Aggies up to 44 in NET

dogie · Post by **dogie** » February 2nd, 2022, 6:52 am

https://bracketologists.com/conference/MW

I didn’t think a Quad 4 victory would give a team a bump from 52 to 44 in the NET rankings. Margin of victory and other factors must be considered in that black box.

Aggiealum13 · Post by **Aggiealum13** » February 2nd, 2022, 7:03 am

Crazy to think we were 71 a week ago. Now we're really in this thing if we can continue to win. I have noticed the same thing with margin of victory. It's also a credit to the Mountain West conference being as strong as it is.

Post by **treesap32** » February 2nd, 2022, 7:25 am

Case in point. Running up the score on a cupcake team (Q4) can give you a big boost in NET due to increases in offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. Case closed.

slcagg · Post by **slcagg** » February 2nd, 2022, 7:30 am

treesap32 wrote: ↑
February 2nd, 2022, 7:25 am
Case in point. Running up the score on a cupcake team (Q4) can give you a big boost in NET due to increases in offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. Case closed.

Run it up then.

Aggiehoopsfan · Post by **Aggiehoopsfan** » February 2nd, 2022, 7:39 am

I think we were running up the score last night. Starters were in until 2min left even though we were up by 30.

NVAggie · Post by **NVAggie** » February 2nd, 2022, 7:41 am

I think we need to run up the score if we want the slightest of chances for an at-large. Of course, that also means we need to win out and lose a close one in the MWC tourney. Even then, it will be close.

FloridaAggie13 · Post by **FloridaAggie13** » February 2nd, 2022, 8:08 am

We need to at least advance to the MWC tourney championship game.

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » February 2nd, 2022, 9:00 am

Aggiehoopsfan wrote: ↑
February 2nd, 2022, 7:39 am
I think we were running up the score last night. Starters were in until 2min left even though we were up by 30.

Which i am totally fine with. The Aggies need to play with more of a chip on their shoulder. They don't need to be some choir boy group, I hope they stay pissed and keep laying it on any team they can. I just wish they would have beat the fly boys by 40 last night.

utaggies · Post by **utaggies** » February 2nd, 2022, 9:11 am

Can you imagine where we’d be if we had beaten Wyoming, St. Mary’s and BSU in those one possession losses at home?

providencealum · Post by **providencealum** » February 2nd, 2022, 9:37 am

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑
February 2nd, 2022, 9:00 am

Aggiehoopsfan wrote: ↑
February 2nd, 2022, 7:39 am
I think we were running up the score last night. Starters were in until 2min left even though we were up by 30.
Which i am totally fine with. The Aggies need to play with more of a chip on their shoulder. They don't need to be some choir boy group, I hope they stay pissed and keep laying it on any team they can. I just wish they would have beat the fly boys by 40 last night.

We need to “step on their necks!”

MrBiggle · Post by **MrBiggle** » February 2nd, 2022, 10:07 am

treesap32 wrote: ↑
February 2nd, 2022, 7:25 am
Case in point. Running up the score on a cupcake team (Q4) can give you a big boost in NET due to increases in offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. Case closed.

Yeah we only allowed 57, 49, and 46 points the last three games. I’d be curious to see if it still helps winning by 20 if the score was 80-100?

Post by **treesap32** » February 2nd, 2022, 10:12 am

MrBiggle wrote: ↑
February 2nd, 2022, 10:07 am

treesap32 wrote: ↑
February 2nd, 2022, 7:25 am
Case in point. Running up the score on a cupcake team (Q4) can give you a big boost in NET due to increases in offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. Case closed.

Yeah we only allowed 57, 49, and 46 points the last three games. I’d be curious to see if it still helps winning by 20 if the score was 80-100?

Would be interesting. It would be a pretty nice boost to offensive efficiency metrics, but probably a hit to defensive.

Post by **GeoAg** » February 2nd, 2022, 10:15 am

How awesome is it to be in a league where this late in the season we have so many Q1 opportunities left.

ineptimusprime · Post by **ineptimusprime** » February 2nd, 2022, 10:25 am

The NET rankings era has been a huge friend to high-end mid-majors like the MW, WCC, and A-10.

That being said, I would be tickled with the NIT this year after the direction it looked like things were going.

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » February 2nd, 2022, 11:16 am

utaggies wrote: ↑
February 2nd, 2022, 9:11 am
Can you imagine where we’d be if we had beaten Wyoming, St. Mary’s and BSU in those one possession losses at home?

We would be squarely in the tournament currently and probably have a net ranking of ~20. We would be in the hunt to have a 6-7 seed if that were case. It just sucks we could not get it done.

dogie · Post by **dogie** » February 2nd, 2022, 11:39 am

Here's another factor that favors teams with good strengths of schedule but not spectacular winning percentages as they try to move up the rankings late in the season. I haven't ever seen this mentioned on the message boards, but it is certainly a factor.

This was more easily illustrated in the old RPI days, which were based entirely on winning percentages. It's something that hurt the Aggies during the Morrill years, but is going to potentially help the Aggies move up the rankings quickly if they keep winning.

Let's consider a situation where two teams are tied at 52 in the NET rankings (or the old RPI):

Team 1
11-9 record (.550 winning percentage)

Team 2
18-2 record (.900 winning percentage)

These teams would presumably be tied in the rankings because Team 1 had a much stronger schedule.

Let's say that both teams play a home game against a pair of teams that are tied in the middle of the pack, around 175 in the NET rankings. Both Team 1 and Team 2 win, resulting in the following winning percentages:

Team 1
12-9 record (.571 winning percentage - increase of .021)

Team 2
19-2 record (.905 winning percentage - increase of .005)

The result is that Team 1 significantly increases its winning percentage by winning an extra game, while Team 2 doesn't really move the needle, since they already win almost all of their games.

Like I mentioned, this was very prominent in the RPI, but surely comes into play in the NET rankings. For a team like some of the best in the Stew Morrill years, it was almost impossible to significantly improve the RPI near the end of the year by continuing to win (i.e., their winning percentage was already close to 1.000). For the 2022 Aggies, however, with a winning percentage that was at .500 just a few days ago, a winning streak is going to give all of their numbers a big boost.

So, if the Aggies can somehow win this week and then do well in the upcoming Quad 1 and 2 games later this month, we are going to see the NET ranking improve significantly. This is really just another way of describing how strength of schedule is so important in these rankings and why it's so nice to be in a strong MWC this year.

Looking more broadly, the three teams nationally that are going to get a benefit of this factor are West Virginia (NET 62, 13-8 record), Kansas State (NET 75, 10-10) and Michigan (53 NET, 11-8). WVU has nine games left (eight Quad 1 and one Quad 2) and KSU has ten games left (seven Quad 1 and three Quad 2). Those teams practically need to just finish about .500 overall and they will be in the tournament, even though they are currently the last two teams in the Big XII standings.

The MWC is not nearly as strong as the Big XII or Big Ten, but the Aggies still have three Quad 1 games and another Quad 2, plus the MWC tournament. If they can win all of the Quad 3 and 4 games, and then pick up two of the four Quad 1/2 games, they will be in the top four in the MWC standings and have a NET of about 30-35 going into the MWC tournament. At that point, their job will be simply to not play themselves out of an NCAA invitation.

NVAggie · Post by **NVAggie** » February 2nd, 2022, 11:56 am

We don't know how to deal with this because we are never in this position. Typically we are the team with a stellar winning percentage, but few good wins. This is territory in which we don't have experience. I hope our team does its part to make it interesting.

frankiesaysrelax · Post by **frankiesaysrelax** » February 2nd, 2022, 12:28 pm

Does anyone else think it is strange that there is talk of anywhere from 3 to 5 teams in the MWC getting into the tourney but not one is ranked in the top 25?

MrBiggle · Post by **MrBiggle** » February 2nd, 2022, 12:53 pm

frankiesaysrelax wrote: ↑
February 2nd, 2022, 12:28 pm
Does anyone else think it is strange that there is talk of anywhere from 3 to 5 teams in the MWC getting into the tourney but not one is ranked in the top 25?

No. The MW doesn't have any projected teams above a 4 seed right?

Post by **treesap32** » February 2nd, 2022, 1:25 pm

frankiesaysrelax wrote: ↑
February 2nd, 2022, 12:28 pm
Does anyone else think it is strange that there is talk of anywhere from 3 to 5 teams in the MWC getting into the tourney but not one is ranked in the top 25?

We have a lot of strong teams this year. None that are head and shoulders above the others to be in the top 25.

rAggie · Post by **rAggie** » February 3rd, 2022, 4:32 pm

I seem to remember the NET considering margin of victory but only up to 10 points. Did they get rid of that or am I having a fever dream?

3rdGenAggie · Post by **3rdGenAggie** » February 3rd, 2022, 6:05 pm

How many conferences have auto-bids, but whose winner is likely to be below 64 in the NET?

Point being, if the committee used NET exactly for at-large bid selection, where would the cutoff be after sub-64 auto-bids were included?

sneed · Post by **sneed** » February 3rd, 2022, 6:13 pm

providencealum wrote:
Aggie84025 wrote: ↑
February 2nd, 2022, 9:00 am

Aggiehoopsfan wrote: ↑
February 2nd, 2022, 7:39 am
I think we were running up the score last night. Starters were in until 2min left even though we were up by 30.
Which i am totally fine with. The Aggies need to play with more of a chip on their shoulder. They don't need to be some choir boy group, I hope they stay pissed and keep laying it on any team they can. I just wish they would have beat the fly boys by 40 last night.
We need to “step on their necks!”

We aren’t allowed to say that anymore.

scotlandog · Post by **scotlandog** » February 3rd, 2022, 10:24 pm

3rdGenAggie wrote:How many conferences have auto-bids, but whose winner is likely to be below 64 in the NET?

Point being, if the committee used NET exactly for at-large bid selection, where would the cutoff be after sub-64 auto-bids were included?

https://bracketologists.com generally shows that cutoff point to be at 48. The exact number will depend on the current standings and if any bid stealers emerge from the conference tourneys. But I think the number your looking for is 48.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Aggiealum13 · Post by **Aggiealum13** » February 4th, 2022, 6:24 am

49 in net ranking. Dropped 6 spots from 43. Whatever just win.

Post by **treesap32** » February 4th, 2022, 7:07 am

rAggie wrote: ↑
February 3rd, 2022, 4:32 pm
I seem to remember the NET considering margin of victory but only up to 10 points. Did they get rid of that or am I having a fever dream?

I don't think they got rid of that. However, that's only one portion of the formula. They also consider offensive and defensive ratings. Those aren't capped at 10 points. Running up the score makes those numbers look a lot better, and therefor affect the NET in a positive way.

Post by **treesap32** » February 4th, 2022, 7:09 am

Aggiealum13 wrote: ↑
February 4th, 2022, 6:24 am
49 in net ranking. Dropped 6 spots from 43. Whatever just win.

We didn't blow them out by enough. I was hoping when we opened up the 21 point lead with several minutes left we would push it to 30+...

sneed · Post by **sneed** » February 4th, 2022, 7:36 am

treesap32 wrote:
Aggiealum13 wrote: ↑
February 4th, 2022, 6:24 am
49 in net ranking. Dropped 6 spots from 43. Whatever just win.
We didn't blow them out by enough. I was hoping when we opened up the 21 point lead with several minutes left we would push it to 30+...

A lot of our opponents in the MW dropped 3 or so spots without playing - I’m thinking we were going to drop either way. Not sure the main cause (besides our game)…. BYU has been playing poorly, Boise lost but neither of those should change much yet. Maybe Utah finally winning one ruined it for everyone

.

MrBiggle · Post by **MrBiggle** » February 4th, 2022, 8:59 am

I wonder if beating the spread plays into the calculation. That was a big difference with this game compared to the other three wins. IIRC

Post by **treesap32** » February 4th, 2022, 9:01 am

MrBiggle wrote: ↑
February 4th, 2022, 8:59 am
I wonder if beating the spread plays into the calculation. That was a big difference with this game compared to the other three wins. IIRC

Most likely. The spreads are closely correlated to power ratings like KenPom and Sagarin which are also closely tied to offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. So if you beat the spread you are likely beating your expected offensive and defensive outputs, which would in turn positively affect the NET.

FloridaAggie13 · Post by **FloridaAggie13** » February 4th, 2022, 9:41 am

frankiesaysrelax wrote: ↑
February 2nd, 2022, 12:28 pm
Does anyone else think it is strange that there is talk of anywhere from 3 to 5 teams in the MWC getting into the tourney but not one is ranked in the top 25?

I think we've learned over the years that rankings are too often predicated on popularity, brand and name recognition. Only the most hardcore (or responsible) writers/voters, especially on the east coast, are paying attention to a game in Wyoming or Boise on a Tuesday night in February. They watch Sportscenter for highlights (there's your top 20 right there), quickly browse standings and cast their vote.

Post by **Aglicious** » February 4th, 2022, 2:48 pm

The jump up to 44/43 and then back down to 49 leads be to believe that the differential between us and the 5,6, or 7 teams right in front of us must also be minuscule.

Post by **treesap32** » February 4th, 2022, 3:07 pm

Aglicious wrote:The jump up to 44/43 and then back down to 49 leads be to believe that the differential between us and the 5,6, or 7 teams right in front of us must also be minuscule.

Most likely.

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ThunderAggie · Post by **ThunderAggie** » February 4th, 2022, 5:55 pm

Richmond just got a huge win. They beat St Bonaventure who is projected to make the tourney. Should help our NET a bit.

dogie · Post by **dogie** » February 6th, 2022, 7:30 am

The Aggies are up to 43 again after the UNLV victory. BYU has dropped to 45 and Oklahoma is down to 47.

Wyoming is up to 29, so the home loss to the Cowboys is now Quad 1.

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