Handicapping the MW 2019/20

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bpd
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Handicapping the MW 2019/20

Post by bpd » July 15th, 2019, 2:40 pm

The Mountain West is back!

A lot of people think that Utah State is the clear favorite in the MW, I don't. I think they are the favorite, but I don't think they are the clear cut favorite. A lot of things went the Aggies way last year, this year the conference is better and has a lot more depth. Wins will be much more difficult to come by. I feel like there is not a ton of separation between 1-7 of the following.

1. Utah State-They should be better this year as they only lost 2 players that played and only one starter. The returners should hopefully improve and the newcomers are highly thought of. I think the key to this team is Brock Miller. He really needs to improve. He is a good jump shooter who is limited on defense. He will always be limited because of his lack of athletic ability especially on defense. But he needs to improve his ball handling skills and driving to the basket. If he can do this, the sky is the limit. He needs to be a threat going to the basket. I would also like Porter to be more of a scoring threat.

Starters:
1. Porter
2. Merrill
3. Miller
4. Anderson
5. Queta

I think Anderson will get the start at the 4 and provide much needed athleticism. I think Bean off the bench is a better fit for him.
Key bench players: Brito, Bean, Groof, Bairstow

Biggest Question: How does he keep players happy and who does not get playing time. There is a lot of talent, but only 5 can play at a time.

2. New Mexico- New Mexico was garbage last year, but there is a big difference. They have a point, which they didn't have last year. And he is good. Ja'Quan Lyles. He is legit and transferred from Ohio State. They return almost everybody else except Matthis. They have Carlton Bragg and Vance Jackson. You could argue they have the most talent in the league. They have also recruited very well.

Question: How good of a coach is Paul Weir?

3. Boise State- They lost some role role player, front court players, but return everybody who is good. Jessop and Alston are legit and come back. They get two real good transfers who might have to sit out the first semester in Akot from Arizona and Kigab from Oregon. They will have talent and expect to make the tournament.

Question: Can they survive the first semester without their two transfers and is their frontcourt strong enough.

4.Nevada- A lot of people are down on Nevada and think they lost everybody. I think they might have the best backcourt in the conference is Lyndsey Drew and Jazz Johnson. They also have really talented players at the 3 and 4 in Jalen Harris and Eric Parrish.

Question: Do they have enough depth and how good of a coach is Steve Alford?

5. UNLV- UNLV has suffered through bad coaching for the last few years, but has probably had the most talent in the league. While they lost some talent, they also kept some of it, recruited very well, and now have a real coach. They are going to be dangerous.

Question: Depth

6. SDSU- A lot of people like them, I don't. They lost some key players including McDaniels and their backcourt. However they have two good transfers coming in Malachai Flynn from Washington St and KJ Feagin. They also return Matt Mitchell and Mensah. My bottom line, I don't think they have a good coach. They also always seem to melt down in December before turning it on in January.

Question: Coaching

7 CSU- They had some transfers and lost JD Paige to graduation. They return possibly the best center in the league in Carvacho who played with a torn rotater cuff last year. They were really young last year and played 3 freshmen a lot. They were really good on offense last year and bad on defense. They have recruited well and could surprise this year.

Question: Defense and defense.

8. Fresno- Meh, don't like them. They had huge losses with Huggins and Taylor. They get a new transfer, but I think the losses are too much for them

9. Air Force- Wasn't bad last year and they return everybody. They should give some teams some Ls in the Springs. The problem is that it is really hard to recruit to Air Force.

10. Wyoming- They were terrible last year and lost Justin James to the NBA.

11. San Jose- Um..



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Re: Handicapping the MW 2019/20

Post by mcaggie1 » July 15th, 2019, 3:00 pm

Question. If you were building a team around one of two players, whom would you choose........
Queta or Carvacho?



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Re: Handicapping the MW 2019/20

Post by bpd » July 15th, 2019, 3:59 pm

Probably Queta because he has more upside and is better on defense. That said, Carvacho is a better player right now.



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Re: Handicapping the MW 2019/20

Post by SectionBAggie » July 15th, 2019, 9:34 pm

Since I married a Lobo, I have followed UNM closely through the years. Their fan board is pretty much universally concerned about their lack of depth in the bigs. They claim to have two - having recently announced that the European kid, Vlad, is gone. Jackson can be a solid 4 - who can stretch the floor so that they can play a 4-out lineup but injury or fouls to either/both of the bigs and their season changes dramatically.

They are laying hope in the fact that (in their eyes) there are only two quality bigs in the conference - Carvacho and Queta.

They could finish very high, but there is thin ice in the front court.



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Re: Handicapping the MW 2019/20

Post by bpd » July 16th, 2019, 11:24 pm

UNM has a top 100 center coming in. They will be fine.



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Re: Handicapping the MW 2019/20

Post by SectionBAggie » July 17th, 2019, 3:37 pm

bpd wrote:
July 16th, 2019, 11:24 pm
UNM has a top 100 center coming in. They will be fine.
There is some angst on their board about whether January will qualify. If he does they will be fine. If he doesn’t...

I have seen no information about what any qualifying issues would be.



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Re: Handicapping the MW 2019/20

Post by hipsterdoofus21 » July 18th, 2019, 9:19 am

I'm confused about the knock on Miller's defense. I thought I remember reading it was Miller's defense that made him a starter at the beginning of the season last year. I know he's white and a shooter, and inherently that lowers a guy a few rungs on the perceived athleticism and defensive ladder, but I never felt like he was getting blown by.



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Re: Handicapping the MW 2019/20

Post by Chupamedia » July 18th, 2019, 9:58 am

hipsterdoofus21 wrote:I'm confused about the knock on Miller's defense. I thought I remember reading it was Miller's defense that made him a starter at the beginning of the season last year. I know he's white and a shooter, and inherently that lowers a guy a few rungs on the perceived athleticism and defensive ladder, but I never felt like he was getting blown by.
Agreed - his defense got better throughout the year. I felt like he moved well laterally and always was able to keep his man in front of him. I don’t recall a game where his man really hurt us. I thought that part of the post was off base



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Re: Handicapping the MW 2019/20

Post by ChicAggie » July 18th, 2019, 12:40 pm

Chupamedia wrote:
July 18th, 2019, 9:58 am
hipsterdoofus21 wrote:I'm confused about the knock on Miller's defense. I thought I remember reading it was Miller's defense that made him a starter at the beginning of the season last year. I know he's white and a shooter, and inherently that lowers a guy a few rungs on the perceived athleticism and defensive ladder, but I never felt like he was getting blown by.
Agreed - his defense got better throughout the year. I felt like he moved well laterally and always was able to keep his man in front of him. I don’t recall a game where his man really hurt us. I thought that part of the post was off base
Part of the perception might be rooted in the fact that while Miller had the 5th best ORtg on the team (110.3) (behind Merrill, Bean, Taylor, Queta), he had the worst DRtg on the team (104.0). Defense is 90% effort, so if Miller can buy into Smith's vision at the defensive end, I'm hoping to see a nice jump in his defensive efficiency.


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Re: Handicapping the MW 2019/20

Post by Aggie in Boise » July 18th, 2019, 1:00 pm

hipsterdoofus21 wrote:
July 18th, 2019, 9:19 am
I'm confused about the knock on Miller's defense. I thought I remember reading it was Miller's defense that made him a starter at the beginning of the season last year. I know he's white and a shooter, and inherently that lowers a guy a few rungs on the perceived athleticism and defensive ladder, but I never felt like he was getting blown by.
Sam Merrill is white and a great shooter too and maybe even a tad bit less athletic than Miller but his D is great. I think Miller's defense could be better but I don't recall it being bad.



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Re: Handicapping the MW 2019/20

Post by nswaggie » July 18th, 2019, 5:40 pm

hipsterdoofus21 wrote:
July 18th, 2019, 9:19 am
I'm confused about the knock on Miller's defense. I thought I remember reading it was Miller's defense that made him a starter at the beginning of the season last year. I know he's white and a shooter, and inherently that lowers a guy a few rungs on the perceived athleticism and defensive ladder, but I never felt like he was getting blown by.
IMO Miller’s biggest defensive weakness is being physical and holding his ground on the rare occasions he gets posted up or backed down. I think he didn’t often get backed down or posted up because Quetta was looming. Having a rim protector is a nice luxury.

IMO the OP is correct in Miller offensive gave improvements needed, but I am also hoping his 3 pt shooting will go to the next level as well.

Just based on our position depth I would say Porter’s improvement is more critical than Miller’s. There are guys on the roster that will steal Millers minutes if he hasn’t improved. Not sure it is as straight forward for Porter’s minutes, we need him to be good more than we need Miller to be good.



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Re: Handicapping the MW 2019/20

Post by dyedblue » July 18th, 2019, 6:25 pm

nswaggie wrote:
hipsterdoofus21 wrote:
July 18th, 2019, 9:19 am
I'm confused about the knock on Miller's defense. I thought I remember reading it was Miller's defense that made him a starter at the beginning of the season last year. I know he's white and a shooter, and inherently that lowers a guy a few rungs on the perceived athleticism and defensive ladder, but I never felt like he was getting blown by.
IMO Miller’s biggest defensive weakness is being physical and holding his ground on the rare occasions he gets posted up or backed down. I think he didn’t often get backed down or posted up because Quetta was looming. Having a rim protector is a nice luxury.

IMO the OP is correct in Miller offensive gave improvements needed, but I am also hoping his 3 pt shooting will go to the next level as well.

Just based on our position depth I would say Porter’s improvement is more critical than Miller’s. There are guys on the roster that will steal Millers minutes if he hasn’t improved. Not sure it is as straight forward for Porter’s minutes, we need him to be good more than we need Miller to be good.
Miller has got to show up in the second half of the season. He will lose a lot of minutes if he can't hit a few. Merrill got killed by opposing defenses because we had no threat down the stretch.


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Re: Handicapping the MW 2019/20

Post by mcaggie1 » July 20th, 2019, 12:32 pm

bpd wrote:
July 15th, 2019, 3:59 pm
Probably Queta because he has more upside and is better on defense. That said, Carvacho is a better player right now.
Thank you. You made my point.



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Re: Handicapping the MW 2019/20

Post by bpd » July 20th, 2019, 11:04 pm

mcaggie1 wrote:
July 20th, 2019, 12:32 pm
bpd wrote:
July 15th, 2019, 3:59 pm
Probably Queta because he has more upside and is better on defense. That said, Carvacho is a better player right now.
Thank you. You made my point.
Are you talking about building a team around or winning right now? Two different questions.



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Re: Handicapping the MW 2019/20

Post by AggiesForever » July 22nd, 2019, 8:27 am

I think the biggest hole in Miller's game is that he is exclusively an outside shooter. If he's on, he's dangerous, but if he's not he's useless to us because he doesn't drive to the basket, he doesn't rebound, and he's only a fair defender. If Sean Bairstow is as good as the coaches believe he is, Miller is going to get some serious competition for the starting job at 3. The coaches have said he can play all positions 1-4, so step it up, Brock. Otherwise you may be riding pine.



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Re: Handicapping the MW 2019/20

Post by TheAKAggie » July 22nd, 2019, 9:38 am

bpd wrote:
mcaggie1 wrote:
July 20th, 2019, 12:32 pm
bpd wrote:
July 15th, 2019, 3:59 pm
Probably Queta because he has more upside and is better on defense. That said, Carvacho is a better player right now.
Thank you. You made my point.
Are you talking about building a team around or winning right now? Two different questions.
Queta ate his lunch in Logan. Cavarcho scored 10 on Taylor and 2 on Queta if memory serves. I don’t remember Ft. Collins but I wanna say slight edge Cavarcho.


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Re: Handicapping the MW 2019/20

Post by mcaggie1 » July 22nd, 2019, 9:45 am

bpd wrote:
July 20th, 2019, 11:04 pm
mcaggie1 wrote:
July 20th, 2019, 12:32 pm
bpd wrote:
July 15th, 2019, 3:59 pm
Probably Queta because he has more upside and is better on defense. That said, Carvacho is a better player right now.
Thank you. You made my point.
Are you talking about building a team around or winning right now? Two different questions.
Let me clarify. Who do you want to build your team around now, next week, 6 months from now, a year from now, 5 or more years from now? Does that help?



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Re: Handicapping the MW 2019/20

Post by bpd » July 23rd, 2019, 2:19 pm

TheAKAggie wrote:
July 22nd, 2019, 9:38 am
bpd wrote:
mcaggie1 wrote:
July 20th, 2019, 12:32 pm
bpd wrote:
July 15th, 2019, 3:59 pm
Probably Queta because he has more upside and is better on defense. That said, Carvacho is a better player right now.
Thank you. You made my point.
Are you talking about building a team around or winning right now? Two different questions.
Queta ate his lunch in Logan. Cavarcho scored 10 on Taylor and 2 on Queta if memory serves. I don’t remember Ft. Collins but I wanna say slight edge Cavarcho.


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Queta played 36 minutes and had 12 and 8, Carvacho played 31 minutes because of foul trouble and had 19 and 11. In short, Carvacho returned the favor.
mcaggie1 wrote:
July 22nd, 2019, 9:45 am
bpd wrote:
July 20th, 2019, 11:04 pm
mcaggie1 wrote:
July 20th, 2019, 12:32 pm
bpd wrote:
July 15th, 2019, 3:59 pm
Probably Queta because he has more upside and is better on defense. That said, Carvacho is a better player right now.

Thank you. You made my point.
Are you talking about building a team around or winning right now? Two different questions.
Let me clarify. Who do you want to build your team around now, next week, 6 months from now, a year from now, 5 or more years from now? Does that help?
If I had a win a game today, I would pick Carvacho, 6-10 months I would pick Queta. Hey, I love Queta, but that doesn't mean there are not other good players in the conference. If I recall, Carvacho was 1st team all conference.



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Re: Handicapping the MW 2019/20

Post by SectionBAggie » August 13th, 2019, 5:55 pm

SectionBAggie wrote:
July 17th, 2019, 3:37 pm
bpd wrote:
July 16th, 2019, 11:24 pm
UNM has a top 100 center coming in. They will be fine.
There is some angst on their board about whether January will qualify. If he does they will be fine. If he doesn’t...

I have seen no information about what any qualifying issues would be.
The Lobo board says that January is officially an academic casualty for this coming season. They (The fans) are scrambling to define who will get minutes at 4/5.

Having size on the roster is no guarantee but it is a source of comfort.



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