A win isn't a win anymore. You have to cover the spread to increase your chances of making it to the Big Dance at the end of the year. We picked up the win last night and dropped 9 spots in the KenPom because we didn't win by enough points. The drop would've been similar in the NET if it were already released. We under-performed our offensive and defensive metrics. Imagine a 5 point win dropping you out of contention for the dance. I wonder how much we would've dropped had the buzzer beating three by Utah Tech missed and we win by 8...

I kind of miss the days when I was 100% happy we just picked up the win. That was one thing I liked about the RPI. It was based on wins and losses, not RUTS or style points.

C'est la vie.

treesap32 wrote: ↑

December 2nd, 2022, 7:36 am

A win isn't a win anymore. You have to cover the spread to increase your chances of making it to the Big Dance at the end of the year. We picked up the win last night and dropped 9 spots in the KenPom because we didn't win by enough points. The drop would've been similar in the NET if it were already released. We under-performed our offensive and defensive metrics. Imagine a 5 point win dropping you out of contention for the dance. I wonder how much we would've dropped had the buzzer beating three by Utah Tech missed and we win by 8...

I kind of miss the days when I was 100% happy we just picked up the win. That was one thing I liked about the RPI. It was based on wins and losses, not RUTS or style points.

C'est la vie.

Crazy. Curious, do the big swings in rankings occur more frequently or have larger drops or climbs, earlier in the season versus late? More data points lending to a more accurate ranking and early in the season it's too unknown?? You're right, would absolutely suck to get bumped out of the dance for a big drop after a win, seems wrong.

But is it really wrong? We just had very close games with two not so great teams (especially Utah Tech). I’d say that’s cause for concern, and reason to think we might not be as good as it seemed like we were a few weeks back.

I agree that it is a bummer, and I can see your point! I’m just saying it makes some sense.

We are going to have a rude awaking in conference. The shine will be gone when other teams defend our 3 and we can't defend theirs.

TrueAggieman wrote: ↑

December 2nd, 2022, 8:52 am

But is it really wrong? We just had very close games with two not so great teams (especially Utah Tech). I’d say that’s cause for concern, and reason to think we might not be as good as it seemed like we were a few weeks back.

I agree that it is a bummer, and I can see your point! I’m just saying it makes some sense.

I think NET and the age of power ratings is an improvement over RPI. But it still makes me sad to not be able to fully celebrate a win when I see it drop us in the rankings and hurt our chances to eventually get a bid in the dance.

I think as the season goes on, there are a lot less huge swings. Computers still using a lot of last year to help their formulas. A high ranked team might lose, so a lesser team jumps, but come February that Hugh ranked team isn’t good at all. Things will level out. I like computers a lot more then eye test, because it’s objective.

treesap32 wrote: ↑

December 2nd, 2022, 10:46 am

TrueAggieman wrote: ↑

December 2nd, 2022, 8:52 am

But is it really wrong? We just had very close games with two not so great teams (especially Utah Tech). I’d say that’s cause for concern, and reason to think we might not be as good as it seemed like we were a few weeks back.

I agree that it is a bummer, and I can see your point! I’m just saying it makes some sense.

I think NET and the age of power ratings is an improvement over RPI. But it still makes me sad to not be able to fully celebrate a win when I see it drop us in the rankings and hurt our chances to eventually get a bid in the dance.

That’s fair… I agree. And dropping 9 spots for a win does seem like a lot. If you look at Utah Tech’s schedule, most of their losses are to some pretty good teams. I’m thinking and hoping they might crank out quite a few wins, so maybe that “close win” won’t be so bad?

The good thing is, a win is a win, and luckily there won’t be a “Lost to Utah Tech” on our resume ‍

A play at each buzzer cost 6 points.

I could have swore the guys foot was on the line on the last buzzer beater. But what motivation does a ref have to go back and look at it when the game is over. With an 18.5 point line not even the gamblers care. Also, if beating UTech by 6 rather than 5 is the difference in making the tourney or not it won't matter as we would be getting a 14 seed anyway.

We would have dropped by a lot more that 9 spots had we lost—so go ahead, celebrate the win!

Is the difference between a 1 point win and a 1 point loss more or less than the difference between a 1 point win and a 20 point win according to the computers?

Probably less.

The exhilarating part about ratings is knowing how good it is to beat the crap out of a good team like San Francisco

Gidbob wrote: ↑

December 3rd, 2022, 1:03 am

Is the difference between a 1 point win and a 1 point loss more or less than the difference between a 1 point win and a 20 point win according to the computers?

As far as I know, so far nobody has reverse engineered the NET formula, so we still don't know exactly how it works. However, I think the NCAA has said that winning by more than 10 points has the same effect on the rankings as winning by 10 points. They don't want to encourage teams to run up the score. But a close win against a bad team can hurt your ranking.

EDIT: I should have googled before I posted. Apparently the current iteration of NET does not consider margin of victory at all:

With the changes announced in May 2020, the NET will no longer use winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin. The change was made after the committee consulted with Google Cloud Professional Services, which worked with the NCAA to develop the original NET.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-me ... -explained

StanfordAggie wrote:

Gidbob wrote: ↑

December 3rd, 2022, 1:03 am

Is the difference between a 1 point win and a 1 point loss more or less than the difference between a 1 point win and a 20 point win according to the computers?

As far as I know, so far nobody has reverse engineered the NET formula, so we still don't know exactly how it works. However, I think the NCAA has said that winning by more than 10 points has the same effect on the rankings as winning by 10 points. They don't want to encourage teams to run up the score. But a close win against a bad team can hurt your ranking.

EDIT: I should have googled before I posted. Apparently the current iteration of NET does not consider margin of victory at all:

With the changes announced in May 2020, the NET will no longer use winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin. The change was made after the committee consulted with Google Cloud Professional Services, which worked with the NCAA to develop the original NET.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-me ... -explained

Yeah I do remember that discussion on here in the past about the margin of victory not being included to promote good sportsmanship but I think it was believed that offensive efficiency and such categories were included and those do utilize scoring so it was still in a teams best interest to keep scoring.


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For a given game, a win is better than a loss so win percentage correlates to NET ranking. Is there any correlation to scoring margin similarly baked in?

Edit: It’s too early in the morning, looks like @scotlandog already answered my question.

Neck-stepping Evaluation Tool

You guys are on point. Whether on not scoring margin is capped at 10 points or even evaluated at all doesn't matter because offensive and defensive efficiency is apparently a big factor in these ratings. So you gotta RUTS on your opponent or as Reggie Theus would say "You gotta step on their necks!"

treesap32 wrote: ↑

December 8th, 2022, 8:10 am

You guys are on point. Whether on not scoring margin is capped at 10 points or even evaluated at all doesn't matter because offensive and defensive efficiency is apparently a big factor in these ratings. So you gotta RUTS on your opponent or as Reggie Theus would say "You gotta step on their necks!"

http://www.rpiforecast.com/israelsen/ryan/theus.mp3

freakboy wrote:

treesap32 wrote: ↑

December 8th, 2022, 8:10 am

You guys are on point. Whether on not scoring margin is capped at 10 points or even evaluated at all doesn't matter because offensive and defensive efficiency is apparently a big factor in these ratings. So you gotta RUTS on your opponent or as Reggie Theus would say "You gotta step on their necks!"

http://www.rpiforecast.com/israelsen/ryan/theus.mp3

I saw the URL and was excited that rpiforecast was up


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

treesap32 wrote: ↑

December 8th, 2022, 8:10 am

You guys are on point. Whether on not scoring margin is capped at 10 points or even evaluated at all doesn't matter because offensive and defensive efficiency is apparently a big factor in these ratings. So you gotta RUTS on your opponent or as Reggie Theus would say "You gotta step on their necks!"

Isn't offensive/defensive efficiency basically just points scored/allowed per possession adjusted for the quality of your opponents? I don't think that RUTS is going to help your efficiency rating most of the time. Yes, if you have a huge lead and you rest all of your starters, that could hurt your efficiency ratings. But if you just milk the shot clock before shooting to protect a lead, that shouldn't affect your efficiency ratings, since they are evaluated on a per possession basis.

StanfordAggie wrote: ↑

December 9th, 2022, 11:19 pm

treesap32 wrote: ↑

December 8th, 2022, 8:10 am

You guys are on point. Whether on not scoring margin is capped at 10 points or even evaluated at all doesn't matter because offensive and defensive efficiency is apparently a big factor in these ratings. So you gotta RUTS on your opponent or as Reggie Theus would say "You gotta step on their necks!"

Isn't offensive/defensive efficiency basically just points scored/allowed per possession adjusted for the quality of your opponents? I don't think that RUTS is going to help your efficiency rating most of the time. Yes, if you have a huge lead and you rest all of your starters, that could hurt your efficiency ratings. But if you just milk the shot clock before shooting to protect a lead, that shouldn't affect your efficiency ratings, since they are evaluated on a per possession basis.

In theory it shouldn't affect your efficiency ratings. In practice it does affect your efficiency ratings. Waiting until the end of the clock and then trying to find a shot usually leaves you with a much less efficient shot than being able to utilize the entire shot clock to try to find the best way to score. An extreme example is letting the shot clock expire entirely because you're up by multiple possessions.

Another example is calling off the dogs and putting in your walk on players. Will they be as efficient as your starters? You will most likely see a sizable dropoff in efficiency.

treesap32 wrote: ↑

December 10th, 2022, 4:48 pm

In theory it shouldn't affect your efficiency ratings. In practice it does affect your efficiency ratings. Waiting until the end of the clock and then trying to find a shot usually leaves you with a much less efficient shot than being able to utilize the entire shot clock to try to find the best way to score. An extreme example is letting the shot clock expire entirely because you're up by multiple possessions.

Another example is calling off the dogs and putting in your walk on players. Will they be as efficient as your starters? You will most likely see a sizable dropoff in efficiency.

I agree completely with this. My only real response is that if you're the coach and your offensive efficiency drops significantly when you the slow the game down, they you either need to teach your team how to good looks while milking the shot clock or just stop playing stall ball. I think Stew Morrill is a basketball genius who has forgotten more about the game than I will ever know. But I still have PTSD from some of his teams that kept letting leads get away because they would start taking bad shots while trying to stall. If you're going to do that, why not just run your regular offense? I guess this is my long-winded way of saying that if your offensive efficiency drops by a noticeably amount when you are trying to slow the game down, then the effect on your NET ranking is the least of your problems.

And as I said in the other thread, my guess is that most mid/high major teams are not going to be resting their starters for long stretches very often. And if they are, they should be scheduling better teams anyway. But I do feel bad for teams like USU in our Big West days, who may now have to either RUTS or take a hit to their NET.

treesap32 wrote: ↑

December 2nd, 2022, 7:36 am

A win isn't a win anymore. You have to cover the spread to increase your chances of making it to the Big Dance at the end of the year. We picked up the win last night and dropped 9 spots in the KenPom because we didn't win by enough points. The drop would've been similar in the NET if it were already released. We under-performed our offensive and defensive metrics. Imagine a 5 point win dropping you out of contention for the dance. I wonder how much we would've dropped had the buzzer beating three by Utah Tech missed and we win by 8...

I kind of miss the days when I was 100% happy we just picked up the win. That was one thing I liked about the RPI. It was based on wins and losses, not RUTS or style points.

C'est la vie.

Hell, I too miss the days when only winning counted, no points. Now, winning might not be as sweet as it used to be... And that's a drawback. But I'm used to that, too.

Ronan1001 wrote: ↑

December 12th, 2022, 11:40 am

Hell, I too miss the days when only winning counted, no points. Now, winning might not be as sweet as it used to be... And that's a drawback. But I'm used to that, too.

welcome to the board!