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Bubble Watch
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Section_L_Aggie
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Bubble Watch
Still a lot of basketball to play but good to see that some think we’re not the worst 22-3 team ever.
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ineptimusprime
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Re: Bubble Watch
With a win on Sunday and wins against AFA and SJSU, I would not be sweating selection Sunday at all no matter what happens in the rest of the games we play. So in that sense, I would feel like we're a "lock" with a win on Sunday barring catastrophe.
Last edited by ineptimusprime on February 12th, 2025, 10:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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AndroidAggie
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Re: Bubble Watch
aggie blue goggles be damned
i can't believe we're not a lock right now.
i can't believe we're not a lock right now.
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ineptimusprime
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Re: Bubble Watch
Honestly, if we otherwise lose out but beat AFA and SJSU (and avoid a Q4 loss in the conference tourney), I'd be sweating Selection Sunday, but still expecting to see our name in a First Four game.AndroidAggie wrote: ↑February 12th, 2025, 10:52 amaggie blue goggles be damned
i can't believe we're not a lock right now.
Last edited by ineptimusprime on February 12th, 2025, 10:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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AgTime
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AggieBlues
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Re: Bubble Watch
Who is saying this? The screen cap doesn't include the source.Section_L_Aggie wrote: ↑February 12th, 2025, 10:36 am
Still a lot of basketball to play but good to see that some think we’re not the worst 22-3 team ever.
The amount of energy necessary to refute bull pucky is an order of magnitude greater than to produce it.
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Section_L_Aggie
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Re: Bubble Watch
It’s on ESPNAggieBlues wrote: ↑February 12th, 2025, 10:56 amWho is saying this? The screen cap doesn't include the source.Section_L_Aggie wrote: ↑February 12th, 2025, 10:36 am
Still a lot of basketball to play but good to see that some think we’re not the worst 22-3 team ever.
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Aggie702
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Re: Bubble Watch
I suppose it depends on your definition of lock.AndroidAggie wrote: ↑February 12th, 2025, 10:52 amaggie blue goggles be damned
i can't believe we're not a lock right now.
I personally take a very strict approach and think a lock means you could lose the rest of your games and still get in. Meaning most/all teams aren't locks until early march as weird stuff can happen.
I think lock for many means win the games you're supposed too and you'll get in. By that definition, I agree we should be a lock.
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QuackAttackAggie
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Re: Bubble Watch
ESPN just published a piece saying they agree with feedback that BPI sucks and they're fixing it so the odds will change the next blog
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AndroidAggie
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Re: Bubble Watch
how dare you meet my fevered love for the aggies with measured and rational thoughtAggie702 wrote: ↑February 12th, 2025, 1:37 pmI suppose it depends on your definition of lock.
I personally take a very strict approach and think a lock means you could lose the rest of your games and still get in. Meaning most/all teams aren't locks until early march as weird stuff can happen.
I think lock for many means win the games you're supposed too and you'll get in. By that definition, I agree we should be a lock.
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QuackAttackAggie
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Re: Bubble Watch
We are up to 91% and UNM is at 89% with the changesQuackAttackAggie wrote: ↑February 12th, 2025, 4:31 pmESPN just published a piece saying they agree with feedback that BPI sucks and they're fixing it so the odds will change the next blog
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AndroidAggie
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Re: Bubble Watch
from the article:QuackAttackAggie wrote: ↑February 12th, 2025, 4:31 pmESPN just published a piece saying they agree with feedback that BPI sucks and they're fixing it so the odds will change the next blog
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https://www.espn.com/mens-college-baske ... redictionsespn wrote: ESPN's Bubble Watch, a projection of the teams vying for bids into the 2025 men's college basketball tournament, launched a little over a week ago, and we heard your feedback about some teams that were too high in ESPN Analytics' BPI forecast (ahem, North Carolina) and others that might not have been receiving odds reflective of their quality wins (see, Louisville).
You'll notice that Wednesday's version of Bubble Watch -- a file we've been updating and will continue to do so from now until Selection Sunday on March 16 -- looks a bit different, with new odds and a few teams that moved into different tiers. Upon further investigation, ESPN Analytics discovered there was an issue within the BPI forecast that affected the way the model was processing each team's chances, including the way it was taking in NET data in order to generate quad wins/losses.
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StanfordAggie
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Re: Bubble Watch
Interesting. That makes a lot of sense. I made a thread when ESPN released its first set of tournament probabilities:AndroidAggie wrote: ↑February 13th, 2025, 2:01 pmfrom the article:QuackAttackAggie wrote: ↑February 12th, 2025, 4:31 pmESPN just published a piece saying they agree with feedback that BPI sucks and they're fixing it so the odds will change the next blog
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https://www.espn.com/mens-college-baske ... redictionsespn wrote: ESPN's Bubble Watch, a projection of the teams vying for bids into the 2025 men's college basketball tournament, launched a little over a week ago, and we heard your feedback about some teams that were too high in ESPN Analytics' BPI forecast (ahem, North Carolina) and others that might not have been receiving odds reflective of their quality wins (see, Louisville).
You'll notice that Wednesday's version of Bubble Watch -- a file we've been updating and will continue to do so from now until Selection Sunday on March 16 -- looks a bit different, with new odds and a few teams that moved into different tiers. Upon further investigation, ESPN Analytics discovered there was an issue within the BPI forecast that affected the way the model was processing each team's chances, including the way it was taking in NET data in order to generate quad wins/losses.
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=75426
I thought it was very weird that they gave USU only a 68% chance of making the tournament while they gave Utah a 29% chance (!?!). Their new numbers look much more reasonable.
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greggers1868
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Re: Bubble Watch
We picked a really bad time to poop the bed in that home game against NM. Game had a lot of hype, and probably the first time that the “national” guys actually watched a USU game instead of just looking at box scores. We definitely did not look like a tourney team that night, and that’s not a great impression. Not saying it’s fair or I agree with it, but that game will have us firmly on the bubble if we don’t go on a tear to end the season, imoAndroidAggie wrote: ↑February 12th, 2025, 10:52 amaggie blue goggles be damned
i can't believe we're not a lock right now.
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StanfordAggie
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Re: Bubble Watch
No. The committee is instructed to weight all games equally and consider a team's full body of work. The team that pooped the bed against New Mexico is the same team that easily beat St. Mary's in their house. USU's resume is already very strong, and one bad game doesn't change that significantly. My guess is that we make the tournament if we avoid any Q4 losses and pick up at least one more Q1/Q2 win. I would probably move USU to "lock" status with two more Q1/Q2 wins (assuming we also avoid any bad losses).greggers1868 wrote: ↑February 13th, 2025, 7:23 pmWe picked a really bad time to poop the bed in that home game against NM. Game had a lot of hype, and probably the first time that the “national” guys actually watched a USU game instead of just looking at box scores. We definitely did not look like a tourney team that night, and that’s not a great impression. Not saying it’s fair or I agree with it, but that game will have us firmly on the bubble if we don’t go on a tear to end the season, imoAndroidAggie wrote: ↑February 12th, 2025, 10:52 amaggie blue goggles be damned
i can't believe we're not a lock right now.
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