Here is the 2021 data...

https://drive.google.com/file/d/15bUPZo ... sp=sharing

Biggest takeaways for me are:
We are running more this year vs last year on every down.

As GeoAg stated our running was just as ineffective last season. In fact, the last page on the doc shows all running backs last season. Last season 69% of all rushes by Tyler were for 4 or less yards, and 67% of Noa's rushes were for 4 or less yards.

We were able to save drives by throwing when we put ourselves in 2nd and 6 or more.

Getting 5 yards instead of 4 or less is actually insanely valuable. When we get 4 or less yards on a first down rush last year, we punted or turned the ball over on 28.6% of sets of downs. When we got 5 or more we had a punt or turnover on just 3.1%! of those sets of downs. You can see the image for the graph that shows that.

More takeaways:
The differences 2021 -> 2022 -
1st and 10 -

53.1% rush plays -> 59.3% might not seem huge but that is a big increase. This also is a bit understated since the data will say it was a rush if it was a pass play that Peasley ran on. So it was likely closer to a 50-50 run pass split last season (given Peasley play about 3 games worth) and this season is up to 60%
66% -> 65.7% gained 4 or less yards. We were about as equally inefficient which surprised me (at least we did it a smaller percent of time last year)
28.6% -> 65.2% of rushes 4 or less yards ended in a punt or turnover. That is a HUGE difference! Last year we were able to overcome those bad rushing starts to series.
20% -> 54.3% of 1st and ten that started with a rush ended in punt or turnover. Again a huge difference.

Passing 1st and 10
47% -> 40.7% passing on first and 10. Again, the passing number is much lower this year.
53.3% -> 50% of passing plays gained 4 or less yards. A slight decrease in percentage of plays going for 4 or less this season.
30% -> 50% of plays that gain 4 or less passing yards end in a punt
18.3% -> 25% of passing plays on 1st and 10 end in a punt or turnover. Not the huge gain that we see from rushing in 2022.

2nd and 6 or more
2021 – run 37.1%, pass 62.9%
2022 – run 44.4%, pass 55.6%
2nd and 6 or more Run punt/turnover – 2021 30.2%, 2022 68.8%
2nd and 6 or more Pass punt/turnover – 2021 27.4%, 2022 50%

We were WAY more effective with our 2nd and 6 or more chances in 2021. We also tended to pass it more or 2nd and 6 or more last season.

2nd and 5 or less
2021 – run 56.9%, pass 43.1%
2022 – run 89%, pass 11%

We are much more predictable this year in a lot of areas, but especially on 2nd and 5 or less. We have run almost every single time this season in that situation. This year we punt or turnover 38% of 2nd and 5 or less. Last season was 9.8%

In the end I would ask are we making the right reads? They have 5 in the box, but we still get 4 or less way too often. Does that make it still the right read? At the end of the day I think that goes to scheme. You can leave the 5 in the box and tell them stuff the gut and they don't have to even worry if it is a pass or run because the defenders will do the same thing either way. Stuff the gut, look for run up middle if it's a pass move on to qb. We were much more balanced last season (though still ineffective on runs).

aggie4L wrote: ↑

September 22nd, 2022, 10:28 am

Here is the 2021 data...

We are much more predictable this year in a lot of areas, but especially on 2nd and 5 or less. We have run almost every single time this season in that situation. This year we punt or turnover 38% of 2nd and 5 or less. Last season was 9.8%

In the end I would ask are we making the right reads? They have 5 in the box, but we still get 4 or less way too often. Does that make it still the right read? At the end of the day I think that goes to scheme. You can leave the 5 in the box and tell them stuff the gut and they don't have to even worry if it is a pass or run because the defenders will do the same thing either way. Stuff the gut, look for run up middle if it's a pass move on to qb. We were much more balanced last season (though still ineffective on runs).

Weber's defense dictated our offensive plays (run the ball) by showing 5 in the box. And, like you point out they were in full stop the run mode out of that alignment. Expect UNLV to do the same until we adjust.

trevordude wrote: ↑

September 20th, 2022, 5:12 pm

Something coach has pointed out is that when the defense puts less players in the box (near the line of scrimmage), we should be able to run.

I think, especially vs Weber, we had very favorable matchups in the box, but still couldn't run forward significantly.

This may be pushing the numbers up. We call the right play per the defensive weakness, but can't execute. Calling pass plays in these situations may or may not be a solution.

If we can't execute the RIGHT play against the RIGHT defense, then we are in a world of hurt and this is going to be a VERY long season

I keep thinking that coach must be seeing a reason to run, but I guess when you option is to stink like a skunk or stink like rotten meat, no matter what you choose you are still going to stink. I just hope we decide to take a shower some time this year and come out not stinking quite so bad...

SwaggieAggie wrote: ↑

September 20th, 2022, 10:22 pm

Is there any offense out there that would be easier to prepare for as an opposing DC than Utah State’s?

No, there is not. I can see many a defensive coordinator watching the film, laughing, and thinking, "Is this really all they do?"

I hope we don't see Bonner try to do something outside his skillset like scrambling around and trying to run the ball. There is a fix and it doesn't mean Bonner gets pulled from the game. BA could use situational substitution. Bring in Levi on short yardage like we did v UConn

Yes. I am not exactly sure how/why we can go from winning a conference title last year to getting boat-raced by FCS Weber this year...

Do we need to rewind the clock a few months and jump back into hard core conditioning and strength training to get our edge back?

Seemed like we had it last year and now we don't.

I know that is not ideal for mid-season performance, but if we have gotten soft, we have to find a way to bring the "nasty" back.

The reality is that MWC play starts this weekend, and the ONLY thing that really matters what we are going do in this next game and against this next opponent... and then on to the next one and so on...

Nobody is going to pin a medal on us or hand us a trophy based on last year.

The part of this whole thing that doesn't add up for me is seeing what we did in Game 1 compared to what we decided to do in weeks 2 and 3. Against UConn we saw Levi come in for series, or at least a few plays during a drive as a change of pace. We saw a true freshman in Briggs come in early and contribute in a big way. We saw multiple WRs being used at slot. We attempted a couple of play designs with misdirection involved. Maybe it was just the coaches trying out stuff for the 1st time against an opponent they felt comfortable about the chances of winning, I don't know.

All I do know is that we have not done anything like it since that game, even when desperation had set in early against WSU. Why was there suddenly an unwillingness to try something else? Or use personnel that had been successful previously?

Play calling is not the issue, Aglicious. It’s execution. Repeat that over and over, and soon you will believe it too, just like the coaches.

afausu wrote: ↑

September 24th, 2022, 7:34 am

Play calling is not the issue, Aglicious. It’s execution. Repeat that over and over, and soon you will believe it too, just like the coaches.

It’s not a lie if you believe it.

Play calling was better tonight. I'm still in shock they took the field goal off the board in exchange for a first down. Two point conversion and fake punt were nicely executed

hvaggie wrote: ↑

September 24th, 2022, 10:40 pm

Play calling was better tonight. I'm still in shock they took the field goal off the board in exchange for a first down. Two point conversion and fake punt were nicely executed

Play calling was better tonight. Still some head scratchers, but for sure improved over the other games.

Still too many runs up the middle on first down

GUS wrote: ↑

September 25th, 2022, 12:15 am

Still too many runs up the middle on first down

Ya, at one point the announcer on CBSSN - or maybe Turbin- said "USU really needs to attack the edges". It was coming out of a commercial break. Then first down they ran Tyler JR off tackle and he got like 5-7 yards. The announcer said - They finally attack the edge and get some good yardage on first down.