Negative Contribution By Players Outside Top Three

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Negative Contribution By Players Outside Top Three

Post by ChicAggie » January 20th, 2020, 10:54 am

In conference play, eight Aggies have averaged 10+ MPG: Merrill (37.7), Miller (31.4), Bean (30.0), Porter (29.6), Brito (26.3), Queta (22.2), Anderson (16.0), and Bairstow (10.9). Unfortunately, only Merrill, Bean, and Queta have been positive contributors for the Aggies, while the other five have been downright awful. It is difficult to win when a team has only three contributing players who average fewer than 30 minutes per game each. The top three holes on the team (Miller, Porter, and Brito) have averaged virtually exactly the same minutes (29.1 MPG) as the contributors (29.9 MPG). WHEN IS KUBA COMING BACK!? WE NEED HIM!

Here are some of the advanced statistics I believe show most clearly which players are contributing to wins/losses:

* True Shooting Percentage (TS% shows which players are scoring efficiently - college average is around .550)

* Net Rating (NetRtg estimates how many net points per 100 possessions a team outscores an opponent by or is outscored by an opponent due to an individual player's contributions on both the offensive and defensive ends of the court - a positive number is good; a negative number is bad)

* Win/Shares per 40 (WS/40 estimates the level of contribution each player makes to a team win going beyond points, rebounds and oth­er tra­di­tion­al stats, paint­ing a more com­plete pic­ture of that player’s contributions - average is approximately .100)

* Player Efficiency Rating (PER sums up all a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player's performance - 15.0 is average; below 10 is pathetic)

* Box Plus/Minus (BPM is a box score-based metric for evaluating basketball players' quality and contribution to the team -- unfortunately this number is available only for the entire season, and not just for conference play - so the numbers for Brito, Anderson, Porter, and Miller will all be somewhat inflated as their play was on average better before conference play)

Positive contributors (stats are conference play only - except BPM which is available only for the entire season):

Player.....TS%........NetRtg.......WS/40.........PER.......BPM
Merrill.... .557........4.2............ .127.............18.3.......5.8
Bean..... .558........27.4.......... .202.............27.0.......11.3
Queta.... .651.........14.3......... .180..............26.7.......5.5

Epic fails (stats are conference play only - except BPM which is available only for the entire season)

Player..............TS%........NetRtg.......WS/40..........PER.......BPM
Miller.............. .440.........-25.3......... .002..............5.6.........1.2
Porter............. .477.........-8.5........... .055..............9.7.........1.7
Brito............... .365.........-21.2......... .014.............9.0..........4.7
Anderson....... .369........-30.2......... -.023.............4.7..........3.4
Bairstow........ .638........-24.2.......... .005..............6.5.........-1.40
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Re: Negative Contribution By Players Outside Top Three

Post by Mr. Sneelock » January 20th, 2020, 12:00 pm

These stats confirm what my eyes have been telling me. Those NetRtg numbers are absolutely horrendous. And Anderson's numbers...... Ouch.

We only have 1 player (Queta) whose TS% is above average. Most guys are way below average.


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Re: Negative Contribution By Players Outside Top Three

Post by TrueAG » January 20th, 2020, 12:11 pm

This does not surprise me. I am actually shocked we have done as well as we have with the injuries and lack of talent.



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Re: Negative Contribution By Players Outside Top Three

Post by Intermeddler » January 20th, 2020, 2:21 pm

Good info

The TS% from Miller and Brito is just brutal. Whenever someone refers to Miller as a shooter I’m reminded of the Jerry Sloan quote about having a shooting guard but he needs a making guard.
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Re: Negative Contribution By Players Outside Top Three

Post by Aglicious » January 20th, 2020, 5:00 pm

I wonder how much our coaching staff is into these advanced stats? I have to believe most coaching staffs these days are well aware and look at them often, but I wonder how many let the stats influence or dictate the personnel they have on the court?

I think they are a good tool to understand trends but sometimes they are skewed because of limited playing time, or because of the strength of the opponent faced when the stats were being accrued, or the game situation that bench players are coming into. Perhaps the game is a blowout and they are being asked to do nothing more than manage it to the end. All that playing time is accrued but perhaps not the meaningful game stats that would influence the advanced numbers.

I wonder this because we just watched a guy in RayJ Dennis that probably had horrid advanced stats prior to this game come in and basically win a game for his team single-handed. Prior to this game the dude was 7/36 on 3PT shooting (19.4%) on the season! :shock: That is far worse than our guards that we have ripped all season. So why can't a guy like Anderson or Bairstow that have better 3PT% than that possibly turn a game around for the Aggies? I think we can all agree they can't do much with their butts glued to a seat or appearing for a possession or two when the game is already lost. I just hope the coaches don't look at the advanced stats in a bubble and start to realize with their own eyeballs who is doing what in actual game play.



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Re: Negative Contribution By Players Outside Top Three

Post by Rabidchild » January 20th, 2020, 6:43 pm

Great topic - and excellent post, thanks for presenting all of this data.

I'm not surprised at how bad Anderson's numbers have been, but I am not surprised as he has looked like a completely different player since the new year. He looked so good early in the season and we would not have beaten MSU or LSU without his big shots and great play. His confidence is nonexistent. Does anyone know what is going on with him?

The biggest difference from last year to this seems to be that Brito and Miller are both huge negatives, whereas they both routinely hit big shots and played a much more positive role last season. Were their metrics significantly higher last year?


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Re: Negative Contribution By Players Outside Top Three

Post by spud » January 20th, 2020, 8:17 pm

No wonder I like Justin Bean so Much!!!!



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Re: Negative Contribution By Players Outside Top Three

Post by AggiesForever » January 21st, 2020, 9:55 am

Intermeddler wrote:
January 20th, 2020, 2:21 pm
Whenever someone refers to Miller as a shooter I’m reminded of the Jerry Sloan quote about having a shooting guard but he needs a making guard.
Boy, amen to that . . . .
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Re: Negative Contribution By Players Outside Top Three

Post by AggieFBObsession » January 21st, 2020, 10:08 am

Mr. Sneelock wrote:
January 20th, 2020, 12:00 pm
These stats confirm what my eyes have been telling me. Those NetRtg numbers are absolutely horrendous. And Anderson's numbers...... Ouch.

We only have 1 player (Queta) whose TS% is above average. Most guys are way below average.
Again, Anderson's numbers are not good, but he's playing out of position. HE IS NOT A PF or C!

The win shares tell the true story. We can't afford to bench Brito or Porter right now due to bad shooting. They are contributing in other ways which help. Unfortunately, we don't have better options than them right now.

I'll leave the rest of what I want to say for your imagination. Mom told me that when you don't have something positive to say, say nothing at all.



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Re: Negative Contribution By Players Outside Top Three

Post by ChicAggie » January 21st, 2020, 10:31 am

Aglicious wrote:
January 20th, 2020, 5:00 pm
I wonder how much our coaching staff is into these advanced stats? I have to believe most coaching staffs these days are well aware and look at them often, but I wonder how many let the stats influence or dictate the personnel they have on the court?
Some coaches definitely rely heavily on advanced statistical analyses to help guide -- if not dictate -- personnel decisions. For example, Jazz coach Quin Snyder relies heavily on advanced stats in setting lineups and making other personnel decisions, and many of the most successful franchises in the NBA rely HEAVILY on advanced statistical analyses. I've never heard this topic discussed with Smith, but it seems like he is not one of those coaches who fully embraces advanced statistics. For example, the advanced statistics told those of us who were paying attention to them that Bean should be getting more playing time last season long before he moved into a greater role. And that Ainge should be getting NO playing time long before he was benched.
Aglicious wrote:
January 20th, 2020, 5:00 pm
I think they are a good tool to understand trends but sometimes they are skewed because of limited playing time, or because of the strength of the opponent faced when the stats were being accrued, or the game situation that bench players are coming into. Perhaps the game is a blowout and they are being asked to do nothing more than manage it to the end. All that playing time is accrued but perhaps not the meaningful game stats that would influence the advanced numbers.
Certainly statistics must be read in context. So, for example, it is not entirely clear how Bairstow's numbers might change with more playing time. In contrast, Porter, Brito, Miller, and Anderson have had SIGNIFICANT playing time, so it is difficult to discount what the advanced statistics tell us about their impact on wins and losses -- and it ain't pretty. Brito is such an enigma since he has looked SO good at times. Not sure if injuries are hampering his play or if it is something else. Miller and Porter, in contrast, have not looked particularly good for two seasons (Porter had his moments last season, but he mainly looked good in contrast to Ainge's awfulness).

Not sure about your Rayj observation. He was moved into a starting role for the three games prior to the Aggie game and looked actually pretty good against SDSU. Players like Rayj can be streaky: poor overall for most of the season, but good for a few games here and there. See, for example, Brock Miller. Brock looked great against Eastern Oregon and Denver this season, but awful against Fresno St., SDSU, and Boise St. -- and mediocre in about 12 other games. Last season he was great against New Mexico (on the road), Fresno St., CSU, MVS, and a few other teams, but terrible against Wyoming, Irvine, New Mexico (at home), Northern Iowa, etc. As fans, we all hope the good games will be confidence and performance sparks for the rest of a career, but I'm beginning to give up hope on Miller, Porter, and now Brito. Anderson is still a bit of a mystery to me ....


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Re: Negative Contribution By Players Outside Top Three

Post by ChicAggie » January 21st, 2020, 10:38 am

AggieFBObsession wrote:
January 21st, 2020, 10:08 am
The win shares tell the true story. We can't afford to bench Brito or Porter right now due to bad shooting. They are contributing in other ways which help. Unfortunately, we don't have better options than them right now.
You might be right regarding not having better options, but outside Merrill, Bean, and Queta, the Aggies' win shares are WELL below average. To maintain a winning season, your starters should be above average (.100). See, for example, SDSU: their top 11 players are all above average: their 11th best player is at .117 WS/40. In contrast, for conference play, Porter is at .055, Brito is at .014, Bairstow is at .005, Miller is at .002, and Anderson is actually negative at -.024. Not sure what the Ags can do, but certainly getting Kuba some minutes (his advanced stats are all extremely solid) and seeing what Bairstow can do with more PT seem like potential options.
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Re: Negative Contribution By Players Outside Top Three

Post by ShowMeAggie » January 21st, 2020, 11:17 am

ChicAggie wrote:
January 21st, 2020, 10:38 am
AggieFBObsession wrote:
January 21st, 2020, 10:08 am
The win shares tell the true story. We can't afford to bench Brito or Porter right now due to bad shooting. They are contributing in other ways which help. Unfortunately, we don't have better options than them right now.
You might be right regarding not having better options, but outside Merrill, Bean, and Queta, the Aggies' win shares are WELL below average. To maintain a winning season, your starters should be above average (.100). See, for example, SDSU: their top 11 players are all above average: their 11th best player is at .117 WS/40. In contrast, for conference play, Porter is at .055, Brito is at .014, Bairstow is at .005, Miller is at .002, and Anderson is actually negative at -.024. Not sure what the Ags can do, but certainly getting Kuba some minutes (his advanced stats are all extremely solid) and seeing what Bairstow can do with more PT seem like potential options.
TO be fair, though...the SDSU stats for WS/40 you cite above are for all games. USU's stats don't look that different with all games considered:

Image



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Re: Negative Contribution By Players Outside Top Three

Post by ChicAggie » January 21st, 2020, 3:09 pm

ShowMeAggie wrote:
January 21st, 2020, 11:17 am
TO be fair, though...the SDSU stats for WS/40 you cite above are for all games. USU's stats don't look that different with all games considered:
Image
You're right, I should have compared apples-to-apples, but looking at USU's entire season isn't focusing on what's happening now: a couple of key players who looked good early (Brito and Anderson) have been playing terrible in conference.

So comparing apples-to-apples, SDSU's top 9 players in conference play only are at .117 WS/40 or better; the top 11 are all better than Porter; and the top 12 are all better than Brito, Bairstow, Miller, and Anderson. You need that type of performance to have a winning team. Four of our top seven players in total minutes just aren't cutting it right now.
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Re: Negative Contribution By Players Outside Top Three

Post by jpswensen » January 21st, 2020, 3:19 pm

I don't need any advanced metrics to tell me how bad they are playing. Just straight up shooting percentages during conference play tell almost the entire story.

Miller 8-37 3PT (21.6%) over 220 minutes played.
Brito 6-36 3PT (16.7%) over 184 minutes played.

The fact that Miller is averaging 31.4 minutes a game is the thing that absolutely blow my mind. If we really have no better option, and I trust coach, then that is a sad, sad state of affairs.


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Re: Negative Contribution By Players Outside Top Three

Post by Roy McAvoy » January 21st, 2020, 3:40 pm

Brito's play since the St. Katherine game has reached epically bad levels, including being 5-38 from the 3 point line in the past 9 games.



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Re: Negative Contribution By Players Outside Top Three

Post by 2004AG » January 21st, 2020, 5:22 pm

jpswensen wrote:
January 21st, 2020, 3:19 pm
I don't need any advanced metrics to tell me how bad they are playing. Just straight up shooting percentages during conference play tell almost the entire story.

Miller 8-37 3PT (21.6%) over 220 minutes played.
Brito 6-36 3PT (16.7%) over 184 minutes played.

The fact that Miller is averaging 31.4 minutes a game is the thing that absolutely blow my mind. If we really have no better option, and I trust coach, then that is a sad, sad state of affairs.
At this point, just try someone else. Bairstow couldn't possibly be worse, and I know Anderson doesn't have any better numbers, but he doesn't play as much as Miller either.

And at some point that has to fall on Smith a little. He's had two recruiting classes to recruit over Miller, Brito and Porter but hasn't.



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Re: Negative Contribution By Players Outside Top Three

Post by ususports » January 22nd, 2020, 1:51 am

2004AG wrote:
January 21st, 2020, 5:22 pm
At this point, just try someone else. Bairstow couldn't possibly be worse
Turns out, he can be worse. Tonight was not a good game for Bairstow.



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