Bah! Bah! BBD Stats! (Week 8, Colorado St)

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BigBlueDart
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Bah! Bah! BBD Stats! (Week 8, Colorado St)

Post by BigBlueDart » October 21st, 2021, 2:11 pm

My prediction for the game last week overshot most of the actual numbers. I undershot on UNLV's rushing yards, but was pretty close on their score.

USU - 35.78 (28) (169.08 (142) rush, 352.32 (298) pass, 521.40 (440) total)
UNLV - 24.58 (24) (162.41 (219) rush, 230.45 (111) pass, 392.86 (330) total)

A quick look at our relative performance shows that we still have a good offense and a poor defense. The trend, however, is that the offensive numbers continue to drop, showing that we are still riding big performances from the first quarter of the season. On defense our rushing D is worse than last week, but our passing D is better. Scoring and total yards performance remains pretty close to the same. So, a poor defense, but not the worst, and not getting any worse. Hopefully we can stop the downward trend on offense and start an upward trend on defense during the second half of our schedule.

For the Rams, there has been some discussion about their defense and how good it really is due to who they've played so far. Well, here's your answer. While the Ram defensive numbers look oppressive, I'd say that they are very solid, but not quite as good as they look at first take. They're quite good at keeping points off the board, as well as run D. The passing D is okay, but not impenetrable. On offense they're pretty good, too, but mostly due to their run game. The passing game looks more or less pedestrian. This could be another game that is very much decided in the trenches. Some have emphasized the passing game, but I think we both need to learn to run the ball more, as well as do a better job stopping the run, in order to get the W.

USU
Score O: 29.0 Avg; 23.9 Opp. D; 5.1 ppg better; 21.24%
Rush O: 169.7 Avg; 146.8 Opp. D; 22.9 ypg better; 15.61%
Pass O: 315.2 Avg; 235.8 Opp. D; 79.3 ypg better; 33.64%
Total O: 484.8 Avg; 382.6 Opp. D; 102.2 ypg better; 26.70%
Score D: 29.5 Avg; 27.3 Opp. O; -2.2 ppg worse; -8.01%
Rush D: 206.5 Avg; 168.7 Opp. O; -37.8 ypg worse; -22.41%
Pass D: 235.0 Avg; 207.8 Opp. O; -27.2 ypg worse; -13.11%
Total D: 441.5 Avg; 376.5 Opp. O; -65.0 ypg worse; -17.27%

Colorado St
Score O: 24.7 Avg; 22.4 Opp. D; 2.3 ppg better; 10.17%
Rush O: 169.3 Avg; 132.0 Opp. D; 37.4 ypg better; 28.31%
Pass O: 227.0 Avg; 218.3 Opp. D; 8.7 ypg better; 3.99%
Total O: 396.3 Avg; 350.3 Opp. D; 46.0 ypg better; 13.14%
Score D: 19.5 Avg; 24.9 Opp. O; 5.4 ppg better; 21.62%
Rush D: 97.8 Avg; 136.8 Opp. O; 39.0 ypg better; 28.49%
Pass D: 187.7 Avg; 208.8 Opp. O; 21.2 ypg better; 10.13%
Total D: 285.5 Avg; 345.6 Opp. O; 60.1 ypg better; 17.39%

And the official BBD BS prediction:
USU - 24.10 (125.73 rush, 280.50 pass, 406.23 total)
CSU - 29.32 (225.48 rush, 248.97 pass, 474.45 total)


Category Rankings

Score O: USU-4th; CSU-7th
Rush O: USU-5th; CSU-3rd
Pass O: USU-2nd; CSU-5th
Total O: USU-1st; CSU-3rd

Score D: USU-12th; CSU-6th
Rush D: USU-12th; CSU-3rd
Pass D: USU-12th; CSU-3rd
Total D: USU-12th; CSU-3rd

Overall Rankings
(This week I'm changing my method of ranking from both point differential and yard differential combined to only the relative point differential. I think it will provide a more accurate ranking.)

1. Air Force (+54.54%)
2. Boise St (+52.18%)
3. SDSU (+44.44%)
4. Fresno St (+33.57%)
5. Colorado St (+31.79%)
6. Wyoming (+30.97%)
7. Nevada (+26.83%)
8. USU (+13.23%)
9. Hawai'i (-2.93%)
10. UNLV (-11.74%)
11. SJSU (-15.94%)
12. New Mexico (-46.25%)
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Re: Bah! Bah! BBD Stats! (Week 8, Colorado St)

Post by WAAggie » October 21st, 2021, 2:34 pm

Stop their tight end and stack against the run? They may have another run fest on our D.


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Re: Bah! Bah! BBD Stats! (Week 8, Colorado St)

Post by AggieFBObsession » October 21st, 2021, 3:13 pm

Friel will be the worst QB we see all season long, and that includes NMSU's QB who isn't too bad. Even Hawaii's and SJSU's back up QBs are better than Friel. So you'd expect the Aggie pass D to do better against UNLV. However, that doesn't give me any comfort for the upcoming QBs. Colorado State's QB, Centeio, isn't great either, but I suspect he's better than Friel from the limited passes I've seen him throw. Only Terry Wilson at UNM will challenge Friel for the worst QB on our schedule.

I was listening to the students' podcast on the Aggies game against UNLV. Again, they're complaining about play calling. It's just not an educated take on that game. I could see the complaint when you look at the Boise State game, but not the UNLV game. Our OL is an issue. UNLV's DL is pretty good and we won't face many DLs like that for the rest of the season except for Wyoming and SJSU can play like that or better in spurts.

The bottom line with the Aggies is that our talent at WR, RB and, at times, at QB is carrying us. Our OL is just good enough to get by, but they might be one of the bottom 3 OLs in the conference. I literally can't think of an OL in the conference that's worse, maybe UNM, but NMSU's definitely is.

By the way, I watched the Hawaii/Fresno and SJSU/SDSU games. SJSU is better than I thought even with the backup QB. They suffered from very poor officiating in that game. Probably the worst officiated game I've seen yet in the MWC. Their DL is legit, basically the same as last year. Their TE, Deese, is top 2 in the MWC with CSU's McBride. Look out for #85 on Saturday for CSU! Centeio will throw to him nearly every time they pass which isn't too often. Hawaii's DBs are among the best in the conference. I think they'll give Bonner fits. They mix zone and man/man coverage with blitzes similar to how Gary Anderson Ver 1.0 used to run blitzes as well as Matt Wells at times. Probably the best defensive scheme I've seen in the MWC this year. SJSU has good DBs too but not quite as tough. Hawaii has Calvin Turner Jr who's name most reminds you of Calvin Tyler Jr and his game reminds you most of Deven Thompkins. He literally seems to be a mirror image of Deven, except doesn't have the same stats, but definitely has the same hands, leaping ability and speed. Then Hawaii brings a great RB to the table in Dae Dae Hunter who will remind you of Charles Williams from UNLV. We are going to have our hands completely full with Hawaii and SJSU!



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Re: Bah! Bah! BBD Stats! (Week 8, Colorado St)

Post by frankiesaysrelax » October 21st, 2021, 3:39 pm

I’ve seen it mentioned a few time in CSUs forum about how they think their team will play with an extra chip on their shoulders because we bailed on their game last year. I don’t see that being any motivation for a team to get up for a game. Does anyone think that will be a factor at all? It was a free win for them. I think fans have more feeling since they missed a home game.



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