Calling it: Sheep by 2; USU covers

USU78 · Post by **USU78** » October 18th, 2021, 11:26 pm

USU<CSU

Score: ((29.0+20.1)/2=24.55)<(24.1+29.5)/2=26.8)

25-27

Rushing: ((169.7+99)/2=134.35)<((174.7+206.5)/2=190.6)
Passing: ((315.2+194.9)/2=250.05)>((228.6+235)/2=231.8)
Total: 384.4<422.4

384-422

So, the Ags get outgained by 38 yards and outscored by 2. This compares favorably both with the Sagarin predictor (CSU -<1) and Vegasinsider.com (CSU -3.5 at present, though it opened at CSU -1).

On the other hand, CSU has played against significantly worse offenses than ours, on average. If someone were to wish to be more aggressive in calling this game, he could take this into account, leaving the relative offensive numbers in place, but granting USU some kind of offset against CSU's impressive defensive numbers. 99 ypc rushing? Seriously? I don't see that happening here. If USU can get the running game on track, this could end up a Homecoming miracle. As it is, this has the makings of a slugfest, like just about every other game between the two teams recently.

FL350Aggie · Post by **FL350Aggie** » October 19th, 2021, 8:18 am

Such a tough game to predict. Yes CSU by the numbers, has a great defense. But they’ve played some of the worst offenses in the country. A FCS team had the way in the air and on the ground against CSU. I agree it will be a one score game... I just hope USU has the ball last.

I won’t be betting on this one.

AGGIEinIOWA · Post by **AGGIEinIOWA** » October 20th, 2021, 7:16 pm

FL350Aggie wrote: ↑
October 19th, 2021, 8:18 am
Such a tough game to predict. Yes CSU by the numbers, has a great defense. But they’ve played some of the worst offenses in the country. A FCS team had the way in the air and on the ground against CSU. I agree it will be a one score game... I just hope USU has the ball last.
I won’t be betting on this one.

Yeah this is a difficult game to predict. CSU has no good wins. TBH, not sure why they are getting so much respect and favored in this game. At least we have a win against a winning P5 team and also one of the best teams in the conference (AF). Our two losses are to Boise and BYU. CSU has beat the last place MAC West team, NM (worst MW team), and a struggling SJSU. They've lost to Vandy (bad bad team), SDSU (good FCS), and a top 10 team. I don't get it. I expect they will give us everything we can handle but I just don't buy the line that they are a contender yet. Maybe ask me in a few weeks if they can string together some decent wins.

slcagg · Post by **slcagg** » October 20th, 2021, 7:22 pm

AGGIEinIOWA wrote: ↑
October 20th, 2021, 7:16 pm

FL350Aggie wrote: ↑
October 19th, 2021, 8:18 am
Such a tough game to predict. Yes CSU by the numbers, has a great defense. But they’ve played some of the worst offenses in the country. A FCS team had the way in the air and on the ground against CSU. I agree it will be a one score game... I just hope USU has the ball last.
I won’t be betting on this one.
Yeah this is a difficult game to predict. CSU has no good wins. TBH, not sure why they are getting so much respect and favored in this game. At least we have a win against a winning P5 team and also one of the best teams in the conference (AF). Our two losses are to Boise and BYU. CSU has beat the last place MAC West team, NM (worst MW team), and a struggling SJSU. They've lost to Vandy (bad bad team), SDSU (good FCS), and a top 10 team. I don't get it. I expect they will give us everything we can handle but I just don't buy the line that they are a contender yet. Maybe ask me in a few weeks if they can string together some decent wins.

I suspect playing Iowa strong is the biggest reason behind their numbers.

AGGIEinIOWA · Post by **AGGIEinIOWA** » October 20th, 2021, 8:36 pm

slcagg wrote:
AGGIEinIOWA wrote: ↑
October 20th, 2021, 7:16 pm

FL350Aggie wrote: ↑
October 19th, 2021, 8:18 am
Such a tough game to predict. Yes CSU by the numbers, has a great defense. But they’ve played some of the worst offenses in the country. A FCS team had the way in the air and on the ground against CSU. I agree it will be a one score game... I just hope USU has the ball last.
I won’t be betting on this one.
Yeah this is a difficult game to predict. CSU has no good wins. TBH, not sure why they are getting so much respect and favored in this game. At least we have a win against a winning P5 team and also one of the best teams in the conference (AF). Our two losses are to Boise and BYU. CSU has beat the last place MAC West team, NM (worst MW team), and a struggling SJSU. They've lost to Vandy (bad bad team), SDSU (good FCS), and a top 10 team. I don't get it. I expect they will give us everything we can handle but I just don't buy the line that they are a contender yet. Maybe ask me in a few weeks if they can string together some decent wins.
I suspect playing Iowa strong is the biggest reason behind their numbers.

Trust me, I’ve watched Iowa plenty. They are good but they ran vanilla against CSU and I’m sure the players were over looking them a bit after seeing who CSU had lost to. Kind of like us and UNLV. CSU does have some talent and size and have the physicality to match up with a ground and pound BigTen team like Iowa who counts on defense to win. They haven’t played a team with a great offense yet. Last years SJSU team was formidable on offense but not the Sparta team they beat two weeks ago. I think our offense will give them some problems, especially as the game wears on. My biggest worry is in the trenches…where we may struggle unless we can keep them off balance. We very well could lose but I just think CSU is getting way too much hype for what they’ve actually shown.

ViAggie · Post by **ViAggie** » October 20th, 2021, 11:15 pm

Prediction time: CSU appears to score on a last second TD... WR steps out of bounds by 1" on the 5 yard line, no TD no time left on the clock.... oh wait...too soon?

AGNUMPI · Post by **AGNUMPI** » October 21st, 2021, 5:01 am

ViAggie wrote: ↑
October 20th, 2021, 11:15 pm
Prediction time: CSU appears to score on a last second TD... WR steps out of bounds by 1" on the 5 yard line, no TD no time left on the clock.... oh wait...too soon?

What's funny is there is probably a good sized group of USU fans that rage/depression quit watching that game because we suddenly lost the game.

FL350Aggie · Post by **FL350Aggie** » October 21st, 2021, 9:28 am

AGNUMPI wrote: ↑
October 21st, 2021, 5:01 am

ViAggie wrote: ↑
October 20th, 2021, 11:15 pm
Prediction time: CSU appears to score on a last second TD... WR steps out of bounds by 1" on the 5 yard line, no TD no time left on the clock.... oh wait...too soon?

What's funny is there is probably a good sized group of USU fans that rage/depression quit watching that game because we suddenly lost the game.

Ha ha my brother was one of them. To his credit he’s a diehard fan and he was in Ft. Collins freezing his A off. As soon as it appeared they scored he was sprinting for his rental car. I called him as soon as they reversed it, after a couple minutes of listening to him vent and cuss I just laughed and broke him the news. He thought I was messing with him. Good times.

BearLakeMonster · Post by **BearLakeMonster** » October 21st, 2021, 3:11 pm

Helluva way to win a game. I almost felt guilty afterwards.

AGNUMPI · Post by **AGNUMPI** » October 21st, 2021, 3:50 pm

BearLakeMonster wrote: ↑
October 21st, 2021, 3:11 pm
Helluva way to win a game. I almost felt guilty afterwards.

I didn't even almost. Rules are rules. We've been screwed over so many times it was nice to get one back. And it's not like it was even a bad call. It was legit by the rule book. The WR just made a mistake. It happens.

AGNUMPI · Post by **AGNUMPI** » October 21st, 2021, 3:59 pm

ViAggie wrote: ↑
October 20th, 2021, 11:15 pm
Prediction time: CSU appears to score on a last second TD... WR steps out of bounds by 1" on the 5 yard line, no TD no time left on the clock.... oh wait...too soon?

Who is the coach pointing at :39? Someone needs to interview that guy and get his story on this. I love the expression on his face like, "Oh, man, this is going to be good!"

At 1:12 the super homer announcer chuckles, "That's a tough one to swallow." Referring to Matt wells staying on our side of the sideline.

This is one of those games that will feed this rivalry for decades. I love college football. Real college football, not corporate big money college football.

BigBlueDart · Post by **BigBlueDart** » October 21st, 2021, 4:19 pm

That win didn't really feel satisfying to me after all that.

NVAggie · Post by **NVAggie** » October 21st, 2021, 4:37 pm

In the end, it helped them decide to dismiss Bobo. The team almost did enough to keep him employed at CSU for another season.

FL350Aggie · Post by **FL350Aggie** » October 21st, 2021, 5:17 pm

NVAggie wrote: ↑
October 21st, 2021, 4:37 pm
In the end, it helped them decide to dismiss Bobo. The team almost did enough to keep him employed at CSU for another season.

Bobo sitting in brutal cold with no coat and a short sleeve is probably the strangest thing in the video. Matt’s beanie literally has ice on the top it, Bobo is dressed like it’s 70 degrees and sunny.

AGGIEinIOWA · Post by **AGGIEinIOWA** » October 21st, 2021, 7:50 pm

I appreciate our new Bridger Battle with Wyoming but I also think we have a bit of an unofficial rivalry with CSU. We are pier institutions, have had a history of riveting games, are neighbor states, and they were once named the Aggies as well. After all we’ve played them over 70 times through the ages with a near even record. I enjoy the CSU games.

NVAggie · Post by **NVAggie** » October 21st, 2021, 10:58 pm

Bono was trying to get his guys going after a very disappointing season. He had some health issues and was hoping one last Hail Mary could save his job.

travelingagg · Post by **travelingagg** » October 22nd, 2021, 12:39 am

CSU OL vs. USU DL starters
LT Williams, Keith 6'7" 285 lbs
LG Wesley, Barry 6'7" 310 lbs
DT Moore, Marcus 6'2" 255 lbs
OC Reddy, Cam 6'2" 310 lbs
DT Motu'apuaka, Hale 6'1" 275 lbs
RG Korutz, Adam 6'2" 305 lbs
RT Jackson, Ches 6'4" 295 lbs

USU OL vs. CSU DL starters
LT Edwards, Alfred 6'7" 320 lbs
DE Patchan, Scott 6'6" 270
LG Ali'ifua, Demytrick 6'3" 320 lbs
DT Phillips, Devin 6'2" 305 lbs
OC Dolphin, Chandler 6'3" 290 lbs
DT Jones, Manny 6'4" 290 lbs
RG White, Quazzel 6'3" 310 lbs
DE McBride, Toby 6'3" 270 lbs
RT Motes, Cole 6'5" 300 lbs

AggieFBObsession · Post by **AggieFBObsession** » October 22nd, 2021, 1:06 am

@travelingagg yikes!

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » October 22nd, 2021, 7:11 am

FL350Aggie wrote: ↑
October 21st, 2021, 5:17 pm

NVAggie wrote: ↑
October 21st, 2021, 4:37 pm
In the end, it helped them decide to dismiss Bobo. The team almost did enough to keep him employed at CSU for another season.

Bobo sitting in brutal cold with no coat and a short sleeve is probably the strangest thing in the video. Matt’s beanie literally has ice on the top it, Bobo is dressed like it’s 70 degrees and sunny.

Bobo was trying to act tough, but it was too much for me. Bobo, sure you are a tough guy, but it is 20 degrees out put on sweatshirt. It was really odd.

FloridaAggie13 · Post by **FloridaAggie13** » October 22nd, 2021, 9:28 am

AGNUMPI wrote: ↑
October 21st, 2021, 5:01 am

ViAggie wrote: ↑
October 20th, 2021, 11:15 pm
Prediction time: CSU appears to score on a last second TD... WR steps out of bounds by 1" on the 5 yard line, no TD no time left on the clock.... oh wait...too soon?

What's funny is there is probably a good sized group of USU fans that rage/depression quit watching that game because we suddenly lost the game.

And Matt Wells literally heard his job offers being run through the shredder. "...coach, we've run into a few administrative snafus, we'll have to get back to you regarding the offer..."

trombone_ninja · Post by **trombone_ninja** » October 22nd, 2021, 11:42 am

AGNUMPI wrote: ↑
October 21st, 2021, 5:01 am

ViAggie wrote: ↑
October 20th, 2021, 11:15 pm
Prediction time: CSU appears to score on a last second TD... WR steps out of bounds by 1" on the 5 yard line, no TD no time left on the clock.... oh wait...too soon?

What's funny is there is probably a good sized group of USU fans that rage/depression quit watching that game because we suddenly lost the game.

I probably would've been one of them if I hadn't been at the game... but instead I didn't really have anywhere to go since my feet were frozen to the ground

frankiesaysrelax · Post by **frankiesaysrelax** » October 23rd, 2021, 12:32 pm

USU78 wrote: ↑
October 18th, 2021, 11:26 pm
USU<CSU

Score: ((29.0+20.1)/2=24.55)<(24.1+29.5)/2=26.8)

25-27

Rushing: ((169.7+99)/2=134.35)<((174.7+206.5)/2=190.6)
Passing: ((315.2+194.9)/2=250.05)>((228.6+235)/2=231.8)
Total: 384.4<422.4

384-422

So, the Ags get outgained by 38 yards and outscored by 2. This compares favorably both with the Sagarin predictor (CSU -<1) and Vegasinsider.com (CSU -3.5 at present, though it opened at CSU -1).

On the other hand, CSU has played against significantly worse offenses than ours, on average. If someone were to wish to be more aggressive in calling this game, he could take this into account, leaving the relative offensive numbers in place, but granting USU some kind of offset against CSU's impressive defensive numbers. 99 ypc rushing? Seriously? I don't see that happening here. If USU can get the running game on track, this could end up a Homecoming miracle. As it is, this has the makings of a slugfest, like just about every other game between the two teams recently.

Wow. This would have been an almost perfect prediction of they made the field goal.

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