Can we win with only three productive players?

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Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by ChicAggie » February 9th, 2020, 2:44 pm

Since our pre-conference schedule included a decent number of cupcakes, Queta was out, and two players who performed well pre-conference - Brito and Anderson - have struggled or been uneven in conference games, this discussion is intended to focus ONLY on conference play.

In conference play, we have had only three (fairly) consistently productive players: Bean, Merrill, and Queta. No one else who has gotten any meaningful playing time (10+ MPG) has really helped the Aggies win basketball games. Is it possible to win ball games with so many holes? Outside the big three, the numbers tell a pretty bleak story:

Big three:

Player.....MPG......PPG......RPG......APG.....TOPG......PER.........TS%.......ORtg.......DRtg......NetRtg.......WS/40
Merrill.....35.8.......18.2......3.4.......3.8.......1.6.........22.3..... .597.......122.6.....102.1.....+20.5....... .198
Bean.......30.6.......11.2.......9.6......1.5.......1.1.........25.1..... .587.......125.0.......91.2.....+33.2....... .216.
Queta......26.1.......13.0.......6.5......1.9.......2.5.........26.3..... .680.......115.1......95.3.....+28.8....... .193

Others:

Player..........MPG.......PPG......RPG......APG.....TOPG......PER......TS%.......ORtg.......DRtg......NetRtg......WS/40
Miller............28.1.......7.7.......2.5.......0.9.......1.4.........6.2..... .446.......88.2.....104.5.....-16.3....... .035
Brito.............26.6.......7.7.......4.8.......2.3.......1.6.......12.5..... .445.......92.0.......95.2.......-3.2....... .085
Porter...........26.5.......5.2.......2.8.......3.0.......1.7.........8.0..... .472.......94.7.....101.9.......-7.2....... .065
Anderson.....14.8.......5.1.......2.6.......0.5.......0.8.......10.6..... .445.......91.2.....101.1.......-9.9....... .061
Bairstow......11.8.......2.5.......1.5.......0.8.......1.1.........3.4..... .473.......77.8.....103.3......-25.5...... .007

Looking at the advanced stats, the big three are all above average on the key advanced metrics; every other player receiving 10+ MPG has been below average to horrendous in every key advanced metric. Not a recipe for winning ball games. Unlike some sports, it is very difficult to win games with so many holes on your team -- particularly when the three positive players account for only 46% of the total minutes played, while the rest of the players who have been more negative than positive account for 54% of the minutes played.

These numbers suggest that at least two players on the current roster receiving significant playing time should have been/should be recruited over. I leave it to you to figure out which two players I mean.

By way of reminder:

* Player Efficiency Rating (PER sums up all a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player's performance - 15.0 is average; below 10 is awful)

* True Shooting Percentage (TS% shows which players are scoring efficiently - college average is around .550)

* Offensive Rating (ORtg estimates the number of points produced by the player per 100 possessions due to all of his individual contributions)

* Defensive Rating (DRtg estimates the number of points allowed by the player per 100 possessions due to all of his individual contributions)

* Net Rating (NetRtg estimates how many net points per 100 possessions a team outscores an opponent by or is outscored by an opponent due to an individual player's contributions on both the offensive and defensive ends of the court - a positive number is good; a negative number is bad)

* Win/Shares per 40 (WS/40 estimates the level of contribution each player makes to a team win going beyond points, rebounds and oth­er tra­di­tion­al stats, paint­ing a more com­plete pic­ture of that player’s contributions - average is approximately .100, meaning that a team full of players with WS/40 of .100 probably wins about 50% of their games -- and a team with a majority of players below .100 will tend to struggle)


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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by brownjeans » February 9th, 2020, 7:26 pm

Depends on the meaning of win.

We can win a lot of games, but not a championship



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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by 2004AG » February 9th, 2020, 7:36 pm

ChicAggie wrote:Since our pre-conference schedule included a decent number of cupcakes, Queta was out, and two players who performed well pre-conference - Brito and Anderson - have struggled or been uneven in conference games, this discussion is intended to focus ONLY on conference play.

In conference play, we have had only three (fairly) consistently productive players: Bean, Merrill, and Queta. No one else who has gotten any meaningful playing time (10+ MPG) has really helped the Aggies win basketball games. Is it possible to win ball games with so many holes? Outside the big three, the numbers tell a pretty bleak story:

Big three:

Player.....MPG......PPG......RPG......APG.....TOPG......PER.........TS%.......ORtg.......DRtg......NetRtg.......WS/40
Merrill.....35.8.......18.2......3.4.......3.8.......1.6.........22.3..... .597.......122.6.....102.1.....+20.5....... .198
Bean.......30.6.......11.2.......9.6......1.5.......1.1.........25.1..... .587.......125.0.......91.2.....+33.2....... .216.
Queta......26.1.......13.0.......6.5......1.9.......2.5.........26.3..... .680.......115.1......95.3.....+28.8....... .193

Others:

Player..........MPG.......PPG......RPG......APG.....TOPG......PER......TS%.......ORtg.......DRtg......NetRtg......WS/40
Miller............28.1.......7.7.......2.5.......0.9.......1.4.........6.2..... .446.......88.2.....104.5.....-16.3....... .035
Brito.............26.6.......7.7.......4.8.......2.3.......1.6.......12.5..... .445.......92.0.......95.2.......-3.2....... .085
Porter...........26.5.......5.2.......2.8.......3.0.......1.7.........8.0..... .472.......94.7.....101.9.......-7.2....... .065
Anderson.....14.8.......5.1.......2.6.......0.5.......0.8.......10.6..... .445.......91.2.....101.1.......-9.9....... .061
Bairstow......11.8.......2.5.......1.5.......0.8.......1.1.........3.4..... .473.......77.8.....103.3......-25.5...... .007

Looking at the advanced stats, the big three are all above average on the key advanced metrics; every other player receiving 10+ MPG has been below average to horrendous in every key advanced metric. Not a recipe for winning ball games. Unlike some sports, it is very difficult to win games with so many holes on your team -- particularly when the three positive players account for only 46% of the total minutes played, while the rest of the players who have been more negative than positive account for 54% of the minutes played.

These numbers suggest that at least two players on the current roster receiving significant playing time should have been/should be recruited over. I leave it to you to figure out which two players I mean.

By way of reminder:

* Player Efficiency Rating (PER sums up all a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player's performance - 15.0 is average; below 10 is awful)

* True Shooting Percentage (TS% shows which players are scoring efficiently - college average is around .550)

* Offensive Rating (ORtg estimates the number of points produced by the player per 100 possessions due to all of his individual contributions)

* Defensive Rating (DRtg estimates the number of points allowed by the player per 100 possessions due to all of his individual contributions)

* Net Rating (NetRtg estimates how many net points per 100 possessions a team outscores an opponent by or is outscored by an opponent due to an individual player's contributions on both the offensive and defensive ends of the court - a positive number is good; a negative number is bad)

* Win/Shares per 40 (WS/40 estimates the level of contribution each player makes to a team win going beyond points, rebounds and oth­er tra­di­tion­al stats, paint­ing a more com­plete pic­ture of that player’s contributions - average is approximately .100, meaning that a team full of players with WS/40 of .100 probably wins about 50% of their games -- and a team with a majority of players below .100 will tend to struggle)
No we can’t.


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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by Intermeddler » February 9th, 2020, 8:11 pm

Miller's advanced stats are just brutal. Bairstow bad too but he is playing fewer minutes so his usage is probably much lower.

I know he has become a bit of a punching bag on here so I don't want to pile on but he is objectively a very bad basketball player and should not play substantial minutes.

I think it has been a mistake to redshirt McChesney. He is supposedly the best shooter on the team. I am sure he needs time to add good weight and learn the defense but Miller is terrible on that end. Brito has also been bad but nothing close to Miller.



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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by Aggie84025 » February 9th, 2020, 8:17 pm

It is tough, but a little perspective never hurts. 2 years ago under Duryea if you could foresee to now and be 19-7 overall and coming off a MW championship would you take it? I am not downplaying that we have several players that are struggling. With that being said we are still by most standards a successful season. We are on track to have our 2nd highest finish since joining the MW. This season surely has not turned out I had hoped and expected, but if I could have foreseen this 2-3 years ago I would have for surely taken it.
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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by usu99 » February 9th, 2020, 8:45 pm

uhh think how bad next year will be if Queta leaves....


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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by NavyBlueAggie » February 9th, 2020, 9:31 pm

brownjeans wrote:
February 9th, 2020, 7:26 pm
Depends on the meaning of win.

We can win a lot of games, but not a championship
THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Solid brownjeans...solid....



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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by aggies22 » February 9th, 2020, 10:04 pm

usu99 wrote:
February 9th, 2020, 8:45 pm
uhh think how bad next year will be if Queta leaves....
Think how awesome it's going to be when Queta stays and we add Nigel John.
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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by BigSkyAG » February 9th, 2020, 10:57 pm

I like where your heads at 22. Nice stats Chic.



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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by FloridaAggie13 » February 10th, 2020, 8:28 am

Other than the elite teams in all of college basketball, typically most teams are relying on three very productive offensive players while the rest of the team fills in the gaps each night scrambling for rebounds and loose balls and few contributions on offense. As long as the supporting cast isn't a huge negative - lots of turnovers, inability to play D', or flat out can't shoot, that is the mix.

The biggest weakness right now is we can't find a wing who can shoot consistently enough to take pressure off of Merrill and Queta and play wing defense.



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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by treesap32 » February 10th, 2020, 9:08 am

FloridaAggie13 wrote:
February 10th, 2020, 8:28 am
Other than the elite teams in all of college basketball, typically most teams are relying on three very productive offensive players while the rest of the team fills in the gaps each night scrambling for rebounds and loose balls and few contributions on offense. As long as the supporting cast isn't a huge negative - lots of turnovers, inability to play D', or flat out can't shoot, that is the mix.

The biggest weakness right now is we can't find a wing who can shoot consistently enough to take pressure off of Merrill and Queta and play wing defense.
Check. Check. Check.

Hopefully we'll see some improvement. We're going to need it tomorrow night, for sure.
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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by Murkymerk » February 10th, 2020, 10:56 am

Our 2 elite players and 1 very good player make us tough to beat. If the other rotation guys play to their (poor) average, we will beat most teams, as evidenced by our 19-7 record. And if one or two of other guys play out of their minds, like Anderson and Brito against LSU, then we can beat almost anyone in the country. Think about how either San Diego game would have gone with 2 guys outside of our top 3 playing well. I think Miller played well once this season In a win, but it don’t remember when. And then we have nights when most outside of our top 3 play really badly, and then it is really hard to win.
This is really all just piggy backing off of Brown Jeans, but pointing out that we’ve had guys step up at times. And if they do that again, we can absolutely win a league championship. However, it doesn’t seem too likely.based on more recent performance.
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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by ThunderAggie » February 10th, 2020, 11:20 am

Murkymerk wrote:
February 10th, 2020, 10:56 am
Our 2 elite players and 1 very good player make us tough to beat. If the other rotation guys play to their (poor) average, we will beat most teams, as evidenced by our 19-7 record. And if one or two of other guys play out of their minds, like Anderson and Brito against LSU, then we can beat almost anyone in the country. Think about how either San Diego game would have gone with 2 guys outside of our top 3 playing well. I think Miller played well once this season In a win, but it don’t remember when. And then we have nights when most outside of our top 3 play really badly, and then it is really hard to win.
This is really all just piggy backing off of Brown Jeans, but pointing out that we’ve had guys step up at times. And if they do that again, we can absolutely win a league championship. However, it doesn’t seem too likely.based on more recent performance.
Spot on! We are a very scary team when our non top 3 guys step up! Especially if they are hitting the 3 ball.



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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by ChicAggie » February 11th, 2020, 8:08 am

Aggie84025 wrote:
February 9th, 2020, 8:17 pm
It is tough, but a little perspective never hurts. 2 years ago under Duryea if you could foresee to now and be 19-7 overall and coming off a MW championship would you take it? I am not downplaying that we have several players that are struggling. With that being said we are still by most standards a successful season. We are on track to have our 2nd highest finish since joining the MW. This season surely has not turned out I had hoped and expected, but if I could have foreseen this 2-3 years ago I would have for surely taken it.
I totally agree with your sentiment 84025, but see my signature: Good is the enemy of great. If we're satisfied to settle for what we have, the Aggies will never be "great" (though, for Aggie standards, they were pretty close to "great" last season). To become "great," we simply cannot have so many holes. I suspect Smith was reluctant to recruit over Porter given that he played fairly well in conference play last season, and there seemed to be a great team chemistry that Smith didn't want to mess with. Chemistry may also explain why Smith didn't recruit over Miller, but perhaps he has also been impressed with what I understand is great shooting in practice that for some reason that doesn't translate to games (see, e.g., Nick Hammer). But whatever the reason, 2020 hindsight seems to suggest both players should have been recruited over.
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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by ChicAggie » February 11th, 2020, 8:11 am

FloridaAggie13 wrote:
February 10th, 2020, 8:28 am
most teams are relying on three very productive offensive players while the rest of the team fills in the gaps each night scrambling for rebounds and loose balls and few contributions on offense
Most GOOD teams that are vying for conference championships have at least five players who could be starters on other teams without so many glaring holes. Unfortunately, the Aggies seem to have only three of those players (with Brito and Anderson also showing occasional flashes of being in that category). Porter and Miller have not played at a starting level for a winning team and would be at the far end of the bench on most winning teams.


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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by ChicAggie » February 11th, 2020, 8:13 am

Murkymerk wrote:
February 10th, 2020, 10:56 am
Our 2 elite players and 1 very good player make us tough to beat.
Interesting that you single out one player as not being on the same level as the other two. I assume you mean Bean -- though the advanced stats (both NetRtg and WS/40) suggest he has actually contributed more to wins than Merrill and Queta.


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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by Murkymerk » February 11th, 2020, 8:30 am

ChicAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 8:13 am
Murkymerk wrote:
February 10th, 2020, 10:56 am
Our 2 elite players and 1 very good player make us tough to beat.
Interesting that you single out one player as not being on the same level as the other two. I assume you mean Bean -- though the advanced stats (both NetRtg and WS/40) suggest he has actually contributed more to wins than Merrill and Queta.
You’re right, I was referring to Bean as not elite. And you’re right that the advanced stats show that he contributes more to our winning ways than Queta or Merrill. I love Justin Bean, he’s actually my favorite player on this team. I guess the eye test and outside perceptions are what make me put him a tier below the other two. Merrill is returning conference player of the year, and is probably a top 3 candidate for it again. Queta is returning defensive player of the year, and if not for injuries, would likely have repeated. And he is being projected as a potential first round draft pick. Bean gets mocked on national TV because he doesn’t look like a great athlete. I would assume Bean is in contention for a second team all conference bid, but I don’t think anyone would be shocked if he didn’t get any kind of conference accolades.



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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by Real Life Aggie » February 11th, 2020, 9:55 am

Murkymerk wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 8:30 am
ChicAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 8:13 am
Murkymerk wrote:
February 10th, 2020, 10:56 am
Our 2 elite players and 1 very good player make us tough to beat.
Interesting that you single out one player as not being on the same level as the other two. I assume you mean Bean -- though the advanced stats (both NetRtg and WS/40) suggest he has actually contributed more to wins than Merrill and Queta.
You’re right, I was referring to Bean as not elite. And you’re right that the advanced stats show that he contributes more to our winning ways than Queta or Merrill. I love Justin Bean, he’s actually my favorite player on this team. I guess the eye test and outside perceptions are what make me put him a tier below the other two. Merrill is returning conference player of the year, and is probably a top 3 candidate for it again. Queta is returning defensive player of the year, and if not for injuries, would likely have repeated. And he is being projected as a potential first round draft pick. Bean gets mocked on national TV because he doesn’t look like a great athlete. I would assume Bean is in contention for a second team all conference bid, but I don’t think anyone would be shocked if he didn’t get any kind of conference accolades.
I think you're taking that a little personally. They were very complimentary and raved over how great Bean was. He just mentioned with the mask, the headband, and the knee thing made him look goofy, but not to underestimate how much of an incredible player he is. Seems like you're getting a little butthurt over something silly.



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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by Murkymerk » February 11th, 2020, 11:23 am

Real Life Aggie wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 9:55 am
Murkymerk wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 8:30 am
ChicAggie wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 8:13 am
Murkymerk wrote:
February 10th, 2020, 10:56 am
Our 2 elite players and 1 very good player make us tough to beat.
Interesting that you single out one player as not being on the same level as the other two. I assume you mean Bean -- though the advanced stats (both NetRtg and WS/40) suggest he has actually contributed more to wins than Merrill and Queta.
You’re right, I was referring to Bean as not elite. And you’re right that the advanced stats show that he contributes more to our winning ways than Queta or Merrill. I love Justin Bean, he’s actually my favorite player on this team. I guess the eye test and outside perceptions are what make me put him a tier below the other two. Merrill is returning conference player of the year, and is probably a top 3 candidate for it again. Queta is returning defensive player of the year, and if not for injuries, would likely have repeated. And he is being projected as a potential first round draft pick. Bean gets mocked on national TV because he doesn’t look like a great athlete. I would assume Bean is in contention for a second team all conference bid, but I don’t think anyone would be shocked if he didn’t get any kind of conference accolades.
I think you're taking that a little personally. They were very complimentary and raved over how great Bean was. He just mentioned with the mask, the headband, and the knee thing made him look goofy, but not to underestimate how much of an incredible player he is. Seems like you're getting a little butthurt over something silly.
You got me. I’m butthurt by what Some dude said about another person’s appearance like 2 month ago :crazy: . Or maybe I was using it as an example of how differently people view Bean compared to Queta or Merrill.



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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by Coloraggie » February 11th, 2020, 10:54 pm

Simple fact is Bean has not been nearly as good in conference a he was out of conference. Some off that is with Queta back he has fewer opportunities for rebounds and fewer shots, however he seems to be missing more inside/ layups that he was in OOC. OOC he was our MVP, in conference he is solid but definitely behind Merrill and Queta by a large margin, IMO.
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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by Real Life Aggie » February 12th, 2020, 9:14 am

Coloraggie wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 10:54 pm
Simple fact is Bean has not been nearly as good in conference a he was out of conference. Some off that is with Queta back he has fewer opportunities for rebounds and fewer shots, however he seems to be missing more inside/ layups that he was in OOC. OOC he was our MVP, in conference he is solid but definitely behind Merrill and Queta by a large margin, IMO.
Earlier this week, I went back and watched some of the early games we had against lesser teams... The difference is more than just the level of competition we're playing against now. I didn't notice too much of a difference with Bean, but Porter and Brito were much different. They looked great in those games. Either Porter's back is really messing him up or he's got some confidence issues, but he barely seems the same person.



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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by lcrasmus » February 12th, 2020, 11:54 am

We've lost one more game this year compared to the same date in last season. Some losses this year have been worse (UNLV, AFA this year vs. ASU and Fresno last) but some wins have been better (LSU and Florida vs St Mary's and UC Irvine, to this point.)

I think the "can we even win" downplays the fact that, even with our losses this year, we're having a better season than 8 out of the past 9 years. Expectations were sky high, major injuries and setbacks happened, and we're still in the drivers seat for 2nd place in the conference behind the only undefeated team in the nation.

Might be worth considering?
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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by dirtnsnow » February 12th, 2020, 12:01 pm

lcrasmus wrote:
February 12th, 2020, 11:54 am
We've lost one more game this year compared to the same date in last season. Some losses this year have been worse (UNLV, AFA this year vs. ASU and Fresno last) but some wins have been better (LSU and Florida vs St Mary's and UC Irvine, to this point.)

I think the "can we even win" downplays the fact that, even with our losses this year, we're having a better season than 8 out of the past 9 years. Expectations were sky high, major injuries and setbacks happened, and we're still in the drivers seat for 2nd place in the conference behind the only undefeated team in the nation.

Might be worth considering?
I like this perspective, and will try to adopt it more. It's just that exceeding expectations is more fun than coming short of them.
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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by Aggie84025 » February 12th, 2020, 1:00 pm

lcrasmus wrote:
February 12th, 2020, 11:54 am
We've lost one more game this year compared to the same date in last season. Some losses this year have been worse (UNLV, AFA this year vs. ASU and Fresno last) but some wins have been better (LSU and Florida vs St Mary's and UC Irvine, to this point.)

I think the "can we even win" downplays the fact that, even with our losses this year, we're having a better season than 8 out of the past 9 years. Expectations were sky high, major injuries and setbacks happened, and we're still in the drivers seat for 2nd place in the conference behind the only undefeated team in the nation.

Might be worth considering?
This is a great perspective. Considering where we were at the last few years of Stew and then the Duryea years this is fantastic. Expectations were sky high this year, but even after those super frustrating losses I feel the team is really turning the corner. Most other years we would be in the running for the conference regular season championship.



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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by Real Life Aggie » February 12th, 2020, 3:22 pm

lcrasmus wrote:
February 12th, 2020, 11:54 am
We've lost one more game this year compared to the same date in last season. Some losses this year have been worse (UNLV, AFA this year vs. ASU and Fresno last) but some wins have been better (LSU and Florida vs St Mary's and UC Irvine, to this point.)

I think the "can we even win" downplays the fact that, even with our losses this year, we're having a better season than 8 out of the past 9 years. Expectations were sky high, major injuries and setbacks happened, and we're still in the drivers seat for 2nd place in the conference behind the only undefeated team in the nation.

Might be worth considering?
Agreed! I just posted something similar, though less well-said, in another thread. I should have come here instead. The point being... we're in a good place. Let's enjoy it.



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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by ChicAggie » February 13th, 2020, 8:46 am

I should have been more clear about the question posted in the OP: "can we win" was not intended to imply "can we win a single game," it was intended to imply "can we win enough to make the NCAA tournament and perhaps win a game or two there?" I came into this season suggesting I would be highly disappointed if we didn't win at least one NCAA tournament game this season, but now I am not even expecting to make the tournament. I think we CAN make the tournament; I'm just no longer expecting it given the complete lack of consistent production from anyone not named Merrill, Queta, and Bean.


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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by ChicAggie » February 13th, 2020, 8:50 am

Coloraggie wrote:
February 11th, 2020, 10:54 pm
Simple fact is Bean has not been nearly as good in conference a he was out of conference. Some off that is with Queta back he has fewer opportunities for rebounds and fewer shots, however he seems to be missing more inside/ layups that he was in OOC. OOC he was our MVP, in conference he is solid but definitely behind Merrill and Queta by a large margin, IMO.
It's a "simple fact" that Bean "has not been nearly as good in conference as he was out of conference?" If Bean was better OOC, it was only slightly better. The numbers across the board suggest Bean has been arguably the team MVP in conference games. Your eye test may be failing you.


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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by brownjeans » February 13th, 2020, 8:59 am

ChicAggie wrote:
February 13th, 2020, 8:46 am
I should have been more clear about the question posted in the OP: "can we win" was not intended to imply "can we win a single game," it was intended to imply "can we win enough to make the NCAA tournament and perhaps win a game or two there?" I came into this season suggesting I would be highly disappointed if we didn't win at least one NCAA tournament game this season, but now I am not even expecting to make the tournament. I think we CAN make the tournament; I'm just no longer expecting it given the complete lack of consistent production from anyone not named Merrill, Queta, and Bean.
If this is the question, then my answer is I don't think so. Like you, I expected this team to be as good or better than last year. We're not. This is a typical good, not great, USU team. Like comparable USU teams, we're a bubble team and if we make it to the NCAA or NIT, we're likely to play one game and lose it.
That hurts me to say that, but we just don't have guys that can consistently make shots. We have to rely on someone playing an outlier, better-than-normal game to win at a high level. That's unlikely (and why they call them outliers).



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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by aggies22 » February 13th, 2020, 11:53 am

Ajay Salvesen tweeted out an interesting stat. The Aggies are 27-0 over the last two years when Diogo Brito scores in double figures.
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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by scotlandog » February 13th, 2020, 12:04 pm

aggies22 wrote:Ajay Salvesen tweeted out an interesting stat. The Aggies are 27-0 over the last two years when Diogo Brito scores in double figures.
I think that kind of goes to the point of the OP, we need more than Merrill, Queta and Bean to consistently win games. Diogo seems to be an x-factor this season and gives us both outside shooting and driving capabilities when he is playing well. When he is off, he is just as bad as Miller from 3 and a potential turnover machine(see Boise).


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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by aggies22 » February 13th, 2020, 12:09 pm

scotlandog wrote:
February 13th, 2020, 12:04 pm
aggies22 wrote:Ajay Salvesen tweeted out an interesting stat. The Aggies are 27-0 over the last two years when Diogo Brito scores in double figures.
I think that kind of goes to the point of the OP, we need more than Merrill, Queta and Bean to consistently win games. Diogo seems to be an x-factor this season and gives us both outside shooting and driving capabilities when he is playing well. When he is off, he is just as bad as Miller from 3 and a potential turnover machine(see Boise).


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Precisely. I just thought it would be an interesting point to hammer home the original post.
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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by Real Life Aggie » February 13th, 2020, 12:13 pm

aggies22 wrote:
February 13th, 2020, 11:53 am
Ajay Salvesen tweeted out an interesting stat. The Aggies are 27-0 over the last two years when Diogo Brito scores in double figures.
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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by aggies22 » February 13th, 2020, 12:16 pm

Real Life Aggie wrote:
February 13th, 2020, 12:13 pm
aggies22 wrote:
February 13th, 2020, 11:53 am
Ajay Salvesen tweeted out an interesting stat. The Aggies are 27-0 over the last two years when Diogo Brito scores in double figures.
Image
Literally made me laugh out loud at my desk!
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Re: Can we win with only three productive players?

Post by ChicAggie » February 13th, 2020, 12:32 pm

Brito and Anderson are the X-Factors. Really interesting stat, and Brito's regression since the first 10 games of the season has certainly been a big factor in our losses since then (combined with Miller averaging 1.4 makes on 5.6 attempts from beyond the arc in conference play and sub-par play from Porter).


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