Well, apparently neither team this past week could get the running game going anywhere near what was expected. But can we just take a moment and admire my predictions for passing yardage? Don't get me wrong, these predictions are still not very dependable, but when they hit just right it feels pretty nice.

USU - 44.10 (35) (205.18 (98) rush, 356.45 (359) pass, 561.63 (457) total)
NMSU - 26.98 (13) (136.89 (49) rush, 297.63 (298) pass, 434.52 (347) total)

This week we see our rushing offense take quite a hit, going from 12.55% last week down to 3.76% this week. That's a pretty big drop this late in the season! Our passing offense numbers improved slightly, though, while our overall score and yards offense numbers dipped slightly. The big thing I'd like to point out here, though, is continued improvement on defense. None of the categories changed much, but they all changed for the better. That's a couple of good defensive showings in a row, which gives me a lot of hope for continued success to end the season.

The Spartans appear to be a rather tepid team based on these numbers. Their offense is on the weaker side, but not terrible. Their defense is on the better side, but not great. The variation is a bit bigger on the score. That's something that I may some day do more analysis on, looking at turnovers, special teams, redzone offense/defense, etc., to account for the scoring some more. But in all of this we have a big x-factor with Starkel effect. Will having their primary QB back make the difference for them? Will their offense flow better and open up more? Or will Starkel not be up to game speed after missing so much football this season? Feel free to debate below or in a new thread, or whatever.

USU
Score O: 31.8 Avg; 26.4 Opp. D; 5.4 ppg better; 20.60%
Rush O: 153.9 Avg; 148.3 Opp. D; 5.6 ypg better; 3.76%
Pass O: 321.0 Avg; 240.6 Opp. D; 80.4 ypg better; 33.40%
Total O: 474.9 Avg; 388.9 Opp. D; 86.0 ypg better; 22.10%
Score D: 27.2 Avg; 26.3 Opp. O; -1.0 ppg worse; -3.66%
Rush D: 165.6 Avg; 156.0 Opp. O; -9.6 ypg worse; -6.17%
Pass D: 259.8 Avg; 232.4 Opp. O; -27.4 ypg worse; -11.80%
Total D: 425.3 Avg; 388.3 Opp. O; -37.0 ypg worse; -9.52%

SJSU
Score O: 21.4 Avg; 28.6 Opp. D; -7.2 ppg worse; -25.14%
Rush O: 137.0 Avg; 148.9 Opp. D; -11.9 ypg worse; -8.00%
Pass O: 223.8 Avg; 239.2 Opp. D; -15.4 ypg worse; -6.43%
Total O: 360.8 Avg; 388.1 Opp. D; -27.3 ypg worse; -7.03%
Score D: 23.0 Avg; 26.0 Opp. O; 3.0 ppg better; 11.67%
Rush D: 133.7 Avg; 138.7 Opp. O; 5.0 ypg better; 3.59%
Pass D: 222.2 Avg; 242.4 Opp. O; 20.2 ypg better; 8.34%
Total D: 355.9 Avg; 380.8 Opp. O; 24.9 ypg better; 6.54%

And the official BBD BS prediction:
USU - 28.59 (144.10 rush, 301.68 pass, 445.78 total)
SJSU - 21.20 (150.15 rush, 247.82 pass, 397.97 total)


Category Rankings

Score O: USU-3rd; SJSU-11th
Rush O: USU-6th; SJSU-7th
Pass O: USU-3rd; SJSU-7th
Total O: USU-1st; SJSU-9th

Score D: USU-9th; SJSU-7th
Rush D: USU-12th; SJSU-7th
Pass D: USU-12th; SJSU-4th
Total D: USU-12th; SJSU-5th

Overall Rankings (score differential)

1. Boise St (+66.48%)
2. Air Force (+45.71%)
3. SDSU (+39.81%)
4. Nevada (+37.43%)
5. Fresno St (+31.60%)
6. USU (+16.95%)
7. Colorado St (+12.21%)
8. Wyoming (+8.56%)
9. Hawai'i (-10.14%)
10. SJSU (-13.47%)
11. UNLV (-28.21%)
12. New Mexico (-52.06%)

I think starkel being back helps us more than hurts us.

sam tingey wrote: ↑

November 9th, 2021, 12:44 pm

I think starkel being back helps us more than hurts us.

Expound.

sam tingey wrote: ↑

November 9th, 2021, 12:44 pm

I think starkel being back helps us more than hurts us.

Thats a hot take. I'd love to hear more.

BigBlueDart wrote: ↑

November 9th, 2021, 12:57 pm

sam tingey wrote: ↑

November 9th, 2021, 12:44 pm

I think starkel being back helps us more than hurts us.

Expound.

When was the last time he played? Could be stale
Is he now prone to injury?
Can we pressure him into making bad decisions?
Lots of things can happen when your injured QB comes back.

He played against Nevada last week. Didn’t start but played a few series.

Starkel played for probably at least 50% of the offensive plays mabye more. He played pretty well. Be interesting to see how he does getting the rust off after being away for so many games.

Be ineresting to see how Starkel does with his completion %. He is at ~51% on the year and has thrown quite a few picks. He is not super mobile. I would bring a bunch of disguised blitzes to make him uncomfortable and get him off balanced.

BigBlueDart wrote: ↑

November 9th, 2021, 12:57 pm

sam tingey wrote: ↑

November 9th, 2021, 12:44 pm

I think starkel being back helps us more than hurts us.

Expound.

I think his return is more of the Chuckie return, too soon and not all the way healed. He is not performing like he did before his injury and his skillset is now more one dimensional. of course this is my opinion and I am known to be wrong more than right, just ask my wife.

This prediction feels about right to me. And may I say, "From your keyboard to God's monitor!"

LKGates wrote: ↑

November 9th, 2021, 6:36 pm

This prediction feels about right to me. And may I say, "From your keyboard to God's monitor!"

USU78 wrote: ↑

November 10th, 2021, 10:49 am

@BigBlueDart , what's your record this season?

Not sure what his record is, but I have noticed that Oddsshark once again has us losing this weekend. Here's how wrong they've been about us; they had NMSU covering the spread, they had us losing to Hawaii, Colorado State, Washington State, North Dakota (yes even UNT) and AFA. What they got right? 1) UNLV would cover the spread, 2) Boise would beat us, no cover; and 3) ybu would beat us, no cover. How many times can a "legitimate betting site" be wrong about us?

ViAggie wrote: ↑

November 10th, 2021, 11:31 am

USU78 wrote: ↑

November 10th, 2021, 10:49 am

@BigBlueDart , what's your record this season?

Not sure what his record is, but I have noticed that Oddsshark once again has us losing this weekend. Here's how wrong they've been about us; they had NMSU covering the spread, they had us losing to Hawaii, Colorado State, Washington State, North Dakota (yes even UNT) and AFA. What they got right? 1) UNLV would cover the spread, 2) Boise would beat us, no cover; and 3) ybu would beat us, no cover. How many times can a "legitimate betting site" be wrong about us?

I think the only useful thing to look at on oddshark is the public consensus on bets. This week 75 percent think we will cover the spread.

ViAggie wrote: ↑

November 10th, 2021, 11:31 am

USU78 wrote: ↑

November 10th, 2021, 10:49 am

@BigBlueDart , what's your record this season?

Not sure what his record is, but I have noticed that Oddsshark once again has us losing this weekend. Here's how wrong they've been about us; they had NMSU covering the spread, they had us losing to Hawaii, Colorado State, Washington State, North Dakota (yes even UNT) and AFA. What they got right? 1) UNLV would cover the spread, 2) Boise would beat us, no cover; and 3) ybu would beat us, no cover. How many times can a "legitimate betting site" be wrong about us?

So what you are saying is we are in good shape this week for the Aggies to win, I like it.

USU78 wrote: ↑

November 10th, 2021, 10:49 am

@BigBlueDart , what's your record this season?

Here are my score predictions I've made for this season, with results:

USU - 36.66 (3)
Boise St - 36.78 (27)

USU - 27.55 (20)
BYU - 29.77 (34)

USU - 35.78 (28)
UNLV - 24.58 (24)

USU - 24.10 (26)
Colorado St - 29.32 (24)

USU - 34.16 (51)
Hawai'i - 30.85 (31)

USU - 44.10 (35)
NMSU - 26.98 (13)

So, the only game I've technically gotten wrong as far as picking the winner would be Colorado St (although I think I took liberties in the Predict the Score competition for the Boise St game and predicted an Aggie win there). If you want to see how close I am at predicting the spread, though, I'd say I've done kind of poorly, with the NMSU game being my best showing.

BigBlueDart wrote: ↑

November 10th, 2021, 3:01 pm

USU78 wrote: ↑

November 10th, 2021, 10:49 am

@BigBlueDart , what's your record this season?

Here are my score predictions I've made for this season, with results:

USU - 36.66 (3)
Boise St - 36.78 (27)

USU - 27.55 (20)
BYU - 29.77 (34)

USU - 35.78 (28)
UNLV - 24.58 (24)

USU - 24.10 (26)
Colorado St - 29.32 (24)

USU - 34.16 (51)
Hawai'i - 30.85 (31)

USU - 44.10 (35)
NMSU - 26.98 (13)

So, the only game I've technically gotten wrong as far as picking the winner would be Colorado St (although I think I took liberties in the Predict the Score competition for the Boise St game and predicted an Aggie win there). If you want to see how close I am at predicting the spread, though, I'd say I've done kind of poorly, with the NMSU game being my best showing.

And arguably CSU was one of those coulda' shoulda' woulda' type games were it could have gone either way. I know match ups are not very useful, but I like to look at them to see where we stack up when it comes to common opponents. Us and SJSU have 4 common opponents thus far, here are those scores plus the point differentials in all four games (points scored above).

UNLV W 28-24 - SJSU W 27-20 (+5 SJSU)
Hawaii W 51-31 - SJSU W 17-13 (+16 USU)
CSU W 26-24 - SJSU L 32-14 (+20 USU)
NMSU W 35-13 - SJSU W 37-31 (+16 USU)

San Jose is 3-1 vs our 4-0 against the same competition. Jose did better against UNLV than we did, both winning in LV. Jose's one loss was at CSU, and Jose had to play in Hawaii, which made neither of those games easy. But Jose had NMSU at home and let them stay close the whole game. Interestingly, Jose's best game of the season, I think, was their 19-17 OT loss to SDSU. But Jose always plays SD tough, and as I recall beat them last year and damnear beat them the year before that too.

This game should be a good one for us, we'll be playing in nice weather in an environment much like we did last weekend, not too hostile. Jose isn't going to catch us off-guard well maybe in the first half per usual like most games this year, but other than that, we should have another chance to roll this weekend.

I have another stat. We're bad in short yardage situations. 3rd and short? We're hosed. 3rd and long? We convert. Same on 4th and same at the goal line.

Hopefully the OC will play call more aggressively in those situations.

El Sapo wrote: ↑

November 11th, 2021, 4:05 pm

I have another stat. We're bad in short yardage situations. 3rd and short? We're hosed. 3rd and long? We convert. Same on 4th and same at the goal line.

Hopefully the OC will play call more aggressively in those situations.

One more... we're 6-0 vs Joser, lets make it 7-0!

ViAggie wrote:

El Sapo wrote: ↑

November 11th, 2021, 4:05 pm

I have another stat. We're bad in short yardage situations. 3rd and short? We're hosed. 3rd and long? We convert. Same on 4th and same at the goal line.

Hopefully the OC will play call more aggressively in those situations.

One more... we're 6-0 vs Joser, lets make it 7-0!

Going back to Gary 1.0, we are 8-0 vs the Spartans. Longest Aggie win streak in the series, tied the Spartan win streak. Let’s make it 9-0!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

sambonethegreat wrote: ↑

November 11th, 2021, 6:58 pm

ViAggie wrote:

El Sapo wrote: ↑

November 11th, 2021, 4:05 pm

I have another stat. We're bad in short yardage situations. 3rd and short? We're hosed. 3rd and long? We convert. Same on 4th and same at the goal line.

Hopefully the OC will play call more aggressively in those situations.

One more... we're 6-0 vs Joser, lets make it 7-0!

Going back to Gary 1.0, we are 8-0 vs the Spartans. Longest Aggie win streak in the series, tied the Spartan win streak. Let’s make it 9-0!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

We're lucky we didn't play them last year!

BigBlueDart wrote: ↑

November 12th, 2021, 8:57 am

sambonethegreat wrote: ↑

November 11th, 2021, 6:58 pm

ViAggie wrote:

El Sapo wrote: ↑

November 11th, 2021, 4:05 pm

I have another stat. We're bad in short yardage situations. 3rd and short? We're hosed. 3rd and long? We convert. Same on 4th and same at the goal line.

Hopefully the OC will play call more aggressively in those situations.

One more... we're 6-0 vs Joser, lets make it 7-0!

Going back to Gary 1.0, we are 8-0 vs the Spartans. Longest Aggie win streak in the series, tied the Spartan win streak. Let’s make it 9-0!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

We're lucky we didn't play them last year!

Jose did well last year right up until they got beat by a mediocre MAC team in their bowl game.

ViAggie wrote: ↑

November 12th, 2021, 9:19 am

BigBlueDart wrote: ↑

November 12th, 2021, 8:57 am

We're lucky we didn't play them last year!

Jose did well last year right up until they got beat by a mediocre MAC team in their bowl game.

Yeah, I think they were likely slightly worse than their record and perhaps a little lucky in how things played out, but they were still good, and given our condition last year I would not have expected a good result from a game against them.