More conference changes coming? maybe

mike1126 · Post by **mike1126** » March 6th, 2024, 6:24 pm

A report that the big boys want to get rid of the little boys who don't generate tv revenue.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/ ... f41&ei=295

Yossarian · Post by **Yossarian** » March 6th, 2024, 6:36 pm

I would find it amusing if the SEC and Big 10 powerhouses broke off, signed mega TV deals with the big networks, paid millions in NIL deals, coaches salaries, stadium renovations, etc., and then people stopped caring about watching them. Attendance fell off drastically and TV viewership tanked. That would be amusing to me.

Aggie formerly in Hawaii · Post by **Aggie formerly in Hawaii** » March 6th, 2024, 8:43 pm

Yossarian wrote: ↑
March 6th, 2024, 6:36 pm
I would find it amusing if the SEC and Big 10 powerhouses broke off, signed mega TV deals with the big networks, paid millions in NIL deals, coaches salaries, stadium renovations, etc., and then people stopped caring about watching them. Attendance fell off drastically and TV viewership tanked. That would be amusing to me.

It would be amusing, but southerners will never not care about sec football

NVAggie · Post by **NVAggie** » March 7th, 2024, 8:54 am

I would continue to not watch them.

ViAggie · Post by **ViAggie** » March 7th, 2024, 9:00 am

This is coming and I've been saying it for a long time now, there will be a new division of just 32 teams and it will likely be for FB only, but it's coming. Oh and ybu will NOT be a part of it, sorry lurking cougars. Utah? Maybe but still doubtful.

JSHarvey · Post by **JSHarvey** » March 7th, 2024, 1:52 pm

ViAggie wrote: ↑
March 7th, 2024, 9:00 am
This is coming and I've been saying it for a long time now, there will be a new division of just 32 teams and it will likely be for FB only, but it's coming. Oh and ybu will NOT be a part of it, sorry lurking cougars. Utah? Maybe but still doubtful.

Why 32? I'm guessing two 9 team leagues. Each plays all the teams in their league and four from the other league on a rolling basis. That way they can have just the "cream" and not share anything with hardly anyone else. Or they could play two teams from the other league and pay for a few body bag games.

I just hope we can pay off most of the Athletic Department's debt before everything implodes.

I don't hold out much of any hope long term for USU sports in general or football in particular. I just don't see how we pay the bills long term.

cval · Post by **cval** » March 7th, 2024, 2:00 pm

I think they will still want to pay us to come play them OOC. Just playing each other would mean one of them has to lose every game. Can you imagine the angst of some of those fan bases about a losing record... even if it was to really good teams.

It will end up being unsustainable for that reason alone.

OKAggie · Post by **OKAggie** » March 7th, 2024, 2:13 pm

JSHarvey wrote: ↑
March 7th, 2024, 1:52 pm

ViAggie wrote: ↑
March 7th, 2024, 9:00 am
This is coming and I've been saying it for a long time now, there will be a new division of just 32 teams and it will likely be for FB only, but it's coming. Oh and ybu will NOT be a part of it, sorry lurking cougars. Utah? Maybe but still doubtful.
Why 32? I'm guessing two 9 team leagues. Each plays all the teams in their league and four from the other league on a rolling basis. That way they can have just the "cream" and not share anything with hardly anyone else. Or they could play two teams from the other league and pay for a few body bag games.

I just hope we can pay off most of the Athletic Department's debt before everything implodes.

I don't hold out much of any hope long term for USU sports in general or football in particular. I just don't see how we pay the bills long term.

There's a lot more appetite for CFB programming from the four national networks, the three ESPN channels, the two Fox Sports channels, CBSSN and NBCSN (not to mention streaming and maybe other linear nets like the CW, which took on some CFB this year) than those two nine-team leagues could provide. We're not getting all that much money from the current set-up, and we wouldn't get all that much if that change takes place. Who knows how much it would change?

RogerAndersen · Post by **RogerAndersen** » March 7th, 2024, 5:54 pm

For decades, the truly powerful programs in CFB have been making bank off of slaughtering sacrificial G5 lambs during their conference pre-season schedule.

The power/money disparity of this competition has essentially led me to be less than interested in CFB.

When the top priority/goal is to not lose any major contributors to season-ending injuries, something has to change.

I used to be vehemently opposed to the top 25-40 teams breaking off and doing their own thing. I don't really feel that way now. They already are broken off and doing their own thing.

The disparity in payments, amenities, bennies, NIL, etc. makes it clear.

A defacto tier already exists above MWC programs. They are called the Big 10, Big 12, and SEC.

Yossarian · Post by **Yossarian** » March 7th, 2024, 6:02 pm

RogerAndersen wrote: ↑
March 7th, 2024, 5:54 pm
For decades, the truly powerful programs in CFB have been making bank off of slaughtering sacrificial G5 lambs during their conference pre-season schedule.

The power/money disparity of this competition has essentially led me to be less than interested in CFB.

When the top priority/goal is to not lose any major contributors to season-ending injuries, something has to change.

I used to be vehemently opposed to the top 25-40 teams breaking off and doing their own thing. I don't really feel that way now. They already are broken off and doing their own thing.

The disparity in payments, amenities, bennies, NIL, etc. makes it clear.

A defacto tier already exists above MWC programs. They are called the Big 10, Big 12, and SEC.

About the time when we decided it was a good idea to pay 18 year-olds more money to play a game than tenured university professors, my interest in college sports dropped precipitously. It's about at the level of pro sports, now.

pilotaggie · Post by **pilotaggie** » March 7th, 2024, 7:24 pm

This has been my lurking thought for a while. Its 2 fold.

1 - If they break off I want them completely gone for selfish reasons. Some stated above. Keep injuries from happening in what would amount to meaningless games. I also want to see the what happens to the bottom half of the super league teams when they are continuously going 2- 10 without money bag games to inflate their schedule.

2 - I essentially see it as a semi pro league at that point. I don't think the fans stick around long term. Maybe they do and I'm crazy but to get this done they should be forced out of the NCAA world and I think that would diminish the appeal.

Harcher · Post by **Harcher** » March 7th, 2024, 9:19 pm

Pro football is Uber popular because of the parity model they have. (Wellington Mara of NYG was leader in that arrangement IIRC. The biggest market team….)

Big College football program “owners” I’m sure know that, but have a hard time giving up their current dominance.

But I think it will become 32 teams. Just like NFL. They need multiple time zones. They need a California team to play a Florida team etc, to spread out the interest across the nation.

The U probably makes it to have some various geographic coverage. But they are definitely in the bottom 5 of the list. The Florida State types would be livid if left out, and Fla gators might lobby hard to not let them in.

Ultimately, we probably all agree that separation is coming. The debate or what is not so clear are who are final list of members in the big club.

Coloraggie · Post by **Coloraggie** » March 7th, 2024, 10:38 pm

Harcher wrote: ↑
March 7th, 2024, 9:19 pm
Pro football is Uber popular because of the parity model they have. (Wellington Mara of NYG was leader in that arrangement IIRC. The biggest market team….)

Big College football program “owners” I’m sure know that, but have a hard time giving up their current dominance.

But I think it will become 32 teams. Just like NFL. They need multiple time zones. They need a California team to play a Florida team etc, to spread out the interest across the nation.

The U probably makes it to have some various geographic coverage. But they are definitely in the bottom 5 of the list. The Florida State types would be livid if left out, and Fla gators might lobby hard to not let them in.

Ultimately, we probably all agree that separation is coming. The debate or what is not so clear are who are final list of members in the big club.

If there is only 32 teams there is no way UU gets in. 50 states, not every state gets a team and states like California, Texas, Florida, even Alabama will have multiple teams. I tried this with 64 teams and UU made it but far from the top 32. To say they would make it I'd want to see your list of who else and who gets left out.

RogerAndersen · Post by **RogerAndersen** » March 8th, 2024, 5:57 pm

Based on the current structure and current year revenue data, WSU and OSU would slide over pretty seamlessly to the current upper end of the MWC scale.

That said, of course, some of the adders and benefits of being in P5 conference are soon to evaporate, so the conversation is going to evolve flip a bit.

I'm guessing WSU and OSU suddenly find quite a few peers and programs they feel they have much in common with in the MWC.

But I do agree on the other point, if there is further consolidation UU is not likely in the uppermost tier any more. And neither is BYU... Not in a Top 32 scenario.

It seems more likely that Top tier conferences are going to be the blue bloods of College Football. If you don't have a 70k to 75k stadium and pack it every week, you really need not apply.

Harcher · Post by **Harcher** » March 8th, 2024, 6:50 pm

Coloraggie wrote: ↑
March 7th, 2024, 10:38 pm

Harcher wrote: ↑
March 7th, 2024, 9:19 pm
Pro football is Uber popular because of the parity model they have. (Wellington Mara of NYG was leader in that arrangement IIRC. The biggest market team….)

Big College football program “owners” I’m sure know that, but have a hard time giving up their current dominance.

But I think it will become 32 teams. Just like NFL. They need multiple time zones. They need a California team to play a Florida team etc, to spread out the interest across the nation.

The U probably makes it to have some various geographic coverage. But they are definitely in the bottom 5 of the list. The Florida State types would be livid if left out, and Fla gators might lobby hard to not let them in.

Ultimately, we probably all agree that separation is coming. The debate or what is not so clear are who are final list of members in the big club.
If there is only 32 teams there is no way UU gets in. 50 states, not every state gets a team and states like California, Texas, Florida, even Alabama will have multiple teams. I tried this with 64 teams and UU made it but far from the top 32. To say they would make it I'd want to see your list of who else and who gets left out.

You are right. I think u is bottom of the 64 team list.

I was originally thinking the rift was going to be at the 64 team mark. Now it’s more like 32 teams.

LKGates · Post by **LKGates** » March 9th, 2024, 1:21 pm

The era of growth by addition is almost over. It probably ends when Florida State, and either Notre Dame or Clemson joins the SEC to round out a twenty team conference. After that, the best way to increase per member revenue is growth by subtraction, throwing the low performers overboard. As the article noted, Vanderbilt and Northwestern should be nervous. Some points for consideration.

No conference bigger than 12 teams has ever held together in the long term. A twenty team conference isn't a conference, it's two ten team conferences with a championship agreement. Whether the Big 10 and the SEC formally split into four conferences, or just stay two "conferences" each with two divisions, effectively they're four.

Math. Someone has to lose. At present, the principal value of Vanderbilt and Northwestern to their respective conferences is being the perennial doormat. Teams like South Carolina, Rutgers, Mississippi State, and Purdue are about to become the punching bags. They should temper their enthusiasm for this move. Oh, and if we're looking at a 32 team model, that means that each of those 20 team mega-conferences needs to jettison four teams. Who's sweating now?

A lot of schools that think very highly of themselves are going to have a very rude awakening. BYU, Utah, Boise State, SDSU, are all going to find out that they aren't as special as they thought.

Some very good basketball schools that chronically underperform in football are going to find themselves without a chair when the music stops. Looking at you, Duke.

Life will go on for most programs. FCS schools survive very well without being part of FBS. FBS does VERY well in spite of the existence of the NFL. An unintended consequence for the SEC and B1G may be that people just stop watching them, as fans re-focus on their school and their rivalries. This may also foster the rebirth of regional conferences and rivalries. Who knows, after a few years of standing outside in the cold with their greasy noses pressed against the glass, watching Michigan and Alabama rake in millions of dollars from national championships and New Years Day bowls, maybe the U and the Y will even deign to play us now and then. Now wouldn't that be special...

NavyBlueAggie · Post by **NavyBlueAggie** » March 9th, 2024, 1:45 pm

LKGates wrote: ↑
March 9th, 2024, 1:21 pm
The era of growth by addition is almost over. It probably ends when Florida State, and either Notre Dame or Clemson joins the SEC to round out a twenty team conference. After that, the best way to increase per member revenue is growth by subtraction, throwing the low performers overboard. As the article noted, Vanderbilt and Northwestern should be nervous. Some points for consideration.

No conference bigger than 12 teams has ever held together in the long term. A twenty team conference isn't a conference, it's two ten team conferences with a championship agreement. Whether the Big 10 and the SEC formally split into four conferences, or just stay two "conferences" each with two divisions, effectively they're four.

Math. Someone has to lose. At present, the principal value of Vanderbilt and Northwestern to their respective conferences is being the perennial doormat. Teams like South Carolina, Rutgers, Mississippi State, and Purdue are about to become the punching bags. They should temper their enthusiasm for this move. Oh, and if we're looking at a 32 team model, that means that each of those 20 team mega-conferences needs to jettison four teams. Who's sweating now?

A lot of schools that think very highly of themselves are going to have a very rude awakening. BYU, Utah, Boise State, SDSU, are all going to find out that they aren't as special as they thought.

Some very good basketball schools that chronically underperform in football are going to find themselves without a chair when the music stops. Looking at you, Duke.

Life will go on for most programs. FCS schools survive very well without being part of FBS. FBS does VERY well in spite of the existence of the NFL. An unintended consequence for the SEC and B1G may be that people just stop watching them, as fans re-focus on their school and their rivalries. This may also foster the rebirth of regional conferences and rivalries. Who knows, after a few years of standing outside in the cold with their greasy noses pressed against the glass, watching Michigan and Alabama rake in millions of dollars from national championships and New Years Day bowls, maybe the U and the Y will even deign to play us now and then. Now wouldn't that be special...

I read and re-read your post LK. Impressed with your comments. Every paragraph opens lines for thoughtful consideration. Perhaps we may again enjoy logical, geographical sports rivalries and schedules again, as the big T V dollars turn into bigger legal, structural and management problems.

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