement will be from aac to the big 12.

I also think these super conferences are doomed to fail. There are too many mouths to feed with too many schools that are used to having everything go their way. Because winning is mutually exclusive, some of the people who aren’t used to losing will get used to losing. Because some of these schools have little in common, after awhile fans won’t enjoy traveling further and they’ll break apart sooner than later.

But ultimately, who knows. I think we’re better positioned than 11 years ago. That’s what I care most about.
Agreed. Historically, no 16 team conference has survived more than just a few seasons. The old Southern Conference split into the SEC and the ACC. We know what happened to the old 16 team WAC. Those perennially at the top begin to resent that they are "subsidizing" the perennial doormats. For the teams that drop to the bottom, 16 places is just too far to claw your way to the top. The successful schools look to trim off dead weight. The losers look for quicker, easier paths to success.

Those who do not know history are doomed to repeat it.
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Re: Who strikes first?

Post by NVAggie » July 29th, 2021, 7:39 am

The new college football model will be more like the NFL. 32 teams have been just fine for them.



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