Too much time on my hands...

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SectionBAggie
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Too much time on my hands...

Post by SectionBAggie » June 19th, 2022, 9:37 pm

In an effort to quantify KenPom's ranking of bad luck (USU finished dead last), I reviewed the games from last season for USU and the teams that finished ahead of the Aggies in the standings.
I decided (completely arbitrarily) to define a close loss as a case where the winning points were scored on the last 5 seconds (though it turned out that 3.3 yields the same outcome).
By this definition, the UCD game is not included even though the margin was only three since the timing of the points was such that I eliminated it. In the case of OT games I only looked at the last part of the final OT, even though the game was obviously close.
I was curious how often a team loses on, essentially, the opposition's final possession.
On the whole it's pretty rare. It only happened in 5 games over the course of the whole MWC season - in and out of conference.

During OOC:
Wichita State two FTs with 3.0 seconds left to beat UNLV by 1.
SMC hit 2 FTs with 0.9 seconds left to beat USU by 2.

In conference:
BSU hit a 3 with 1.4 seconds left to beat USU by 3.
WYO hit a basket with 3.3 seconds left to beat USU by 2.

In the MWCT:
CSU hit a basket with 1.8 seconds left to beat USU by 2.

This is probably a big part of feeling raw about last season - close but unable to close the deal 4 separate times

No single win among those four games changes much about the season. But smarter play and better defense in those final possessions would have really been nice.
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Re: Too much time on my hands...

Post by 3rdGenAggie » June 19th, 2022, 11:36 pm

So, out of several hundred games across 12 MWC teams there were 5 games decided on the final shot and USU had 4 of them (all losses)?

That's insanely bad luck. (Especially when you consider SMC should never have gotten that call and the Boise kid was 0-10 before hitting the game winner.)
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Re: Too much time on my hands...

Post by bwcrc » June 20th, 2022, 7:15 am

SectionBAggie wrote:
June 19th, 2022, 9:37 pm
...

This is probably a big part of feeling raw about last season - close but unable to close the deal 4 separate times

No single win among those four games changes much about the season. But smarter play and better defense in those final possessions would have really been nice.
This helps qualify the bad luck the team had in the closing seconds. We know we've seen it before with the football team a few years ago where it seemed everything went against them with some close losses.

In a vacuum, you are absolutely correct that those four single games don't really change much about the last season. The sense last year was that the basketball team was on the cusp of having an awesome season and just couldn't quite get there. The variable that can't be known is how winning one or more of those games last year would have impacted the team's confidence and changed the outcome in future games, turning what was an okay season into a much better season.

But just like the football team being on the better end of the luck spectrum last year, I expect the ball will bounce more favorably for basketball this year on those close games.
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Re: Too much time on my hands...

Post by slcagg » June 20th, 2022, 7:47 am

SectionBAggie wrote:
June 19th, 2022, 9:37 pm
In an effort to quantify KenPom's ranking of bad luck (USU finished dead last), I reviewed the games from last season for USU and the teams that finished ahead of the Aggies in the standings.
I decided (completely arbitrarily) to define a close loss as a case where the winning points were scored on the last 5 seconds (though it turned out that 3.3 yields the same outcome).
By this definition, the UCD game is not included even though the margin was only three since the timing of the points was such that I eliminated it. In the case of OT games I only looked at the last part of the final OT, even though the game was obviously close.
I was curious how often a team loses on, essentially, the opposition's final possession.
On the whole it's pretty rare. It only happened in 5 games over the course of the whole MWC season - in and out of conference.

During OOC:
Wichita State two FTs with 3.0 seconds left to beat UNLV by 1.
SMC hit 2 FTs with 0.9 seconds left to beat USU by 2.

In conference:
BSU hit a 3 with 1.4 seconds left to beat USU by 3.
WYO hit a basket with 3.3 seconds left to beat USU by 2.

In the MWCT:
CSU hit a basket with 1.8 seconds left to beat USU by 2.

This is probably a big part of feeling raw about last season - close but unable to close the deal 4 separate times

No single win among those four games changes much about the season. But smarter play and better defense in those final possessions would have really been nice.
This is great work!

I’d be curious the conference teams records when within a 2 possession game at 2 mins left. Guessing we are pretty low there to.
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