Bracketology

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Bracketology

Post by AKAggie03 » February 11th, 2020, 11:02 am

I don't think we are getting in unless we win the MWC Tourney.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... cketology/

Maybe if we win out and make it to the championship. But we need some help from LSU and Florida


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Re: Bracketology

Post by GUS » February 11th, 2020, 11:08 am

It would be a farce for the PAC12 to get 5 and the Big10 to get 11. PAC12 isn't that strong this year and if you can't be in the top half of your conference, you shouldn't get in.



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Re: Bracketology

Post by hipsterdoofus21 » February 11th, 2020, 11:12 am

I wouldn't put much stock into Joe Lunardi's pandering bracket of wonder.



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Re: Bracketology

Post by Agzrule » February 11th, 2020, 11:14 am

if, if we win out regular season and lose in conf. final against SDSU I don't think they can keep us out.



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Re: Bracketology

Post by Aggie in Boise » February 11th, 2020, 11:27 am

Lets win the conference tourney so we don't have to find out. It's possible that we might not even play SDSU again.



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Re: Bracketology

Post by Bank Shot » February 11th, 2020, 11:51 am

hipsterdoofus21 wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 11:12 am
I wouldn't put much stock into Joe Lunardi's pandering bracket of wonder.
There are a few major discrepancies between Lunardi and NET. Most glaring is him having Indiana (#62NET) as one of the last four in while having USU (#48) as 2nd in the Next four out. Also having Virginia (#54) and Wichita St (#50) as two of the last four byes in relation to USU.



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Re: Bracketology

Post by Bank Shot » February 11th, 2020, 11:53 am

Bank Shot wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 11:51 am
hipsterdoofus21 wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 11:12 am
I wouldn't put much stock into Joe Lunardi's pandering bracket of wonder.
There are a few major discrepancies between Lunardi and NET. Most glaring is him having Indiana (#62NET) as one of the last four in while having USU (#48) as 2nd in the Next four out. Also having Virginia (#54) and Wichita St (#50) as two of the last four byes in relation to USU. Also, as stated earlier, Florida better get their act together or we are gonna lose a Q1 win.



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Re: Bracketology

Post by TrueBlueAggie123 » February 11th, 2020, 12:21 pm

Can someone explain why BYU is getting so much love? They have the same record as us and we have better wins. They aren’t winning their conference and will probably be third behind St Mary’s and Gonzaga. They lost to St Mary’s, Boise, and SDSU, just like us, yet they are in every bracket? I saw them as high as a 6 seed in one. Are they factoring in Child’s being out the first part of the season?
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Re: Bracketology

Post by Rawbirds » February 11th, 2020, 12:33 pm

TrueBlueAggie123 wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 12:21 pm
Can someone explain why BYU is getting so much love? They have the same record as us and we have better wins. They aren’t winning their conference and will probably be third behind St Mary’s and Gonzaga. They lost to St Mary’s, Boise, and SDSU, just like us, yet they are in every bracket? I saw them as high as a 6 seed in one. Are they factoring in Child’s being out the first part of the season?
I hate seeing them ranked so high too. My guess it it comes down to strength of schedule, overall they're at 33 but their out of conference is 10th. To compare that with ours, we're at 100 and 110 respectively. They did lose to St Mary's but they also beat them and they've stacked up a lot of Q2 wins. Our conference isn't doing us any favors either.



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Re: Bracketology

Post by aggietime » February 11th, 2020, 12:43 pm

Rawbirds wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 12:33 pm
I hate seeing them ranked so high too. My guess it it comes down to strength of schedule, overall they're at 33 but their out of conference is 10th. To compare that with ours, we're at 100 and 110 respectively. They did lose to St Mary's but they also beat them and they've stacked up a lot of Q2 wins. Our conference isn't doing us any favors either.
I hate to admit it, but there is little doubt byu's resume is stronger than ours. No bad Q3 losses and three more Q2 wins. It would help if UNLV gets their act together and pushes that loss from a Q3 to a Q2. Thanks to the Bracketologist website for having all of this info in one place!

USU
Quad 1: 2 - 4
Quad 2: 1 - 1
Quad 3: 6 - 2
Quad 4: 8 - 0
Non D1: 2 - 0

byu
Quad 1: 2 - 5
Quad 2: 4 - 2
Quad 3: 4 - 0
Quad 4: 8 - 0
Non D1: 1 - 0



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Re: Bracketology

Post by ineptimusprime » February 11th, 2020, 1:10 pm

I’ll start thinking about brackets again if we win tonight and on Saturday. Until then, nah.
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Re: Bracketology

Post by gomretat » February 11th, 2020, 1:44 pm

ineptimusprime wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 1:10 pm
I’ll start thinking about brackets again if we win tonight and on Saturday. Until then, nah.
Agreed. We had some killer losses.
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Re: Bracketology

Post by Aggiealum13 » February 11th, 2020, 3:03 pm

aggietime wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 12:43 pm
Rawbirds wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 12:33 pm
I hate seeing them ranked so high too. My guess it it comes down to strength of schedule, overall they're at 33 but their out of conference is 10th. To compare that with ours, we're at 100 and 110 respectively. They did lose to St Mary's but they also beat them and they've stacked up a lot of Q2 wins. Our conference isn't doing us any favors either.
I hate to admit it, but there is little doubt byu's resume is stronger than ours. No bad Q3 losses and three more Q2 wins. It would help if UNLV gets their act together and pushes that loss from a Q3 to a Q2. Thanks to the Bracketologist website for having all of this info in one place!

USU
Quad 1: 2 - 4
Quad 2: 1 - 1
Quad 3: 6 - 2
Quad 4: 8 - 0
Non D1: 2 - 0

byu
Quad 1: 2 - 5
Quad 2: 4 - 2
Quad 3: 4 - 0
Quad 4: 8 - 0
Non D1: 1 - 0

Actually BYU has 3 Q1 wins. Houston, Saint Mary's, and us. Unless BYU has an epic collapse down the stretch, they will get into the big dance as an at-large bid. They won't need to win the conference tournament.



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Re: Bracketology

Post by ProvoAggie » February 11th, 2020, 3:06 pm

Aggiealum13 wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:03 pm
Actually BYU has 3 Q1 wins. Houston, Saint Mary's, and us. Unless BYU has an epic collapse down the stretch, they will get into the big dance as an at-large bid. They won't need to win the conference tournament.
BYU lost at Saint Mary's which was a Q1 game. They won in Provo but that's a Q2.



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Re: Bracketology

Post by Roy McAvoy » February 11th, 2020, 3:10 pm

I think it's pretty simple. If we win out and lose to SDSU in the conference championship I think we're in. If we lose another game before that I think we're out.
Last edited by Roy McAvoy on February 11th, 2020, 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bracketology

Post by ThunderAggie » February 11th, 2020, 3:14 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:10 pm
I think it's pretty simple. If we win out and lose to SDSU conference championship I think we're in. If we lose another game before that I think we're out.
Yep that is what I think too. We need SDSU to win out as well and stay undefeated, although that probably wouldn't do too much. It would just be nice to have the argument that we have faced a team that went undefeated that season 3 times! It would help for the top teams we beat to do well in their conferences as well as the teams we lost to, in MW and out of MW to finish strong.



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Re: Bracketology

Post by aggies22 » February 11th, 2020, 3:19 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:10 pm
I think it's pretty simple. If we win out and lose to SDSU in the conference championship I think we're in. If we lose another game before that I think we're out.
Tonight's the big one in my opinion.



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Re: Bracketology

Post by Aggiealum13 » February 11th, 2020, 3:25 pm

ProvoAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:06 pm
Aggiealum13 wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:03 pm
Actually BYU has 3 Q1 wins. Houston, Saint Mary's, and us. Unless BYU has an epic collapse down the stretch, they will get into the big dance as an at-large bid. They won't need to win the conference tournament.
BYU lost at Saint Mary's which was a Q1 game. They won in Provo but that's a Q2.
Isn't a Q1 win a victory over a top 50 net ranking team? If so, Saint Mary's is currently 39 which would be a Q1 win. I'm just asking for understanding of the rule.



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Re: Bracketology

Post by ProvoAggie » February 11th, 2020, 3:27 pm

Aggiealum13 wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:25 pm
ProvoAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:06 pm
Aggiealum13 wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:03 pm
Actually BYU has 3 Q1 wins. Houston, Saint Mary's, and us. Unless BYU has an epic collapse down the stretch, they will get into the big dance as an at-large bid. They won't need to win the conference tournament.
BYU lost at Saint Mary's which was a Q1 game. They won in Provo but that's a Q2.
Isn't a Q1 win a victory over a top 50 net ranking team? If so, Saint Mary's is currently 39 which would be a Q1 win. I'm just asking for understanding of the rule.
No. The quadrants are different depending on if the game is at home, away or neutral. Q1 is 1-15 at home, 1-25 on a neutral court and 1-40 for road games.

https://bracketologists.com/teamsheet/byu-cougars



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Re: Bracketology

Post by Real Life Aggie » February 11th, 2020, 3:28 pm

ProvoAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:27 pm
Aggiealum13 wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:25 pm
ProvoAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:06 pm
Aggiealum13 wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:03 pm
Actually BYU has 3 Q1 wins. Houston, Saint Mary's, and us. Unless BYU has an epic collapse down the stretch, they will get into the big dance as an at-large bid. They won't need to win the conference tournament.
BYU lost at Saint Mary's which was a Q1 game. They won in Provo but that's a Q2.
Isn't a Q1 win a victory over a top 50 net ranking team? If so, Saint Mary's is currently 39 which would be a Q1 win. I'm just asking for understanding of the rule.
No. The quadrants are different depending on if the game is at home, away or neutral. Q1 is 1-15 at home, 1-25 on a neutral court and 1-40 for road games.

https://bracketologists.com/teamsheet/byu-cougars
I thought it was 1-30 at home?

https://bracketologists.com/team/byu-cougars



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Re: Bracketology

Post by Bank Shot » February 11th, 2020, 3:30 pm

Q1 is 1-30 at home, 1-50 neutral and 1-75 away. I think there is a glitch on the Cougar page.

Edit: glitch went away when i refreshed the page.



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Re: Bracketology

Post by Aggiealum13 » February 11th, 2020, 3:31 pm

ProvoAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:27 pm
Aggiealum13 wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:25 pm
ProvoAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:06 pm
Aggiealum13 wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:03 pm
Actually BYU has 3 Q1 wins. Houston, Saint Mary's, and us. Unless BYU has an epic collapse down the stretch, they will get into the big dance as an at-large bid. They won't need to win the conference tournament.
BYU lost at Saint Mary's which was a Q1 game. They won in Provo but that's a Q2.
Isn't a Q1 win a victory over a top 50 net ranking team? If so, Saint Mary's is currently 39 which would be a Q1 win. I'm just asking for understanding of the rule.
No. The quadrants are different depending on if the game is at home, away or neutral. Q1 is 1-15 at home, 1-25 on a neutral court and 1-40 for road games.

https://bracketologists.com/teamsheet/byu-cougars
Got it. The quadrants were always a little confusing.



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Re: Bracketology

Post by ProvoAggie » February 11th, 2020, 3:32 pm

You guys are right and the page is actually correct as well. I forgot that the NCAA now breaks the quads up even further than Q1-4. They have Q1A, Q1B,Q2A, and Q2B. The numbers I provided were simply for Q1A.



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Re: Bracketology

Post by Aggiealum13 » February 11th, 2020, 3:53 pm

ProvoAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:32 pm
You guys are right and the page is actually correct as well. I forgot that the NCAA now breaks the quads up even further than Q1-4. They have Q1A, Q1B,Q2A, and Q2B. The numbers I provided were simply for Q1A.
Quadrant 1: Home games vs. teams ranked in the top 30 net ranking; neutral games vs. 1-50; away games vs. 1-75.
Quadrant 2: Home vs. 31-75 teams; neutral vs. 51-100; away vs. 76-135.
Quadrant 3: Home vs. 76-160 teams; neutral vs. 101-200; away vs. 136-240.
Quadrant 4: Home vs. 161-plus teams; neutral vs. 201-plus; away vs. 241-plus.

My Utah State professors always told me not to always rely on wikipedia, but here it is and it looks accurate. The link says RPI in place of net rankings, but in next paragraph it says net rankings has replaced RPI.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rating_pe ... #Quadrants



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Re: Bracketology

Post by utaggies » February 11th, 2020, 3:56 pm

ineptimusprime wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 1:10 pm
I’ll start thinking about brackets again if we win tonight and on Saturday. Until then, nah.
Agreed. I hate, hate, hate it when (for instance) in the middle of a hotly contested game against BSU someone in chat brings up the effects of a win or a loss on our NET rating! :bangwall: Our NET, SOS bracketology projections and the effects of an LSU or Florida win are all absolutely WORTHLESS unless we win out in our remaining regular season games — starting tonight against CSU. That’s as far ahead as I am looking.



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Re: Bracketology

Post by Yossarian » February 11th, 2020, 3:59 pm

If USU doesn't get the autobid by winning the MWCT, they will not get in the NCAA tournament by way of an at-large bid. They have stumbled too many times and the MW is not a strong enough conference to justify the losses. It's a sad time when the WCC is a three-bid conference and the once-mighty MW is a one-bid. We needed a win over BYU or St Mary's to make up for the AFA/UNLV/BSU losses.
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Re: Bracketology

Post by Aggiealum13 » February 11th, 2020, 4:02 pm

https://bracketologists.com/team/utah-state-aggies

It looks like our best games left that would be Q2 wins are tonight vs Colorado State and @New Mexico. Winning those games will help, but I agree with most that we would have to AT LEAST win out all the way to MWC tournament championship game against SDSU to have a bubble's chance of getting into big dance as an at-large bid. No more slip ups.
Last edited by Aggiealum13 on February 11th, 2020, 4:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.



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Re: Bracketology

Post by ProvoAggie » February 11th, 2020, 4:04 pm

Aggiealum13 wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:53 pm
ProvoAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:32 pm
You guys are right and the page is actually correct as well. I forgot that the NCAA now breaks the quads up even further than Q1-4. They have Q1A, Q1B,Q2A, and Q2B. The numbers I provided were simply for Q1A.
Quadrant 1: Home games vs. teams ranked in the top 30 net ranking; neutral games vs. 1-50; away games vs. 1-75.
Quadrant 2: Home vs. 31-75 teams; neutral vs. 51-100; away vs. 76-135.
Quadrant 3: Home vs. 76-160 teams; neutral vs. 101-200; away vs. 136-240.
Quadrant 4: Home vs. 161-plus teams; neutral vs. 201-plus; away vs. 241-plus.

My Utah State professors always told me not to always rely on wikipedia, but here it is and it looks accurate. The link says RPI in place of net rankings, but in next paragraph it says net rankings has replaced RPI.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rating_pe ... #Quadrants
That is the official breakdown but the NCAA changed the team sheets that they give to committee members a couple of months ago to split up the Q1 and Q2 into A and B quadrants. You can see the official team sheets that we patterned ours after (and also that the committee uses) here:
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/St ... 202020.pdf
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Re: Bracketology

Post by WannabeAgAlum » February 11th, 2020, 4:09 pm

I care only a little about this. Just make sure we're on a roll come tourney time and this won't matter.

I wonder if "load management" makes more sense in college ball than the pros given the monumental importance of a three or four day period of the schedule. Would we have a better chance of winning the tourney if Sam/Queta/Bean took 10 days off before the tourney? Maybe yes if any of them is nursing an injury. Bracketology be damned.



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Re: Bracketology

Post by bigwilly087 » February 11th, 2020, 10:56 pm

ProvoAggie wrote:
Aggiealum13 wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:53 pm
ProvoAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:32 pm
You guys are right and the page is actually correct as well. I forgot that the NCAA now breaks the quads up even further than Q1-4. They have Q1A, Q1B,Q2A, and Q2B. The numbers I provided were simply for Q1A.
Quadrant 1: Home games vs. teams ranked in the top 30 net ranking; neutral games vs. 1-50; away games vs. 1-75.
Quadrant 2: Home vs. 31-75 teams; neutral vs. 51-100; away vs. 76-135.
Quadrant 3: Home vs. 76-160 teams; neutral vs. 101-200; away vs. 136-240.
Quadrant 4: Home vs. 161-plus teams; neutral vs. 201-plus; away vs. 241-plus.

My Utah State professors always told me not to always rely on wikipedia, but here it is and it looks accurate. The link says RPI in place of net rankings, but in next paragraph it says net rankings has replaced RPI.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rating_pe ... #Quadrants
That is the official breakdown but the NCAA changed the team sheets that they give to committee members a couple of months ago to split up the Q1 and Q2 into A and B quadrants. You can see the official team sheets that we patterned ours after (and also that the committee uses) here:
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/St ... 202020.pdf
Thanks. Any idea what it means when the date is highlighted in grey?


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Re: Bracketology

Post by ProvoAggie » February 11th, 2020, 10:59 pm

bigwilly087 wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 10:56 pm
Thanks. Any idea what it means when the date is highlighted in grey?
Those are overtime games.



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Re: Bracketology

Post by ineptimusprime » February 11th, 2020, 11:12 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 3:10 pm
I think it's pretty simple. If we win out and lose to SDSU in the conference championship I think we're in. If we lose another game before that I think we're out.
I think winning out through the conference semis may be enough. 25-8 with wins over LSU and Florida should get us an 11 seed, but it’d be close.



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