FPI & SP+ Season Predictions

AGGIEinIOWA · Post by **AGGIEinIOWA** » May 31st, 2022, 10:54 am

Looks like ESPN's FPI prediction has us at 8-4 with losses to Alabama, BYU, AF, and Boise.
https://mwwire.com/2022/05/31/espns-fpi ... ll-record/

SP+ was not so bullish on the Aggies and predicted 6-6 with the same losses as ESPN but also losing to CSU and Wyo.
https://mwwire.com/2022/04/07/sp-predic ... -schedule/

6-6 is too low for this team. 8-4 is much more likely in my opinion with a decent chance of surpassing that. I think we have a realistic chance of finishing the MW at 7-1, which could get us back to the championship game. I also think the BYU game is not a likely win but not out of the question with maybe 30-35% chance of bringing the Ol' Wagon Wheel home for the foreseeable future. What think you?

JSHarvey · Post by **JSHarvey** » May 31st, 2022, 11:16 am

I think we bring the Wagon Wheel back to Logan, and have a ten win regular season. This time of year I can't get my Aggie Blue Goggles off.

AGGIEinIOWA · Post by **AGGIEinIOWA** » May 31st, 2022, 11:53 am

JSHarvey wrote:I think we bring the Wagon Wheel back to Logan, and have a ten win regular season. This time of year I can't get my Aggie Blue Goggles off.

I do think had we played the Kitties at the end of last season, we would have beat them by more than a TD.

dirtnsnow · Post by **dirtnsnow** » May 31st, 2022, 12:00 pm

Last season was awesome, but 4 of the games could have easily gone the other way (Washington State, AF, UNLV, CSU). I'm glad they didn't, but if they had, then we would've finished 5-7 without a bowl game. Given that, I can see where these predictions are coming from. What they discount, though, is the improvement as the season went on. If we can start out near the level were attained at the end of the season, I would say 8-4 is our floor (assuming in season improvements). If we start out at the same level as we started last season, then a few bounces the other way could put bowl eligibility in jeopardy.

ViAggie · Post by **ViAggie** » May 31st, 2022, 12:04 pm

How did those predictions turn out last year? Well, we already know.

3rdGenAggie · Post by **3rdGenAggie** » May 31st, 2022, 12:44 pm

Here are my uneducated guesses with my percentages of the Aggies winning:

UConn - 75% (would be 85 or 90, but anything can happen in a first game)
Alabama - 1% (not gonna happen)
Weber State - 90% (FCS opponent)
UNLV - 70% (We've had their number, no reason to believe that won't continue)
BYU - 20% (Maybe I'm pessimistic, but fact is they're better than we are most years, and it's in Provo.)
Air Force - 55% (they swing quite a bit...will they be up or down?)
Colorado State - 60% (we're 6-5 against them in the MWC, counting 2020 as an L because it would have been.)
Wyoming - 60% (it's in Laramie but they had major turnover. They're an unknown quantity at this point.)
New Mexico - 80% (they perpetually stink, so until they prove otherwise...)
Hawaii - 65% (Yes, it's on the islands, but they weren't very good last year and had some coaching drama in the off season.)
San Jose State - 80% (It's SJSU. They have one good season a decade and it already happened in 2020.)
Boise State - 15% (Until we beat them on that horrible field, I won't expect that we will.)

browntown · Post by **browntown** » May 31st, 2022, 12:58 pm

I think this year we have a good chance at a 9-3 tour season. I’m more convinced we can beat the Zoobs because the schedule leading up to it is more favorable than last year. Last season I think we played Air Force and Boise the two games prior to the Zoobs, and it seems like Air Force always attritions the team a bit physically. This year it’s Weber, bye week, then home against UNLV before heading to Provo.
I’m thinking CSU might be a tough game since it follows two difficult games.
Excited to see how the team performs though, I’m pretty optimistic this year.

Madmartigan · Post by **Madmartigan** » May 31st, 2022, 1:19 pm

As our B-Ball team was incredibly unlucky, the reverse was true for our football squad last year. We won every one score game we played in and that doesn't normally happen. This is especially true in games you trail by 10+ in the second half. I think 8 wins is about right with an outside chance of 10+ if we can beat the Zoobs in Provo.

All that said, there is something special about this group of coaches and players and I won't be shocked if they exceed expectations.

pdyebrasil · Post by **pdyebrasil** » May 31st, 2022, 1:25 pm

Don't forget we are also undefeated on the road in the Blake Anderson era

cval · Post by **cval** » May 31st, 2022, 7:21 pm

So, if I understand... If we had lost our close games instead of winning them we would have a losing record, therefore we weren't really very good.

Is that what they are saying?

dirtnsnow · Post by **dirtnsnow** » May 31st, 2022, 8:29 pm

cval wrote: ↑
May 31st, 2022, 7:21 pm
So, if I understand... If we had lost our close games instead of winning them we would have a losing record, therefore we weren't really very good.

Is that what they are saying?

No, I'm saying that we weren't world beaters and got lucky a few times. Better lucky than good, right? But the thing is, luck isn't reliable, so you can't expect the same outcome for every game, let alone every season. You really think other teams will squander a game winning field goal ala CSU? How about gift wrap a goal line stand by bringing in an unproven 3rd string quarterback to replace the QB that was playing pretty well ala WSU? Not saying we weren't good, just that we got some lucky bounces last season.

AggieFBObsession · Post by **AggieFBObsession** » June 1st, 2022, 5:07 am

Madmartigan wrote: ↑
May 31st, 2022, 1:19 pm
As our B-Ball team was incredibly unlucky, the reverse was true for our football squad last year. We won every one score game we played in and that doesn't normally happen. This is especially true in games you trail by 10+ in the second half. I think 8 wins is about right with an outside chance of 10+ if we can beat the Zoobs in Provo.

All that said, there is something special about this group of coaches and players and I won't be shocked if they exceed expectations.

Good teams know how to win games. Winning is not lucky, especially when you do it over and over again. Bad teams know how to lose games. Losing is not unlucky especially when you do it over and over again.

My prediction is that our only loss is to Alabama before we play in the MWC championship. This is the most talented, deepest, Aggie FB team ever with the best coaching staff we've ever had. That's enough for me to be very optimistic.

Madmartigan · Post by **Madmartigan** » June 1st, 2022, 6:56 am

AggieFBObsession wrote: ↑
June 1st, 2022, 5:07 am

Madmartigan wrote: ↑
May 31st, 2022, 1:19 pm
As our B-Ball team was incredibly unlucky, the reverse was true for our football squad last year. We won every one score game we played in and that doesn't normally happen. This is especially true in games you trail by 10+ in the second half. I think 8 wins is about right with an outside chance of 10+ if we can beat the Zoobs in Provo.

All that said, there is something special about this group of coaches and players and I won't be shocked if they exceed expectations.
Good teams know how to win games. Winning is not lucky, especially when you do it over and over again. Bad teams know how to lose games. Losing is not unlucky especially when you do it over and over again.

My prediction is that our only loss is to Alabama before we play in the MWC championship. This is the most talented, deepest, Aggie FB team ever with the best coaching staff we've ever had. That's enough for me to be very optimistic.

Even really good teams get lucky and visa versa. USU was a good football team last year and was also quite fortunate to win a couple of those games. CSU was an especially lucky win, as one example.

Hoot · Post by **Hoot** » June 1st, 2022, 7:38 am

I think we go undefeated and coast through the NCG. No I’m not from Provo why do you ask?

Sl7vk · Post by **Sl7vk** » June 1st, 2022, 7:54 am

I've been saying that SP+ has been garbage for a while now, and I'll stick to that statement.

AGGIEinIOWA · Post by **AGGIEinIOWA** » June 1st, 2022, 9:20 am

AggieFBObsession wrote: ↑
June 1st, 2022, 5:07 am

Madmartigan wrote: ↑
May 31st, 2022, 1:19 pm
As our B-Ball team was incredibly unlucky, the reverse was true for our football squad last year. We won every one score game we played in and that doesn't normally happen. This is especially true in games you trail by 10+ in the second half. I think 8 wins is about right with an outside chance of 10+ if we can beat the Zoobs in Provo.

All that said, there is something special about this group of coaches and players and I won't be shocked if they exceed expectations.
Good teams know how to win games. Winning is not lucky, especially when you do it over and over again. Bad teams know how to lose games. Losing is not unlucky especially when you do it over and over again.

My prediction is that our only loss is to Alabama before we play in the MWC championship. This is the most talented, deepest, Aggie FB team ever with the best coaching staff we've ever had. That's enough for me to be very optimistic.

This team in general is pretty deep on paper, and perhaps looking back after the end of the season we could very well pronounce them the deepest ever, but at this point there are still several position groups that have me nervous. The top 4 groups are probably the deepest we've ever had. The next 2-3 are in good shape as long as we don't lose multiple starters to injury. The last 3-4 groups are either thin or lack experience in my opinion and could spell disaster if we lose a starter. Adding some experience/depth through the portal in the next few weeks would be nice.

QB - 3 guys that could start at a lot of places and an incoming freshman that could eventually end up being just as good.
DE - 4 seasoned and athletic dudes and some young studs in the wings
Safety - 4 starter caliber guys to rotate through 2 positions. We're in good shape here.
WR - We lost a lot from this group but reloaded with some real weapons...and they all want to eat.
OL - Most the two deep have plenty of experience and physical tools. Some great young incoming talent behind them.
DT - Only the top 3 have significant game experience but there are lots of capable young guys behind them.
LB - AJV and Tafisi and Switzer (unless he's out) should be great starters but lots of inexperience behind them. Maile, Moa, and the UCF transfer Cole Joyce should see the field plenty.
RB - Tyler Jr is a bonafide starter but Gentry and Makakona have yet to prove they can step up and be the guy if needed. Briggs is coming in but is young/undersized at this point. A seasoned transfer would help.
TE - We are probably fine here as we'll have Lane back and Sterzer got some experience last year. We have some numbers but really quite inexperienced.
CB - Considering we are moving wide receivers and safeties to fill in here is concerning. Transfer(s) needed.

I didn't include specialists but we are in good shape there. Plenty of capable boots to kick the ball and some playmakers to run it back.

Will Ajani play OLB, CB, or Safety? Good thing the kid is so versatile, especially considering he played WR in high school.

HomeTown · Post by **HomeTown** » June 1st, 2022, 3:30 pm

This year: "The FPI does give out a very precise win and loss totals and they put Utah State at 6.6 wins for this season (2022)...The Aggies are given a 10.3% percent chance to win the division and 4.4% to win the conference."

Last year: "The Aggies have a projected record of 4.7 wins and 7.3 losses next season (2021), according to FPI...The Aggies have a 0.3 percent chance to win the Mountain West Conference in 2021, according to FPI. It also gives Utah State a 2.1 percent chance to win the Mountain Division."

The numbers were even worse last year and I think it turned out alright. Not saying it will happen again, but just that it wouldn't be as much of a stretch this year. They're 15 times better when it comes to chance to win the conference.

slcagg · Post by **slcagg** » June 1st, 2022, 3:42 pm

AGGIEinIOWA wrote: ↑
June 1st, 2022, 9:20 am

AggieFBObsession wrote: ↑
June 1st, 2022, 5:07 am

Madmartigan wrote: ↑
May 31st, 2022, 1:19 pm
As our B-Ball team was incredibly unlucky, the reverse was true for our football squad last year. We won every one score game we played in and that doesn't normally happen. This is especially true in games you trail by 10+ in the second half. I think 8 wins is about right with an outside chance of 10+ if we can beat the Zoobs in Provo.

All that said, there is something special about this group of coaches and players and I won't be shocked if they exceed expectations.
Good teams know how to win games. Winning is not lucky, especially when you do it over and over again. Bad teams know how to lose games. Losing is not unlucky especially when you do it over and over again.

My prediction is that our only loss is to Alabama before we play in the MWC championship. This is the most talented, deepest, Aggie FB team ever with the best coaching staff we've ever had. That's enough for me to be very optimistic.
This team in general is pretty deep on paper, and perhaps looking back after the end of the season we could very well pronounce them the deepest ever, but at this point there are still several position groups that have me nervous. The top 4 groups are probably the deepest we've ever had. The next 2-3 are in good shape as long as we don't lose multiple starters to injury. The last 3-4 groups are either thin or lack experience in my opinion and could spell disaster if we lose a starter. Adding some experience/depth through the portal in the next few weeks would be nice.

QB - 3 guys that could start at a lot of places and an incoming freshman that could eventually end up being just as good.
DE - 4 seasoned and athletic dudes and some young studs in the wings
Safety - 4 starter caliber guys to rotate through 2 positions. We're in good shape here.
WR - We lost a lot from this group but reloaded with some real weapons...and they all want to eat.
OL - Most the two deep have plenty of experience and physical tools. Some great young incoming talent behind them.
DT - Only the top 3 have significant game experience but there are lots of capable young guys behind them.
LB - AJV and Tafisi and Switzer (unless he's out) should be great starters but lots of inexperience behind them. Maile, Moa, and the UCF transfer Cole Joyce should see the field plenty.
RB - Tyler Jr is a bonafide starter but Gentry and Makakona have yet to prove they can step up and be the guy if needed. Briggs is coming in but is young/undersized at this point. A seasoned transfer would help.
TE - We are probably fine here as we'll have Lane back and Sterzer got some experience last year. We have some numbers but really quite inexperienced.
CB - Considering we are moving wide receivers and safeties to fill in here is concerning. Transfer(s) needed.

I didn't include specialists but we are in good shape there. Plenty of capable boots to kick the ball and some playmakers to run it back.

Will Ajani play OLB, CB, or Safety? Good thing the kid is so versatile, especially considering he played WR in high school.

Great write-up. Thank you for that.

I am concerned like you that we have struggled to land a cb or rb. Especially corner.

I love the safety position. I feel we have 3 guys if healthy that are all conference caliber in tatum, gurvan and Reynolds.

AggieFBObsession · Post by **AggieFBObsession** » June 1st, 2022, 8:54 pm

Madmartigan wrote: ↑
June 1st, 2022, 6:56 am
Even really good teams get lucky and visa versa. USU was a good football team last year and was also quite fortunate to win a couple of those games. CSU was an especially lucky win, as one example.

You and I will probably have to agree to disagree. You can always argue for a lot of plays going one way or another, but good teams always know how to find ways to win and vice versa.

AggieFBObsession · Post by **AggieFBObsession** » June 1st, 2022, 8:59 pm

AGGIEinIOWA wrote: ↑
June 1st, 2022, 9:20 am
QB - 3 guys that could start at a lot of places and an incoming freshman that could eventually end up being just as good.
DE - 4 seasoned and athletic dudes and some young studs in the wings
Safety - 4 starter caliber guys to rotate through 2 positions. We're in good shape here.
WR - We lost a lot from this group but reloaded with some real weapons...and they all want to eat.
OL - Most the two deep have plenty of experience and physical tools. Some great young incoming talent behind them.
DT - Only the top 3 have significant game experience but there are lots of capable young guys behind them.
LB - AJV and Tafisi and Switzer (unless he's out) should be great starters but lots of inexperience behind them. Maile, Moa, and the UCF transfer Cole Joyce should see the field plenty.
RB - Tyler Jr is a bonafide starter but Gentry and Makakona have yet to prove they can step up and be the guy if needed. Briggs is coming in but is young/undersized at this point. A seasoned transfer would help.
TE - We are probably fine here as we'll have Lane back and Sterzer got some experience last year. We have some numbers but really quite inexperienced.
CB - Considering we are moving wide receivers and safeties to fill in here is concerning. Transfer(s) needed.

I didn't include specialists but we are in good shape there. Plenty of capable boots to kick the ball and some playmakers to run it back.

Will Ajani play OLB, CB, or Safety? Good thing the kid is so versatile, especially considering he played WR in high school.

As per what others have noted, the only position that really concerns me is CB. I'm not the least bit worried about RB. Yes, we use the RB position often in the running game, but we don't run like Boise or AFA. We pass, pass, pass and pass some more and we don't even use the TE much for that.

A better way to look at the depth in each position is where can we least afford an injury. For me it's CB. You're probably right that an injury to Calvin Tyler Jr would be tough to swallow but it wouldn't be the end of the world for our style of offense. An injury to one of our CBs would be much closer to the end of the world for our pass defense.

You mentioned other positions that lack some experience. While that's true, it's true for nearly every team in America. We're bright enough folks on this board to know there's plenty of talent and even FBS experience in those positions such that it's not like we're relying on a true freshman or RS freshman.

frankiesaysrelax · Post by **frankiesaysrelax** » June 2nd, 2022, 10:57 am

AggieFBObsession wrote: ↑
June 1st, 2022, 8:59 pm

AGGIEinIOWA wrote: ↑
June 1st, 2022, 9:20 am
QB - 3 guys that could start at a lot of places and an incoming freshman that could eventually end up being just as good.
DE - 4 seasoned and athletic dudes and some young studs in the wings
Safety - 4 starter caliber guys to rotate through 2 positions. We're in good shape here.
WR - We lost a lot from this group but reloaded with some real weapons...and they all want to eat.
OL - Most the two deep have plenty of experience and physical tools. Some great young incoming talent behind them.
DT - Only the top 3 have significant game experience but there are lots of capable young guys behind them.
LB - AJV and Tafisi and Switzer (unless he's out) should be great starters but lots of inexperience behind them. Maile, Moa, and the UCF transfer Cole Joyce should see the field plenty.
RB - Tyler Jr is a bonafide starter but Gentry and Makakona have yet to prove they can step up and be the guy if needed. Briggs is coming in but is young/undersized at this point. A seasoned transfer would help.
TE - We are probably fine here as we'll have Lane back and Sterzer got some experience last year. We have some numbers but really quite inexperienced.
CB - Considering we are moving wide receivers and safeties to fill in here is concerning. Transfer(s) needed.

I didn't include specialists but we are in good shape there. Plenty of capable boots to kick the ball and some playmakers to run it back.

Will Ajani play OLB, CB, or Safety? Good thing the kid is so versatile, especially considering he played WR in high school.
As per what others have noted, the only position that really concerns me is CB. I'm not the least bit worried about RB. Yes, we use the RB position often in the running game, but we don't run like Boise or AFA. We pass, pass, pass and pass some more and we don't even use the TE much for that.

A better way to look at the depth in each position is where can we least afford an injury. For me it's CB. You're probably right that an injury to Calvin Tyler Jr would be tough to swallow but it wouldn't be the end of the world for our style of offense. An injury to one of our CBs would be much closer to the end of the world for our pass defense.

You mentioned other positions that lack some experience. While that's true, it's true for nearly every team in America. We're bright enough folks on this board to know there's plenty of talent and even FBS experience in those positions such that it's not like we're relying on a true freshman or RS freshman.

If the ends are good enough we don't need our corners to be All Americans. A really good pass rush makes up for corner deficiencies.

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