If people are into this, I can update this throughout the season. Since I'm a stat nerd, I like rooting for more than a win. It's like betting on the line. To improve our kenpom rating, we need to beat the spread by more than their prediction. Info for this game...

Usu - 48 kenpom ranking
Oral Roberts - 105 kenpom ranking

Probability of winning - 81%

Spread - USU by 9

For the season we currently projected to finish 22-7

Obviously a win is most important. But if it's a close win it hurts our metrics and if we win by more than 9 we move up in the rankings. If we lose it hurts big time.

I check Pom after games, even in early season. At least OR is 105, not 205 or worse.


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aggie4L wrote: ↑

November 22nd, 2022, 4:30 pm

If people are into this, I can update this throughout the season. Since I'm a stat nerd, I like rooting for more than a win. It's like betting on the line. To improve our kenpom rating, we need to beat the spread by more than their prediction. Info for this game...

Usu - 48 kenpom ranking
Oral Roberts - 105 kenpom ranking

Probability of winning - 81%

Spread - USU by 9

For the season we currently projected to finish 22-7

Obviously a win is most important. But if it's a close win it hurts our metrics and if we win by more than 9 we move up in the rankings. If we lose it hurts big time.

Thank you for this!

I'll be interested to follow. i don't check kenpom, but i do read this site.

We got jumped by someone before the game finished to go to #49 before our game had finished.

Thanks to akin nailing those two late free throws we beat the spread by 1. Which took our adjEM ranking (which they decide the overall ranking from) a marginal boost from 14.34 -> 14.40 which wasn't enough to move us up in the rankings. But is a slight increase none the less! We stay at 49 for now.

Kinda bummed Nevada lost tonight. Kansas State fans are the world's greatest collection of personified (I can't express myself without swearing)-stains.

Keep posting

What margin do we need to beat Utah Tech by in order to not slide in the adjEM?

ProvoAggie wrote: ↑

November 23rd, 2022, 9:00 am

AGGIEinIOWA wrote: ↑

November 23rd, 2022, 8:57 am

What margin do we need to beat Utah Tech by in order to not slide in the adjEM?

KenPom has us beating them by 19 (84-65) so we probably need to at least perform that well.

Isn't there a little more involved than outperforming the spread of AdjO - AdjD? The KenPom formula is proprietary so we don't know all that goes into it, but the description says that it is all relative to what your points offensively and defensively per 100 possessions would be against the average D1 team, so while outperforming the "spread" is big, it isn't the be all end all? Would love to hear more from anyone who has more insight into the formula.

Utah Tech up for tonight. Spread has changed a bit from when provo posted it a week ago. Need a big win to stay steady in Kenpom.

USU - 47th
U Tech - 257th

Predicted Score - 81-63 (18 point spread)

Probability of winning - 95%

Currently still projected for a 22-7 record.

rAggie wrote: ↑

November 24th, 2022, 10:40 am

ProvoAggie wrote: ↑

November 23rd, 2022, 9:00 am

AGGIEinIOWA wrote: ↑

November 23rd, 2022, 8:57 am

What margin do we need to beat Utah Tech by in order to not slide in the adjEM?

KenPom has us beating them by 19 (84-65) so we probably need to at least perform that well.

Isn't there a little more involved than outperforming the spread of AdjO - AdjD? The KenPom formula is proprietary so we don't know all that goes into it, but the description says that it is all relative to what your points offensively and defensively per 100 possessions would be against the average D1 team, so while outperforming the "spread" is big, it isn't the be all end all? Would love to hear more from anyone who has more insight into the formula.

There is likely more that goes into the specifics of it. But from the 30 or so games that I have checked before and after for us. If we beat the spread we move up, and when we don't beat the spread we go down. That includes two close games to the spread this year I can remember off the top of my head...

We were supposed to beat San Diego by 4, we ended up winning by 1 which lead to a slight decrease in AdjEM.
We were supposed to beat Oral Roberts by 9 and won by 10 which lead to a very slight increase in AdjEM.

As far as AdjO and Adj D, we likely outperformed our expected points in Oral Roberts (95-85) so we got a small boost in AdjO (109.3 -> 109.7), but underperformed on allowing more points than expected so got a decrease in AdjD (95 -> 95.3). So it ends up being a slight increase overall, but ends up being mostly based on beating the spread from what I have observed.

These power rating formulas are heavily geared to reward offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, so RUTS (Running Up The Score) is now very important to the overall chance of your program to make the NCAA tournament. Should it be that way? Not sure, but it is.

NET claims that they capped the point differentials in wins to 10, which may be true for that portion of the formula, but the formula also rewards offensive and defensive metrics, and the more you RUTS a team off the court, the better your rankings will be.

I wouldn't mind it if we got back to the days where teams played for all 40 minutes and it wasn't a declaration of war to dunk the ball when the game is already won. But those days are long gone. Now you see teams actually take a shot clock violation to not hurt the other team's feelings by trying to score the ball on them when you're up by 10+ at the end of the game. I saw it the other night in the Chicago vs Utah game. It was interesting, the Bulls knew they weren't supposed to score and had to take a turnover, and they passed the ball from one to the other with each player trying to avoid registering a meaningless turnover on his stat sheet. At the end of the possession Zach Levine hurried and passed the ball to the Center who tried to avoid it like a hot potato, but probably got the turnover since it touched him right before the shot clock. That's completely ridiculous. You can't look at the other team the wrong way without offending someone these days. Heaven forbid you try to score a basketball before your own shot clock expires.

This is one of the reasons I really like the Elam Ending. There is ZERO reason to stop playing hard at the end of these games. The game is never over until a game winning shot is made. It also reduces the incentive to foul teams at the end of games and eliminates the foul shot parade that makes the last 2 minutes take 30 minutes to complete. I would love it if they implemented it in College Basketball, but it's probably a pipe dream. They implemented it in the NBA all star game and it's had universally great reviews from players and fans, but I think that's as far as it will go.

Wow that was a tangent.