Regressing to the mean

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rAggie
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Regressing to the mean

Post by rAggie » January 18th, 2020, 11:27 pm

This applies to both basketball and football.

Last year was so, so good.

This year is so not good.

We are simply regressing to the average of what USU athletics is capable of being, I'm scared to say.
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Re: Regressing to the mean

Post by coolag » January 18th, 2020, 11:27 pm

Choo choo.



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Re: Regressing to the mean

Post by ThunderAggie » January 18th, 2020, 11:28 pm

It could be worse. We are 14-6 in basketball and were 7-6 in football. In addition we have a potential 1st round QB and a potential NBA draft pick. Just saying it could be worse...



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Re: Regressing to the mean

Post by Aggie84025 » January 18th, 2020, 11:30 pm

ThunderAggie wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:28 pm
It could be worse. We are 14-6 in basketball and were 7-6 in football. In addition we have a potential 1st round QB and a potential NBA draft pick. Just saying it could be worse...
It could be a lot worse other than the melt down tonight.
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Re: Regressing to the mean

Post by rAggie » January 18th, 2020, 11:30 pm

ThunderAggie wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:28 pm
It could be worse. We are 14-6 in basketball and were 7-6 in football. In addition we have a potential 1st round QB and a potential NBA draft pick. Just saying it could be worse...
Yup. We need to be thankful for the highlights when they come and enjoy them.

Unless we get another $5-10 million injected in the budget (which would largely need to come from donations, ticket sales, and corporate sponsors) I think our average is around 7.5 wins a year in football and 20-22 wins a year in basketball.



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Re: Regressing to the mean

Post by bluegrouse » January 18th, 2020, 11:32 pm

ThunderAggie wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:28 pm
It could be worse. We are 14-6 in basketball and were 7-6 in football. In addition we have a potential 1st round QB and a potential NBA draft pick. Just saying it could be worse...
Actually, tonight couldn’t possibly be worse. Worst meltdown I’ve ever witnessed and that’s really saying something as a lifelong Aggie fan.



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Re: Regressing to the mean

Post by rAggie » January 18th, 2020, 11:34 pm

bluegrouse wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:32 pm
ThunderAggie wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:28 pm
It could be worse. We are 14-6 in basketball and were 7-6 in football. In addition we have a potential 1st round QB and a potential NBA draft pick. Just saying it could be worse...
Actually, tonight couldn’t possibly be worse. Worst meltdown I’ve ever witnessed and that’s really saying something as a lifelong Aggie fan.
Tonight was historically bad. That it comes after extremely concerning losses against UNLV and Air Force causes a lot of anxiety. The only thing we can do is see how the team responds this week against Air Force.

I don't want to pile on because these are young men and we should never attack the student athlete. What I can say though is I have a choice in how to spend my time, and I'm going to learn a lot on Tuesday based on how this team that A) just had the biggest choke job in school history and B ) has a chance at redemption against a team that destroyed them two weeks ago, handles things.
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Re: Regressing to the mean

Post by Aggiewest » January 18th, 2020, 11:39 pm

rAggie wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:34 pm
bluegrouse wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:32 pm
ThunderAggie wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:28 pm
It could be worse. We are 14-6 in basketball and were 7-6 in football. In addition we have a potential 1st round QB and a potential NBA draft pick. Just saying it could be worse...
Actually, tonight couldn’t possibly be worse. Worst meltdown I’ve ever witnessed and that’s really saying something as a lifelong Aggie fan.
Tonight was historically bad. That it comes after extremely concerning losses against UNLV and Air Force causes a lot of anxiety. The only thing we can do is see how the team responds this week against Air Force.

I don't want to pile on because these are young men and we should never attack the student athlete. What I can say though is I have a choice in how to spend my time, and I'm going to learn a lot on Tuesday based on how this team that A) just had the biggest choke job in school history and B ) has a chance at redemption against a team that destroyed them two weeks ago, handles things.
If we continue to see the same guys get minutes I'm not wasting any more time on this team.
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Re: Regressing to the mean

Post by 2004AG » January 18th, 2020, 11:42 pm

Aggiewest wrote:
rAggie wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:34 pm
bluegrouse wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:32 pm
ThunderAggie wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:28 pm
It could be worse. We are 14-6 in basketball and were 7-6 in football. In addition we have a potential 1st round QB and a potential NBA draft pick. Just saying it could be worse...
Actually, tonight couldn’t possibly be worse. Worst meltdown I’ve ever witnessed and that’s really saying something as a lifelong Aggie fan.
Tonight was historically bad. That it comes after extremely concerning losses against UNLV and Air Force causes a lot of anxiety. The only thing we can do is see how the team responds this week against Air Force.

I don't want to pile on because these are young men and we should never attack the student athlete. What I can say though is I have a choice in how to spend my time, and I'm going to learn a lot on Tuesday based on how this team that A) just had the biggest choke job in school history and B ) has a chance at redemption against a team that destroyed them two weeks ago, handles things.
If we continue to see the same guys get minutes I'm not wasting any more time on this team.
I’ve seen nothing that would give me hope that Smith won’t trot out the same 5 guys. Miller and Brito aren’t going anywhere and Smith refused to recruit over Porter last off season.

I know, I know, Smith knows more about coaching basketball than we do. Blah blah blah.


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Re: Regressing to the mean

Post by rAggie » January 18th, 2020, 11:45 pm

2004AG wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:42 pm

I’ve seen nothing that would give me hope that Smith won’t trot out the same 5 guys. Miller and Brito aren’t going anywhere and Smith refused to recruit over Porter last off season.

I know, I know, Smith knows more about coaching basketball than we do. Blah blah blah.


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To be fair, he did recruit two point guards, it just so happens neither is playing. He definitely rolled the dice by erring on the side of "not upsetting team chemistry" though.

Good news for Porter haters though is he won't be back next year.



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Re: Regressing to the mean

Post by 2004AG » January 18th, 2020, 11:47 pm

rAggie wrote:
2004AG wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:42 pm

I’ve seen nothing that would give me hope that Smith won’t trot out the same 5 guys. Miller and Brito aren’t going anywhere and Smith refused to recruit over Porter last off season.

I know, I know, Smith knows more about coaching basketball than we do. Blah blah blah.


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To be fair, he did recruit two point guards, it just so happens neither is playing. He definitely rolled the dice by erring on the side of "not upsetting team chemistry" though.

Good news for Porter haters though is he won't be back next year.
The ironic thing is our team chemistry is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy off right now.


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Re: Regressing to the mean

Post by Aggie84025 » January 18th, 2020, 11:49 pm

rAggie wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:34 pm
bluegrouse wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:32 pm
ThunderAggie wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:28 pm
It could be worse. We are 14-6 in basketball and were 7-6 in football. In addition we have a potential 1st round QB and a potential NBA draft pick. Just saying it could be worse...
Actually, tonight couldn’t possibly be worse. Worst meltdown I’ve ever witnessed and that’s really saying something as a lifelong Aggie fan.
Tonight was historically bad. That it comes after extremely concerning losses against UNLV and Air Force causes a lot of anxiety. The only thing we can do is see how the team responds this week against Air Force.

I don't want to pile on because these are young men and we should never attack the student athlete. What I can say though is I have a choice in how to spend my time, and I'm going to learn a lot on Tuesday based on how this team that A) just had the biggest choke job in school history and B ) has a chance at redemption against a team that destroyed them two weeks ago, handles things.
Me too, be interesting to see how they come out on Tuesday. That will be a tough game. They throttled us last time and then after the debacle tonight I have no clue what team shows up. To be honest nothing would surprise me, I could see us dominate by 20, but also be dominated.



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Re: Regressing to the mean

Post by Elkaggie » January 18th, 2020, 11:51 pm

2004AG wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:47 pm
rAggie wrote:
2004AG wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:42 pm

I’ve seen nothing that would give me hope that Smith won’t trot out the same 5 guys. Miller and Brito aren’t going anywhere and Smith refused to recruit over Porter last off season.

I know, I know, Smith knows more about coaching basketball than we do. Blah blah blah.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
To be fair, he did recruit two point guards, it just so happens neither is playing. He definitely rolled the dice by erring on the side of "not upsetting team chemistry" though.

Good news for Porter haters though is he won't be back next year.
The ironic thing is our team chemistry is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy off right now.


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I think you might be joking but our chemistry was fine tonight. Even at the end.



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Re: Regressing to the mean

Post by 2004AG » January 18th, 2020, 11:53 pm

Elkaggie wrote:
2004AG wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:47 pm
rAggie wrote:
2004AG wrote:
January 18th, 2020, 11:42 pm

I’ve seen nothing that would give me hope that Smith won’t trot out the same 5 guys. Miller and Brito aren’t going anywhere and Smith refused to recruit over Porter last off season.

I know, I know, Smith knows more about coaching basketball than we do. Blah blah blah.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
To be fair, he did recruit two point guards, it just so happens neither is playing. He definitely rolled the dice by erring on the side of "not upsetting team chemistry" though.

Good news for Porter haters though is he won't be back next year.
The ironic thing is our team chemistry is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy off right now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I think you might be joking but our chemistry was fine tonight. Even at the end.
Something just seems off with this team. I don’t know what it is.


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Re: Regressing to the mean

Post by MarioWest » January 19th, 2020, 6:45 am

Personally, I think the apparent chemistry issues are basketball-fit related. Bean is a better player than Taylor in a vacuum, but Taylor was a better fit with Queta.

When two of your three best players are bigs that don’t shoot, you’re going to have to do some line-up gymnastics. Here’s hoping Smith can figure it out.



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Re: Regressing to the mean

Post by ineptimusprime » January 19th, 2020, 8:37 am

MarioWest wrote:
January 19th, 2020, 6:45 am
Personally, I think the apparent chemistry issues are basketball-fit related. Bean is a better player than Taylor in a vacuum, but Taylor was a better fit with Queta.

When two of your three best players are bigs that don’t shoot, you’re going to have to do some line-up gymnastics. Here’s hoping Smith can figure it out.
Bingo. Bean and Queta should rarely, if ever, share the floor due to spacing issues. But they are our second and third best players, so it’s tough.

I was hoping McChesney could provide three point shooting from the 4, but he seriously looks like a holocaust victim. Guy needs to spend every day pounding protein and lifting weights if he ever wants to play D1 basketball. He looks like he needs to gain about 30 pounds to weigh as much as Brandon Ingram.



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Re: Regressing to the mean

Post by Aggie84025 » January 19th, 2020, 8:51 am

We should limit the amount of 3's that bean shoots. He hit his first but the other 2 werw not close. Having him shoot 3's is not a recipe for success.



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Re: Regressing to the mean

Post by 2004AG » January 19th, 2020, 8:58 am

MarioWest wrote:Personally, I think the apparent chemistry issues are basketball-fit related. Bean is a better player than Taylor in a vacuum, but Taylor was a better fit with Queta.

When two of your three best players are bigs that don’t shoot, you’re going to have to do some line-up gymnastics. Here’s hoping Smith can figure it out.
Good point. Combine that with zero perimeter game outside of Merrill and it’s a highly flawed team.


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Re: Regressing to the mean

Post by ususports » January 19th, 2020, 9:55 am

Aggie84025 wrote:
January 19th, 2020, 8:51 am
We should limit the amount of 3's that bean shoots. He hit his first but the other 2 werw not close. Having him shoot 3's is not a recipe for success.
Amen! I cringe every time he shoots a three, and for good reason, he is 3 for 13 on the year. If that isn’t a reason enough to tell him to stop shooting threes, I don’t know what is.
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