NFL economics part 3

brownjeans · Post by **brownjeans** » January 23rd, 2023, 12:07 am

I've had a couple posts in the past about the economics of the hard cap in the NFL and how a team that over-pays their QB has a very hard time winning the Super Bowl. I previously stated that since the cap was implemented before the 1994/1995 season, only five teams managed to win the Super Bowl when their QB has a cap hit > 13% of the total cap.
49ers - Steve Young
Broncos - John Elway*
Cowboys - Troy Aikman*
Giants - Eli Manning*
Colts - Peyton Manning*

*On further research, Steve Young is the only QB to ever do it. You can use this website https://overthecap.com to view the cap percentage for a given QB. Only Steve Young, in the first year of the cap, has been able to win the Super Bowl with more than a 13% cap hit (13.1%). Every other Super Bowl-winning QB since has only won when earning < 13% of the team's cap. Any superstar QB earning more than that hasn't won it the year they earned that much. It's just too hard to surround them with the talent needed to win it all and the lack of talent has been too hard for even the best QBs to overcome.

Mahomes cap hit this season is 17%. Meaning the Chiefs are a longshot to win the Superbowl. But who knows, maybe he will be able to do what basically no other QB has done.
Looking ahead to next season, don't bet on the following teams to win the Super Bowl unless they change their QB pay situation or the cap gets a big lift: Vikings, Chiefs, Bills, Packers, Titans, Lions, Raiders, Colts, Cowboys, Bucs, and Browns.

AgMac · Post by **AgMac** » January 23rd, 2023, 7:50 pm

I know the Patriots have taken a lot of crap for "disrespecting" Brady by, in part, never paying him top QB money, but nobody understood this principle better than the Pats.

Brady benefitted greatly from this.
He doesn't become the GOAT without always reworking his contract. He understood it. Other QBs are simply not willing to give up the money.

FloridaAggie13 · Post by **FloridaAggie13** » January 24th, 2023, 4:54 am

AgMac wrote: ↑
January 23rd, 2023, 7:50 pm
I know the Patriots have taken a lot of crap for "disrespecting" Brady by, in part, never paying him top QB money, but nobody understood this principle better than the Pats.

Brady benefitted greatly from this.
He doesn't become the GOAT without always reworking his contract. He understood it. Other QBs are simply not willing to give up the money.

They did this across the roster, never overpaying a player just because of his name or status. After all, there is only one ball to go around; better to have three good WR's than a single star WR and two that just fill out the roster at the league minimum.

Belichik was also a master at eyeing good talent meaning he could pick up someone in the second or third round, or later, and get first round production - while paying third round money.

Moneyball.

GameFAQSAggie · Post by **GameFAQSAggie** » January 24th, 2023, 2:45 pm

The Seahawks are another team that was able to surround Wilson with better talent when they were paying him, as well as Bobby, rookie money. As soon as they demanded more money, the gradually lost talent to surround them with. It feels like its now or never for the Bengals to win the Super Bowl, before Burrow is able to demand more money forcing the Bengals to let other talent get away. The same thing will happen with the Bears if Bryce Young is able to become an all-pro, in that it will be easier for them to win paying Bryce rookie money before they lost the people around him if he is a position to demand more.

AggiePT · Post by **AggiePT** » January 24th, 2023, 3:18 pm

GameFAQSAggie wrote: ↑
January 24th, 2023, 2:45 pm
The Seahawks are another team that was able to surround Wilson with better talent when they were paying him, as well as Bobby, rookie money. As soon as they demanded more money, the gradually lost talent to surround them with. It feels like its now or never for the Bengals to win the Super Bowl, before Burrow is able to demand more money forcing the Bengals to let other talent get away. The same thing will happen with the Bears if Bryce Young is able to become an all-pro, in that it will be easier for them to win paying Bryce rookie money before they lost the people around him if he is a position to demand more.

Did I miss the NFL draft again..? Dang. I must be getting old or something.

GameFAQSAggie · Post by **GameFAQSAggie** » January 24th, 2023, 3:20 pm

AggiePT wrote: ↑
January 24th, 2023, 3:18 pm

GameFAQSAggie wrote: ↑
January 24th, 2023, 2:45 pm
The Seahawks are another team that was able to surround Wilson with better talent when they were paying him, as well as Bobby, rookie money. As soon as they demanded more money, the gradually lost talent to surround them with. It feels like its now or never for the Bengals to win the Super Bowl, before Burrow is able to demand more money forcing the Bengals to let other talent get away. The same thing will happen with the Bears if Bryce Young is able to become an all-pro, in that it will be easier for them to win paying Bryce rookie money before they lost the people around him if he is a position to demand more.
Did I miss the NFL draft again..? Dang. I must be getting old or something.

The Bears have the top pick, and the likely top pick is Bryce Young.

brownjeans · Post by **brownjeans** » January 24th, 2023, 9:21 pm

GameFAQSAggie wrote: ↑
January 24th, 2023, 2:45 pm
The Seahawks are another team that was able to surround Wilson with better talent when they were paying him, as well as Bobby, rookie money. As soon as they demanded more money, the gradually lost talent to surround them with. It feels like its now or never for the Bengals to win the Super Bowl, before Burrow is able to demand more money forcing the Bengals to let other talent get away. The same thing will happen with the Bears if Bryce Young is able to become an all-pro, in that it will be easier for them to win paying Bryce rookie money before they lost the people around him if he is a position to demand more.

The Eagles GM seems committed to building a team that makes sense with the NFL economics. It will be interesting to see if he has the nerve to let key players leave if/when they demand the kind of money that cripples how good the team can be.

Intermeddler · Post by **Intermeddler** » January 24th, 2023, 10:13 pm

GameFAQSAggie wrote: ↑
January 24th, 2023, 3:20 pm

AggiePT wrote: ↑
January 24th, 2023, 3:18 pm

GameFAQSAggie wrote: ↑
January 24th, 2023, 2:45 pm
The Seahawks are another team that was able to surround Wilson with better talent when they were paying him, as well as Bobby, rookie money. As soon as they demanded more money, the gradually lost talent to surround them with. It feels like its now or never for the Bengals to win the Super Bowl, before Burrow is able to demand more money forcing the Bengals to let other talent get away. The same thing will happen with the Bears if Bryce Young is able to become an all-pro, in that it will be easier for them to win paying Bryce rookie money before they lost the people around him if he is a position to demand more.
Did I miss the NFL draft again..? Dang. I must be getting old or something.
The Bears have the top pick, and the likely top pick is Bryce Young.

You think they’re trading Fields already huh? Could be. I think a trade down from 1 is more likely.

Slim80 · Post by **Slim80** » January 24th, 2023, 10:30 pm

GameFAQSAggie wrote: ↑
January 24th, 2023, 2:45 pm
The Seahawks are another team that was able to surround Wilson with better talent when they were paying him, as well as Bobby, rookie money. As soon as they demanded more money, the gradually lost talent to surround them with. It feels like its now or never for the Bengals to win the Super Bowl, before Burrow is able to demand more money forcing the Bengals to let other talent get away. The same thing will happen with the Bears if Bryce Young is able to become an all-pro, in that it will be easier for them to win paying Bryce rookie money before they lost the people around him if he is a position to demand more.

Begs the question of, is it better for an NFL team to have an all pro QB and limited talent everywhere else or a serviceable QB and better talent spread across the field?

brownjeans · Post by **brownjeans** » January 25th, 2023, 1:31 am

Slim80 wrote: ↑
January 24th, 2023, 10:30 pm

GameFAQSAggie wrote: ↑
January 24th, 2023, 2:45 pm
The Seahawks are another team that was able to surround Wilson with better talent when they were paying him, as well as Bobby, rookie money. As soon as they demanded more money, the gradually lost talent to surround them with. It feels like its now or never for the Bengals to win the Super Bowl, before Burrow is able to demand more money forcing the Bengals to let other talent get away. The same thing will happen with the Bears if Bryce Young is able to become an all-pro, in that it will be easier for them to win paying Bryce rookie money before they lost the people around him if he is a position to demand more.
Begs the question of, is it better for an NFL team to have an all pro QB and limited talent everywhere else or a serviceable QB and better talent spread across the field?

If you can get that all-pro to take < 13% of the cap, keep the all pro. If not, trade him to a bad team for players and picks.

If you keep the all-pro and pay him > 13% you can forget about winning a Super Bowl.

Post by **aggies22** » January 25th, 2023, 5:56 am

Slim80 wrote: ↑
January 24th, 2023, 10:30 pm

GameFAQSAggie wrote: ↑
January 24th, 2023, 2:45 pm
The Seahawks are another team that was able to surround Wilson with better talent when they were paying him, as well as Bobby, rookie money. As soon as they demanded more money, the gradually lost talent to surround them with. It feels like its now or never for the Bengals to win the Super Bowl, before Burrow is able to demand more money forcing the Bengals to let other talent get away. The same thing will happen with the Bears if Bryce Young is able to become an all-pro, in that it will be easier for them to win paying Bryce rookie money before they lost the people around him if he is a position to demand more.
Begs the question of, is it better for an NFL team to have an all pro QB and limited talent everywhere else or a serviceable QB and better talent spread across the field?

Two words. Trent. Dilfer.

LarryTheAggie · Post by **LarryTheAggie** » January 25th, 2023, 7:42 am

Also, does paying a QB the Max increase the chances of getting in the playoffs? despite making it hard to win the super bowl. I mean does it set a high floor but a low ceilingm Is a really good QB surounded average players enough to be pretty good?

I don't know the answer, and I am too lazy to look it up.

But if that is the case, I can see why Managers do it. As long as you are getting into the playoff you will likely have a job.

El Sapo · Post by **El Sapo** » January 25th, 2023, 11:58 am

Al Davis said that the only constant thing about the draft (and I'd count free agency players) is that your results will be inconsistent.

So, it's always a crap shoot. Trading for Brady can get you a Superbowl win. and it's possible that the last player drafted in 2022 can win one for the Niners

FloridaAggie13 · Post by **FloridaAggie13** » January 25th, 2023, 12:09 pm

El Sapo wrote: ↑
January 25th, 2023, 11:58 am
Al Davis said that the only constant thing about the draft (and I'd count free agency players) is that your results will be inconsistent.

So, it's always a crap shoot. Trading for Brady can get you a Superbowl win. and it's possible that the last player drafted in 2022 can win one for the Niners

Don't forget that sometime in the first ten plays, the opposing quarterback must go down and must go down hard.

Words to live by.

Coloraggie · Post by **Coloraggie** » January 26th, 2023, 3:24 pm

brownjeans wrote: ↑
January 23rd, 2023, 12:07 am
I've had a couple posts in the past about the economics of the hard cap in the NFL and how a team that over-pays their QB has a very hard time winning the Super Bowl. I previously stated that since the cap was implemented before the 1994/1995 season, only five teams managed to win the Super Bowl when their QB has a cap hit > 13% of the total cap.
49ers - Steve Young
Broncos - John Elway*
Cowboys - Troy Aikman*
Giants - Eli Manning*
Colts - Peyton Manning*

*On further research, Steve Young is the only QB to ever do it. You can use this website https://overthecap.com to view the cap percentage for a given QB. Only Steve Young, in the first year of the cap, has been able to win the Super Bowl with more than a 13% cap hit (13.1%). Every other Super Bowl-winning QB since has only won when earning < 13% of the team's cap. Any superstar QB earning more than that hasn't won it the year they earned that much. It's just too hard to surround them with the talent needed to win it all and the lack of talent has been too hard for even the best QBs to overcome.

Mahomes cap hit this season is 17%. Meaning the Chiefs are a longshot to win the Superbowl. But who knows, maybe he will be able to do what basically no other QB has done.
Looking ahead to next season, don't bet on the following teams to win the Super Bowl unless they change their QB pay situation or the cap gets a big lift: Vikings, Chiefs, Bills, Packers, Titans, Lions, Raiders, Colts, Cowboys, Bucs, and Browns.

You left the Broncos off this list. I'm sure Russell Wilson is getting paid more than all those quarterbacks except DeShaun Watson (Browns being the Browns with that signing).

brownjeans · Post by **brownjeans** » January 26th, 2023, 3:56 pm

Coloraggie wrote: ↑
January 26th, 2023, 3:24 pm
You left the Broncos off this list. I'm sure Russell Wilson is getting paid more than all those quarterbacks except DeShaun Watson (Browns being the Browns with that signing).

It really matters how a players salary is distributed in relation to the cap hit.
Wilson's cap hit is only 9.5% of the total cap for the 2023 season. After that it's 13.8, 19.6, and 19.0 (and probably two years after that where we don't know what the cap will be) - so yeah, the Broncos are super screwed, just not next year if Wilson can find a way to not suck.
https://overthecap.com/player/russell-wilson/1569

brownjeans · Post by **brownjeans** » February 12th, 2023, 8:09 pm

Chiefs looking like they will pull off something that's never been done before

ViAggie · Post by **ViAggie** » February 13th, 2023, 10:00 am

WOOT WOOT!

brownjeans · Post by **brownjeans** » February 14th, 2023, 12:26 pm

For fun, here's a list of all super bowl winners since the establishment of the salary cap, the QB and the percent of cap that player consumed:
NFL Season Champion QB QB Cap hit
2022 Chiefs Mahomes 17.0%
2021 Rams Stafford 10.7%
2020 Buccaneers Brady 12.2%
2019 Chiefs Mahomes 2.4%
2018 Patriots Brady 12.2%
2017 Eagles Foles 0.9%
2016 Patriots Brady 8.6%
2015 Broncos P. Manning 11.7%
2014 Patriots Brady 10.6%
2013 Seahawks Wilson 0.5%
2012 Ravens Flacco 6.6%
2011 Giants E. Manning 11.7%
2010 Packers Rodgers 6.0%
2009 Saints Brees 8.7%
2008 Steelers Roethlisberger 6.9%
2007 Giants E. Manning 9.2%
2006 Colts P. Manning 10.4%
2005 Steelers Roethlisberger 4.9%
2004 Patriots Brady 6.3%
2003 Patriots Brady 4.4%
2002 Buccaneers Johnson 1.9%
2001 Patriots Brady 0.5%
2000 Ravens Dilfer 1.6%
1999 Rams Warner 1.3%
1998 Broncos Elway 4.9%
1997 Broncos Elway 5.0%
1996 Packers Favre 10.2%
1995 Cowboys Aikman 6.7%
1994 49ers Young 13.1%

Mahomes pulled off a major outlier this year.

NVAggie · Post by **NVAggie** » February 14th, 2023, 12:30 pm

You can do anything with the help of the NFL.

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