Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

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USUstudent13
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Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by USUstudent13 » November 22nd, 2021, 11:55 pm

Is this year the toughest our schedule has ever been? Seems like we have and will play a lot of good, solid basketball teams.

Richmond, Oklahoma, St Marys, byu, Iowa, and even Weber State seems very good. Not to mention our conference games with SDSU, Boise, and Colorado State.

Anyone have the numbers on our SOS compared to years in the past?



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Re: Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by ineptimusprime » November 23rd, 2021, 12:08 am

USUstudent13 wrote:
November 22nd, 2021, 11:55 pm
Is this year the toughest our schedule has ever been? Seems like we have and will play a lot of good, solid basketball teams.

Richmond, Oklahoma, St Marys, byu, Iowa, and even Weber State seems very good. Not to mention our conference games with SDSU, Boise, and Colorado State.

Anyone have the numbers on our SOS compared to years in the past?
We would be sitting very pretty so far were it not for the UC-Davis disaster, which remains a real puzzler.
That said we’ve atoned for it mostly, and still have plenty of chances left for more marquee wins. Will depend on how teams play, but NMSU has a real chance to be a Q2 win, and Richmond and Oklahoma could end being Q1 wins (but likely no worse than Q2). Penn will likely be Q3, and UC-Davis will likely be no better than a Q3 loss.

Hard to say right now, but remaining Q1 and Q2 games are likely: SMC, BYU, Iowa, Weber State, CSU (x2), SDSU (x2), and maybe BSU (x2)? That’s potentially ten more chances at Q1/Q2 wins with a few already banked. If we can just split those ten and avoid any more bad losses, I will like our chances come March.

The 2019-20 season where we were ranked going in had a similarly difficult non-conference schedule. I love tough non-conference schedules. You learn so much about the team.



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Re: Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by NVAggie » November 23rd, 2021, 7:50 am

If we play well and win moving forward that loss to Davis won't hurt nearly as bad. At least we have a chance to get past it this year. It would have been a death knell in years past.



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Re: Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by BigBlueDart » November 23rd, 2021, 9:14 am

Here are the Kenpom rankings for the teams we've played so far:

45 - Oklahoma (neutral = Q1 win, barely)
64 - Richmond (neutral = Q2 win)
105 - NMSU (neutral = Q3 win)
191 - UC Davis (home = Q4 loss, :disappointed: )
196 - Penn (neutral = Q3 win)

So, yeah. We have a Q1 win and a Q4 loss so far. Assuming the Kenpom is representative of what the Net ratings will be.



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Re: Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by Aggie84025 » November 23rd, 2021, 9:25 am

Obviously things can change, but there seems like there will be quite a few opportunities to get Q1/Q2 wins for the Aggies. The conference overall is performing well in OOC games which is huge because it start teams out higher going into conference play. The UC Davis loss hurts, but their are plenty of opportunities to get solid wins going forward. The Aggies have erased that loss really well and are in a good position if they can get some of these big wins. I would love to win at BYU, but the odds of winning are probably pretty low. The ST. Mary's game at home is a huge game and we have to win that. Iowa would be another huge win, but also a tall order. If the Aggies come out of the OOC slate with only 3 losses that would be pretty good.



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Re: Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by slcagg » November 23rd, 2021, 9:29 am

Iowa has not played anyone but averaging close to 100 pts. Think they are going to be extremely good. They have a small forward that will be a nightmare matchup.



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Re: Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by BigBlueDart » November 23rd, 2021, 9:52 am

And here's the Kenpom for our full schedule right now, with what quadrant they'd be in:

27 - @BYU (Q1)
28 - @Iowa (Q1)
40 - SDSU (Q2 home, Q1 away)
41 - Saint Mary's (Q2)
45 - Oklahoma, neutral (Q1)
50 - Colorado St (Q2 home, Q1 away)
57 - Boise St (Q2 home, Q1 away)
64 - Richmond, neutral (Q2)
85 - Nevada (Q3 home, Q2 away)
104 - @Weber St (Q2)
105 - NMSU, neutral (Q3)
122 - @Fresno St (Q2)
123 - UNLV (Q3)
124 - Wyoming (Q3 home, Q2 away)
191 - UC Davis (Q4)
196 - Penn, neutral (Q3)
223 - Portland St (Q4)
260 - New Mexico (Q4 x 2)
272 - Air Force (Q4 x 2)
275 - UT Arlington (Q4)
316 - New Orleans (Q4)
321 - SJSU (Q4 x 2)
N/A - Carroll College (not D1)

So, as things stand now (according to Pomeroy), and unless I've gotten something wrong, here are how many games we'll have in each quadrant:

Q1 - 6 games
Q2 - 9 games
Q3 - 5 games
Q4 - 10 games
non-D1 - 1 game
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Re: Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by Aggie84025 » November 23rd, 2021, 10:09 am

BigBlueDart wrote:
November 23rd, 2021, 9:52 am
And here's the Kenpom for our full schedule right now, with what quadrant they'd be in:

27 - @BYU (Q1)
28 - @Iowa (Q1)
40 - SDSU (Q2 home, Q1 away)
41 - Saint Mary's (Q2)
45 - Oklahoma, neutral (Q1)
50 - Colorado St (Q2 home, Q1 away)
57 - Boise St (Q2 home, Q1 away)
64 - Richmond, neutral (Q2)
85 - Nevada (Q3 home, Q2 away)
104 - @Weber St (Q2)
105 - NMSU, neutral (Q3)
122 - @Fresno St (Q2)
123 - UNLV (Q3)
124 - Wyoming (Q3 home, Q2 away)
191 - UC Davis (Q4)
196 - Penn, neutral (Q3)
223 - Portland St (Q4)
260 - New Mexico (Q4 x 2)
272 - Air Force (Q4 x 2)
275 - UT Arlington (Q4)
316 - New Orleans (Q4)
321 - SJSU (Q4 x 2)
N/A - Carroll College (not D1)

So, as things stand now (according to Pomeroy), and unless I've gotten something wrong, here are how many games we'll have in each quadrant:

Q1 - 6 games
Q2 - 9 games
Q3 - 5 games
Q4 - 10 games
non-D1 - 1 game
Thanks for compiling this. Obviously things can change, but 15 quad 1/2 games is huge as it provides lots of opportunities to get good wins.
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Re: Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by OrangeCountyAggie » November 23rd, 2021, 10:56 am

Two years ago when we played LSU, Florida, BYU, SDSU(x2) and St. Mary's was probably the toughest.



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Re: Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by flying_scotsman2.0 » November 23rd, 2021, 11:39 am

OrangeCountyAggie wrote:
November 23rd, 2021, 10:56 am
Two years ago when we played LSU, Florida, BYU, SDSU(x2) and St. Mary's was probably the toughest.
Were playing all those teams except LSU and Florida, but with OU, Iowa, Richmond, NMSU... I think this year is stronger, also I think the MW is stronger this year. With the exception of Nevada and SJSU, we’re looking good



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Re: Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by LoveMyAggies » November 23rd, 2021, 7:11 pm

I think some of these Q1 and Q2 games can swap depending on games leading up to conference games. I'll bet CSU wins the MW because they are a bit deeper than our group. Nevada is going to give everyone fits at the top, Boise will steal a few wins likely and SDSU is a virtual lock to be in the championship again this year they have reloaded.

What I am surprised with, is within 6 months Bean and Horvath have become a greater front-court tandem than Bean and Queta, IMHO. Although our sample size is much smaller, and this consistency from Bean remains to be seen. Heck, I want him to destroy the MW frontcourts. This year is going to be very interesting.



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Re: Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by Bank Shot » November 23rd, 2021, 9:17 pm

Davis getting destroyed by Sacramento State, so that loss is really leaning like staying a Q4.



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Re: Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by coolag » November 23rd, 2021, 10:08 pm

Bank Shot wrote:
November 23rd, 2021, 9:17 pm
Davis getting destroyed by Sacramento State, so that loss is really leaning like staying a Q4.
Not to bring up the past but I remember multiple posters come and lecture us about how uc Davis was a quality team and would not be as bad a loss and some of us were thinking. The team has definitely played great lately but that loss was still just.......awful. Hopefully it won't matter come selection time.


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Re: Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by Aggie84025 » November 23rd, 2021, 10:35 pm

coolag wrote:
November 23rd, 2021, 10:08 pm
Bank Shot wrote:
November 23rd, 2021, 9:17 pm
Davis getting destroyed by Sacramento State, so that loss is really leaning like staying a Q4.
Not to bring up the past but I remember multiple posters come and lecture us about how uc Davis was a quality team and would not be as bad a loss and some of us were thinking. The team has definitely played great lately but that loss was still just.......awful. Hopefully it won't matter come selection time.
It was a bad loss, but the Aggies have overcome it so far with their recent performance. There are a lot of future opportunities for the Aggies to cement their ticket. Similar to last year with the 2 bad losses to start. Our ken pom rankings are really good considering that loss.



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Re: Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by SwaggieAggie » November 24th, 2021, 9:22 am

What does the ranking have to be again to be considered a Q1 game on your home court? I have to imagine if Saint Mary's and CSU keep winning those could easily be Q1 opportunities in the Spectrum.



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Re: Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by SweepDance » November 24th, 2021, 9:33 am

Top 30 for home games. I always refer to the team page at this fine site for the breakdown of quadrants:

https://bracketologists.com/team/utah-state-aggies



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Re: Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by SectionBAggie » November 24th, 2021, 10:02 am

I thought that the Ivy League was DI. They get a bid in the Big Dance, right?



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Re: Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by Aggie formerly in Hawaii » November 24th, 2021, 10:21 am

Aggie84025 wrote:
November 23rd, 2021, 10:35 pm
coolag wrote:
November 23rd, 2021, 10:08 pm
Bank Shot wrote:
November 23rd, 2021, 9:17 pm
Davis getting destroyed by Sacramento State, so that loss is really leaning like staying a Q4.
Not to bring up the past but I remember multiple posters come and lecture us about how uc Davis was a quality team and would not be as bad a loss and some of us were thinking. The team has definitely played great lately but that loss was still just.......awful. Hopefully it won't matter come selection time.
It was a bad loss, but the Aggies have overcome it so far with their recent performance. There are a lot of future opportunities for the Aggies to cement their ticket. Similar to last year with the 2 bad losses to start. Our ken pom rankings are really good considering that loss.
Yep it was a bad loss. We shouldnt lose those ganes at the spectrum. At the same time it was never this season killing loss that some thought it was. As long as we avoid another bad loss like that we will be fine.



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Re: Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by BobWilson » November 26th, 2021, 7:35 am

A good schedule this year but the best? In pre-Stew days we played UU, BYU, and Weber each twice a year and usually was in a good preseason tournamen, winning some.. Then in conference we played nationally ranked UNLV and Fresno twice and sometime three times.
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Re: Toughest schedule in Aggie Basketball History?

Post by mcaggie1 » November 26th, 2021, 9:56 am

BobWilson wrote:
November 26th, 2021, 7:35 am
A good schedule this year but the best? In pre-Stew days we played UU, BYU, and Weber each twice a year and usually was in a good preseason tournamen, winning some.. Then in conference we played nationally ranked UNLV and Fresno twice and sometime three times.
And in 1969-70 we played Arizona State, Cal, national champion UCLA; Houston, Y twice, U twice, NMS two or three times. The next year we opened the Spectrum with a win over Ohio State, and also played LSU.
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