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Evaluating hyperbole
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Evaluating hyperbole
"A Quad 4 loss will kill any chance of an at-large bid."
It begs the question of whether this has ever happened. Now if you are a P5 conspiracy believer, you would do well to stop reading here.
So, using the website https://bracketologists.com/ (which I really like!!!) I looked at the data from last year's year-end Selection Sunday Net Ratings. It's easy to find and very clear with regards to who made the tourney and how they made it.
And the answer is that three teams received at-large bids last year even with a Q4 loss.
- Rutgers (the worst Net rating, 77, to get an at-large bid). 6-6 Q1. 5-1 Q4.
- UNC (Rating 31. 3-8 Q1. 5-1 Q4.
- USF (Rating 22. 4-6 Q1. 9-1 Q4.
It's obvious that Rutgers and UNC are in P5 conferences. But USF isn't - and played 10 Q4 games.
Alabama (30) was the only at-large team to play less than 3 Q4 games - 1.
Davidson (41) played in 11 with a lower division game to boot.
So by conclusion, it appears that you can get in with a Q4 loss.
And you can get in with a lot of Q4 games.
And even with a Q4 loss, you don't need a winning Q1 record.
As much as people want to say otherwise.
The reality is that the Net ratings are based on a season of work.
It may even be that a good Net rating could get a 7th place MWC team a home game in the NIT.
The time to panic may be coming - who knows - but it isn't here yet.
It begs the question of whether this has ever happened. Now if you are a P5 conspiracy believer, you would do well to stop reading here.
So, using the website https://bracketologists.com/ (which I really like!!!) I looked at the data from last year's year-end Selection Sunday Net Ratings. It's easy to find and very clear with regards to who made the tourney and how they made it.
And the answer is that three teams received at-large bids last year even with a Q4 loss.
- Rutgers (the worst Net rating, 77, to get an at-large bid). 6-6 Q1. 5-1 Q4.
- UNC (Rating 31. 3-8 Q1. 5-1 Q4.
- USF (Rating 22. 4-6 Q1. 9-1 Q4.
It's obvious that Rutgers and UNC are in P5 conferences. But USF isn't - and played 10 Q4 games.
Alabama (30) was the only at-large team to play less than 3 Q4 games - 1.
Davidson (41) played in 11 with a lower division game to boot.
So by conclusion, it appears that you can get in with a Q4 loss.
And you can get in with a lot of Q4 games.
And even with a Q4 loss, you don't need a winning Q1 record.
As much as people want to say otherwise.
The reality is that the Net ratings are based on a season of work.
It may even be that a good Net rating could get a 7th place MWC team a home game in the NIT.
The time to panic may be coming - who knows - but it isn't here yet.
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Re: Evaluating hyperbole
I think one thing that doesn't hurt us as much is that it was an in-state rivalry game. I believe the selection committee usually takes those in-state rivalry games with a grain of salt. Doing well in the diamond head will help soften that loss even more.
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Re: Evaluating hyperbole
I think Weber will end up as a q3 loss anyway. They are solid. Sitting around 200 and need to get to 160… easily manageable if they’ve really gotten their stuff together after a rough start
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Re: Evaluating hyperbole
Beating BYU tonight would do wonders for that cause.flying_scotsman2.0 wrote: ↑December 22nd, 2022, 6:23 amI think Weber will end up as a q3 loss anyway. They are solid. Sitting around 200 and need to get to 160… easily manageable if they’ve really gotten their stuff together after a rough start
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Re: Evaluating hyperbole
I really can't see this happen. I would love for it to happen, but it won't. I can't see BYU having 25 minutes of offensive futility like USU did and I can't see Weber shooting nearly as well as they did against us. Their sitting down the stretch was unbelievable.treesap32 wrote: ↑December 22nd, 2022, 11:03 amBeating BYU tonight would do wonders for that cause.flying_scotsman2.0 wrote: ↑December 22nd, 2022, 6:23 amI think Weber will end up as a q3 loss anyway. They are solid. Sitting around 200 and need to get to 160… easily manageable if they’ve really gotten their stuff together after a rough start
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Re: Evaluating hyperbole
If Weber starts hitting 3s like they did at the end of our game, they could beat a lot of teams.
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Re: Evaluating hyperbole
Yes, some of those guys on the bench were really good sitters down the stretch.Yossarian wrote: ↑December 22nd, 2022, 12:35 pmI really can't see this happen. I would love for it to happen, but it won't. I can't see BYU having 25 minutes of offensive futility like USU did and I can't see Weber shooting nearly as well as they did against us. Their sitting down the stretch was unbelievable.treesap32 wrote: ↑December 22nd, 2022, 11:03 amBeating BYU tonight would do wonders for that cause.flying_scotsman2.0 wrote: ↑December 22nd, 2022, 6:23 amI think Weber will end up as a q3 loss anyway. They are solid. Sitting around 200 and need to get to 160… easily manageable if they’ve really gotten their stuff together after a rough start
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Re: Evaluating hyperbole
Nice. I should just give up typing on my phone. It never types what I think I am typing and I'm too lazy to proof read before I submit.treesap32 wrote: ↑December 22nd, 2022, 1:11 pmYes, some of those guys on the bench were really good sitters down the stretch.Yossarian wrote: ↑December 22nd, 2022, 12:35 pmI really can't see this happen. I would love for it to happen, but it won't. I can't see BYU having 25 minutes of offensive futility like USU did and I can't see Weber shooting nearly as well as they did against us. Their sitting down the stretch was unbelievable.treesap32 wrote: ↑December 22nd, 2022, 11:03 amBeating BYU tonight would do wonders for that cause.flying_scotsman2.0 wrote: ↑December 22nd, 2022, 6:23 amI think Weber will end up as a q3 loss anyway. They are solid. Sitting around 200 and need to get to 160… easily manageable if they’ve really gotten their stuff together after a rough start
I think I'm done with this typing on a phone stuff. Age has caught up to me.
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Re: Evaluating hyperbole
Haha, I figured that was the case. I'm the same way. I end up having to edit most of my texts and posts that I send from a phone.Yossarian wrote: ↑December 22nd, 2022, 1:18 pmNice. I should just give up typing on my phone. It never types what I think I am typing and I'm too lazy to proof read before I submit.treesap32 wrote: ↑December 22nd, 2022, 1:11 pmYes, some of those guys on the bench were really good sitters down the stretch.Yossarian wrote: ↑December 22nd, 2022, 12:35 pmI really can't see this happen. I would love for it to happen, but it won't. I can't see BYU having 25 minutes of offensive futility like USU did and I can't see Weber shooting nearly as well as they did against us. Their sitting down the stretch was unbelievable.treesap32 wrote: ↑December 22nd, 2022, 11:03 amBeating BYU tonight would do wonders for that cause.flying_scotsman2.0 wrote: ↑December 22nd, 2022, 6:23 amI think Weber will end up as a q3 loss anyway. They are solid. Sitting around 200 and need to get to 160… easily manageable if they’ve really gotten their stuff together after a rough start
I think I'm done with this typing on a phone stuff. Age has caught up to me.
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Re: Evaluating hyperbole
Clearly even the NET makes knee jerk reactions
We rapidly dropped to 34, and then cooler NET heads prevailed and we have crept back up to 24.
This obviously indicates that one bad Q4 loss is not a death knell.
(Yes, I am in the practice of regularly anthropomorphizing algorithms)
We rapidly dropped to 34, and then cooler NET heads prevailed and we have crept back up to 24.
This obviously indicates that one bad Q4 loss is not a death knell.
(Yes, I am in the practice of regularly anthropomorphizing algorithms)
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