Ags' Chances at Reaching the CCG

USU78 · Post by **USU78** » October 24th, 2021, 1:57 pm

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/group/17

Mountain Division Odds Right Now:

USU 33.4%
Boazy 12.1%
CSU 4.1%
AFA 4.0%
Wyoming 0.0%
UNM 0.0%

Of course, our odds of winning the CCG are only 8.1% right now, but that's behind only FSU, SDSU, and Reno.

StanfordAggie · Post by **StanfordAggie** » October 24th, 2021, 2:00 pm

I was looking at this myself. ESPN's computer clearly thinks that one of the teams in the West division is in the Mountain Division because otherwise the percentages don't make sense. So our real chances of making the CCG are probably significantly higher than 33.4%. Crazy.

LarryTheAggie · Post by **LarryTheAggie** » October 24th, 2021, 2:08 pm

StanfordAggie wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 2:00 pm
I was looking at this myself. ESPN's computer clearly thinks that one of the teams in the West division is in the Mountain Division because otherwise the percentages don't make sense. So our real chances of making the CCG are probably significantly higher than 33.4%. Crazy.

Yeah. Apparently there is roughly at 46% chance that the Mountian division is so bad that they let two west teams play.

(Doing math in my head so if it is off, don't hate)

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » October 24th, 2021, 2:43 pm

Pretty cool, it sure is exciting. I still can't believe we are in this position. Just need to keep taking one game at a time.

flying_scotsman2.0 · Post by **flying_scotsman2.0** » October 24th, 2021, 2:50 pm

They have Fresno as a member of the mountain division. Just based on how the math looks.

Aggie formerly in Hawaii · Post by **Aggie formerly in Hawaii** » October 24th, 2021, 3:07 pm

We should make it. Beat air force head to head so we are basically 2 games ahead of them since we hold the tiebreaker. Boise already has 2 losses and still plays in Fresno and San Diego. We just beat csu and wyoming isnt good. It is ours for the taking.

ViAggie · Post by **ViAggie** » October 24th, 2021, 3:51 pm

I like those odds!

Roy McAvoy · Post by **Roy McAvoy** » October 24th, 2021, 4:25 pm

I think a 6-2 record would win the division for Usu.

MWCFAN12 · Post by **MWCFAN12** » October 24th, 2021, 5:09 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 4:25 pm
I think a 6-2 record would win the division for Usu.

I think so too.

BSU beats CSU
SDSU beats BSU

USU could then drop one and still win.

Slim80 · Post by **Slim80** » October 24th, 2021, 5:36 pm

MWCFAN12 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:09 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 4:25 pm
I think a 6-2 record would win the division for Usu.
I think so too.

BSU beats CSU
SDSU beats BSU

USU could then drop one and still win.

The boys need to come ready to play against Hawaii. That’s not going to be an easy game.

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » October 24th, 2021, 5:41 pm

Slim80 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:36 pm

MWCFAN12 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:09 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 4:25 pm
I think a 6-2 record would win the division for Usu.
I think so too.

BSU beats CSU
SDSU beats BSU

USU could then drop one and still win.
The boys need to come ready to play against Hawaii. That’s not going to be an easy game.

You are correct, it will not be an easy game. I only watched a little bit of HAW, but they have some play makers on that team. I am encouraged that NMSU put up 34 points last night at HAW. I do think the offense will hopefully be able to score 30+ points.

jeffdan25 · Post by **jeffdan25** » October 24th, 2021, 5:51 pm

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:41 pm

Slim80 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:36 pm

MWCFAN12 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:09 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 4:25 pm
I think a 6-2 record would win the division for Usu.
I think so too.

BSU beats CSU
SDSU beats BSU

USU could then drop one and still win.
The boys need to come ready to play against Hawaii. That’s not going to be an easy game.
You are correct, it will not be an easy game. I only watched a little bit of HAW, but they have some play makers on that team. I am encouraged that NMSU put up 34 points last night at HAW. I do think the offense will hopefully be able to score 30+ points.

Hawaii’s wins are against fcs Portland State who has won three games this year, New Mexico State twice, and Fresno. You might say that Fresno win was big but Fresno coughed up the ball 6 times and had 120 yards in penalties and barely lost. Hawaii is not very good.

Slim80 · Post by **Slim80** » October 24th, 2021, 5:54 pm

jeffdan25 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:51 pm

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:41 pm

Slim80 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:36 pm

MWCFAN12 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:09 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 4:25 pm
I think a 6-2 record would win the division for Usu.
I think so too.

BSU beats CSU
SDSU beats BSU

USU could then drop one and still win.
The boys need to come ready to play against Hawaii. That’s not going to be an easy game.
You are correct, it will not be an easy game. I only watched a little bit of HAW, but they have some play makers on that team. I am encouraged that NMSU put up 34 points last night at HAW. I do think the offense will hopefully be able to score 30+ points.
Hawaii’s wins are against fcs Portland State who has won three games this year, New Mexico State twice, and Fresno. You might say that Fresno win was big but Fresno coughed up the ball 6 times and had 120 yards in penalties and barely lost. Hawaii is not very good.

Neither is UNLV or CSU and we damn near lost those.

I’m thinking the weather might favor us considerably in that game. Freeze the pineapples off the Hawaiians.

tkmad · Post by **tkmad** » October 24th, 2021, 6:26 pm

jeffdan25 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:51 pm

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:41 pm

Slim80 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:36 pm

MWCFAN12 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:09 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 4:25 pm
I think a 6-2 record would win the division for Usu.
I think so too.

BSU beats CSU
SDSU beats BSU

USU could then drop one and still win.
The boys need to come ready to play against Hawaii. That’s not going to be an easy game.
You are correct, it will not be an easy game. I only watched a little bit of HAW, but they have some play makers on that team. I am encouraged that NMSU put up 34 points last night at HAW. I do think the offense will hopefully be able to score 30+ points.
Hawaii’s wins are against fcs Portland State who has won three games this year, New Mexico State twice, and Fresno. You might say that Fresno win was big but Fresno coughed up the ball 6 times and had 120 yards in penalties and barely lost. Hawaii is not very good.

Read "New Mexico State Twice" a few times thinking it was a typo, then went and looked it up to confirm. That's some weird scheduling.

AGGIEinIOWA · Post by **AGGIEinIOWA** » October 24th, 2021, 7:20 pm

This game may turn into a track meet considering how both defenses give up yardage. What’s the over/under on this one?

MaverickAggie · Post by **MaverickAggie** » October 24th, 2021, 8:00 pm

Slim80 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:54 pm

jeffdan25 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:51 pm

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:41 pm

Slim80 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:36 pm

MWCFAN12 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:09 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 4:25 pm
I think a 6-2 record would win the division for Usu.
I think so too.

BSU beats CSU
SDSU beats BSU

USU could then drop one and still win.
The boys need to come ready to play against Hawaii. That’s not going to be an easy game.
You are correct, it will not be an easy game. I only watched a little bit of HAW, but they have some play makers on that team. I am encouraged that NMSU put up 34 points last night at HAW. I do think the offense will hopefully be able to score 30+ points.
Hawaii’s wins are against fcs Portland State who has won three games this year, New Mexico State twice, and Fresno. You might say that Fresno win was big but Fresno coughed up the ball 6 times and had 120 yards in penalties and barely lost. Hawaii is not very good.
Neither is UNLV or CSU and we damn near lost those.

I’m thinking the weather might favor us considerably in that game. Freeze the pineapples off the Hawaiians.

Looks like terrific weather with a 1PM kick. Not to mention, I've sat in Romney thinking insane wind/sleet/snow would slow down the team from Hawaii only to watch them run us over on multiple occasions.

utaggies · Post by **utaggies** » October 24th, 2021, 8:08 pm

Slim80 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:36 pm

MWCFAN12 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:09 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 4:25 pm
I think a 6-2 record would win the division for Usu.
I think so too.

BSU beats CSU
SDSU beats BSU

USU could then drop one and still win.
The boys need to come ready to play against Hawaii. That’s not going to be an easy game.

And exactly which of our games have been easy thus far?

JSHarvey · Post by **JSHarvey** » October 24th, 2021, 8:45 pm

This team squeaks out wins. I think if they rely on that type of luck continuing our chances of making the CCG go to zero fairly quickly. We've got to have the offense consistently scoring touchdowns on most possessions if we are going to make it to the CCG. I think we've got a lot of problems that need to be solved, and that we've been exceptionally lucky so far.

I think we are *capable* of beating Hawaii, but it wouldn't surprise me one bit if we lost the game because the offense fizzled on a critical drive, and the defense let them march down the field (just like they let CSU do on the last three possessions).

Slim80 · Post by **Slim80** » October 24th, 2021, 9:55 pm

utaggies wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 8:08 pm

Slim80 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:36 pm

MWCFAN12 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 5:09 pm

Roy McAvoy wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 4:25 pm
I think a 6-2 record would win the division for Usu.
I think so too.

BSU beats CSU
SDSU beats BSU

USU could then drop one and still win.
The boys need to come ready to play against Hawaii. That’s not going to be an easy game.
And exactly which of our games have been easy thus far?

None! That’s exactly my point. We can’t get too far ahead of ourselves with championship game talk. One week at a time boys, one week at a time.

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » October 24th, 2021, 10:22 pm

JSHarvey wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 8:45 pm
This team squeaks out wins. I think if they rely on that type of luck continuing our chances of making the CCG go to zero fairly quickly. We've got to have the offense consistently scoring touchdowns on most possessions if we are going to make it to the CCG. I think we've got a lot of problems that need to be solved, and that we've been exceptionally lucky so far.

I think we are *capable* of beating Hawaii, but it wouldn't surprise me one bit if we lost the game because the offense fizzled on a critical drive, and the defense let them march down the field (just like they let CSU do on the last three possessions).

Cordeiro their starting QB has missed the last 2 games with an injury. It sounds like he was pretty close to starting against NMSU. If he starts their offense will be improved.

hickaggie · Post by **hickaggie** » October 25th, 2021, 1:16 am

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 10:22 pm

JSHarvey wrote: ↑
October 24th, 2021, 8:45 pm
This team squeaks out wins. I think if they rely on that type of luck continuing our chances of making the CCG go to zero fairly quickly. We've got to have the offense consistently scoring touchdowns on most possessions if we are going to make it to the CCG. I think we've got a lot of problems that need to be solved, and that we've been exceptionally lucky so far.

I think we are *capable* of beating Hawaii, but it wouldn't surprise me one bit if we lost the game because the offense fizzled on a critical drive, and the defense let them march down the field (just like they let CSU do on the last three possessions).
Cordeiro their starting QB has missed the last 2 games with an injury. It sounds like he was pretty close to starting against NMSU. If he starts their offense will be improved.

There are no easy wins for this team. The aggies are so limited on both sides of the ball it's hard to imagine that they can keep it up but they have somehow with some grit and some very unaggie like luck.

As long as Devin Tompkins is healthy though I think they will be in every remaining game late in the 4th.

NVAggie · Post by **NVAggie** » October 25th, 2021, 8:22 am

Every time someone talks about an easy win over someone I just chuckle. There will be no easy wins this year.

AGGIEinIOWA · Post by **AGGIEinIOWA** » October 25th, 2021, 8:31 am

Anyone have a scouting report on the Hawaii O and D lines? We’ve played some pretty formidable Dlines of late and Bonner has been continually under duress. Looking at recent box scores it doesn’t seem the Bows have much of a pass rush. We may pick them apart. On the other side, we may give up another 150 yard rusher.

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