A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

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ChicAggie
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A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by ChicAggie » January 7th, 2020, 9:00 am

One of the biggest differences between this year's team and last year's was that last year's team did a much better job of shooting the ball. This year's team is nearly 6% below last year's team in TS%, which is arguably the best measure of how efficient a player (or team) is scoring as the metric takes into account 2PAs, 3PAs, and FTAs. I have not found definitive data on this, but I believe the average TS% in college basketball is roughly .550.

While Merrill's 3P% is up a notch from last season (.400 vs. .377), his 2P% is WAY down (from .534 to .429), and his TS% is also down significantly from .616 to .577. Teams are definitely keying on him and making it much more difficult for him to get off good shots -- which might also explain why his FGAs per game are also down (from 14.1 to 12.7).

Miller's FGAs are up significantly from 7.5 to 9.4, but his TS% has dropped from a mediocre .519 to a fairly abysmal .502 (ahead of only Brito at .493 and Stall at .362), and his 3P% has dropped from a marginally acceptable .354 to a well-below-average .309 -- and he is taking the third most shots on the team.

Speaking of Brito, what has happened to his shooting? He has the 4th most FGAs on the team, and yet his TS% is dead last on the team (unless you include Stall). Brito went from shooting a solid .396 from beyond the arc last season to a putrid .274 this season, and his TS% has plummeted from .567 to .493.

Between the two, Miller and Brito have taken nearly 30% of all of the Aggies' shots this season. So we have two of our four highest volume shooters taking a significant percentage of the team's shots and scoring at FAR below average efficiency. Volume shooting at a low TS% is not a recipe for success. We need more opportunities for Queta (.678 on 5.0 FGA), Karwowski (.601 on 2.7 FGA), and Anderson (.584 on 7.7 FGA), and fewer for Miller and Brito until they can fix their shooting problems.

A few NBA teams have brought in "shot doctors" to correct minor problems in shooting form with often fairly impressive results. Could this Aggie team benefit from bringing in a shot doctor for the rest of the season? I'd be happy to contribute to a fund to help pay for one . . . .
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Re: A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by Aggie19 » January 7th, 2020, 9:31 am

ChicAggie wrote:
January 7th, 2020, 9:00 am
One of the biggest differences between this year's team and last year's was that last year's team did a much better job of shooting the ball. This year's team is nearly 6% below last year's team in TS%, which is arguably the best measure of how efficient a player (or team) is scoring as the metric takes into account 2PAs, 3PAs, and FTAs. I have not found definitive data on this, but I believe the average TS% in college basketball is roughly .550.

While Merrill's 3P% is up a notch from last season (.400 vs. .377), his 2P% is WAY down (from .534 to .429), and his TS% is also down significantly from .616 to .577. Teams are definitely keying on him and making it much more difficult for him to get off good shots -- which might also explain why his FGAs per game are also down (from 14.1 to 12.7).

Miller's FGAs are up significantly from 7.5 to 9.4, but his TS% has dropped from a mediocre .519 to a fairly abysmal .502 (ahead of only Brito at .493 and Stall at .362), and his 3P% has dropped from a marginally acceptable .354 to a well-below-average .309 -- and he is taking the third most shots on the team.

Speaking of Brito, what has happened to his shooting? He has the 4th most FGAs on the team, and yet his TS% is dead last on the team (unless you include Stall). Brito went from shooting a solid .396 from beyond the arc last season to a putrid .274 this season, and his TS% has plummeted from .567 to .493.

Between the two, Miller and Brito have taken nearly 30% of all of the Aggies' shots this season. So we have two of our four highest volume shooters taking a significant percentage of the team's shots and scoring at FAR below average efficiency. Volume shooting at a low TS% is not a recipe for success. We need more opportunities for Queta (.678 on 5.0 FGA), Karwowski (.601 on 2.7 FGA), and Anderson (.584 on 7.7 FGA), and fewer for Miller and Brito until they can fix their shooting problems.

A few NBA teams have brought in "shot doctors" to correct minor problems in shooting form with often fairly impressive results. Could this Aggie team benefit from bringing in a shot doctor for the rest of the season? I'd be happy to contribute to a fund to help pay for one . . . .
Great research!

Maybe we should get that guy off of 'The Natural'. "Losing is like gonorrhea....." :)


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Re: A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by agster » January 7th, 2020, 9:45 am

Have the shot doctor fix Bean's hitch on his jump shot.



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Re: A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by Aglicious » January 7th, 2020, 9:46 am

Good info. ChicAggie! This is further evidence that Anderson should see more PT. This was talked about in the other thread but I feel like his involvement and production is key to this team's success. He's a skilled scorer, especially with his back to the basket. There has got to be a way to get Queta, Anderson, and Bean on the court at the same time.



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Re: A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by Aglicious » January 7th, 2020, 9:47 am

agster wrote:
January 7th, 2020, 9:45 am
Have the shot doctor fix Bean's hitch on his jump shot.
:lol: That thing is so ugly it may require an entire trauma response team.



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Re: A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by aggiesdotcom » January 7th, 2020, 11:08 am

ChicAggie wrote:
January 7th, 2020, 9:00 am

Speaking of Brito, what has happened to his shooting? He has the 4th most FGAs on the team, and yet his TS% is dead last on the team (unless you include Stall). Brito went from shooting a solid .396 from beyond the arc last season to a putrid .274 this season, and his TS% has plummeted from .567 to .493.

Is Stall even on the team still?



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Re: A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by hipsterdoofus21 » January 7th, 2020, 11:57 am

I’m sorry I don’t have any availability.



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Re: A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by bpd » January 7th, 2020, 1:28 pm

The original post is spot on. Our struggles come down to Brito and Miller. Miller has struggled all year. Brito was good in the beginning, but has really struggled since the St. Mary's game. The one exception was Florida, which we won. Since the St. Mary's game, Brito is shooting 18% from 3.



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Re: A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by TheAKAggie » January 7th, 2020, 1:51 pm

I gotcha, what do you need Lemondrops? Duck Farts? Alabama Slammer? Kamikazee? Slippery nipple? Melon ball? Woo Woo? Lemme know.


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Re: A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by tipitup » January 7th, 2020, 2:08 pm

what is TS%? sorry i don't know



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Re: A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by ShowMeAggie » January 7th, 2020, 2:28 pm

tipitup wrote:
January 7th, 2020, 2:08 pm
what is TS%? sorry i don't know
True Shooting Percentage.
It's an advanced statistic meant to capture a shooter's (or team's) effectiveness in shooting the ball. It takes into account 2 and 3 point shot attempts as well as free throws.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/True_shooting_percentage



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Re: A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by sl7hk » January 7th, 2020, 2:45 pm

aggiesdotcom wrote:
January 7th, 2020, 11:08 am


Is Stall even on the team still?
I was wondering the same thing after UNLV but he was with the team vs SDSU



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Re: A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by aceofspadeskb » January 7th, 2020, 3:37 pm

I don't think it's the complete issue, but I can't imagine that shooting is unaffected by playing in pain, which many of our players are right now. We need to somehow get healthy.



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A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by lcrasmus » January 7th, 2020, 3:48 pm

Queta opens up a floor. He hasn't drawn a double team more than once or twice this season yet. He played all season for us last year and it affects shooting.

We don't have many players who can create their own shot of the dribble, and that's what many have been asked to do you this point in the season.

Once teams have to dedicate a second defender to him in the post you'll watch our shooting numbers go up.

Let the full team get back into form.


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Re: A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by scotlandog » January 7th, 2020, 5:25 pm

lcrasmus wrote:Queta opens up a floor. He hasn't drawn a double team more than once or twice this season yet. He played all season for us last year and it affects shooting.

We don't have many players who can create their own shot of the dribble, and that's what many have been asked to do you this point in the season.

Once teams have to dedicate a second defender to him in the post you'll watch our shooting numbers go up.

Let the full team get back into form.


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I agree with this premise in general but this doesn’t account for wide open misses that we are currently getting from the offensive sets. We are not always taking contested shots, especially Miller and Brito. For the most part, these 2 are wide open as a result of the defense over-playing on Merrill. They are rarely taking shots from deep that aren’t absolutely wide open. This is something else. Maybe the pain for Brito is a reason. Maybe it’s tired legs. It’s more though than the other team and their defense.


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Re: A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by Aggiesbleedblue » January 7th, 2020, 5:37 pm

It’s time to take the training wheels off Bairstow and play him over miller. His ability to get to the basket and create for teammates can open up the offense. The sample size is so large now I just don’t think we can expect Brock to snap out of the shooting slump. He is who he is. Play the guy who helps you do more than miss shots
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Re: A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by TheAKAggie » January 7th, 2020, 6:15 pm

sl7hk wrote:
aggiesdotcom wrote:
January 7th, 2020, 11:08 am


Is Stall even on the team still?
I was wondering the same thing after UNLV but he was with the team vs SDSU
He was in street clothes and limping around at the SDSU game.


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Re: A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by GUS » January 7th, 2020, 8:40 pm

I've heard stories of the ol slump buster used in baseball. Could try that, except for all the rm's on the team.



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Re: A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by Aggie19 » January 7th, 2020, 8:53 pm

GUS wrote:
January 7th, 2020, 8:40 pm
I've heard stories of the ol slump buster used in baseball. Could try that, except for all the rm's on the team.
Alright, I'll take one for the team, boys. My only request is that you remember me fondly. Now someone point me in the direction of Ms. Buster. It's time to WIN!!!


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Re: A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by Aggie19 » January 7th, 2020, 10:38 pm

Maybe we're the slump buster. Losses to UNLV and its looking like AF, says maybe we are.


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Re: A Shot Doctor May Cure Ags' Shooting Woes

Post by Real Life Aggie » January 8th, 2020, 8:48 am

Did Miller and Brito get married in the off-season?



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