What happens in BBD Stats stays in BBD Stats (Week 7, UNLV)

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What happens in BBD Stats stays in BBD Stats (Week 7, UNLV)

Post by BigBlueDart » October 13th, 2021, 12:52 pm

After a bye week you wouldn't expect our numbers to change much, and they haven't. But if you're curious and would like to compare, feel free to go back to last week's post.

Looking at UNLV's numbers you might get a good sense of why I do this analysis. The raw numbers make UNLV look like a really bad team. Their average scoring O is under 20, and they can't even gain 300 yards a game. They give up over 35 points a game, and allow over 450 yards! But then you look at the averages of what their opponents to date allow or gain, and those numbers for the Rebels aren't quite as bad as you were thinking. They're still poor on offense, but only about 10% worse than what their opponents usually allow. And on defense (surprise, surprise) they are actually on the good side of things! Not a lockdown defense, but despite their terrible averages they are actually giving up fewer points and yards than their opponents usually get! So this team is the perfect trap team for just about anybody. Most fans would look at that 0-5 record, and the stats, and assume this is an easy win. The more savvy fan will recognize they've played some stout competition and take everything with a grain of salt. This analysis exposes why we should do that. Oh, we'll be favored! But the win will have to be earned against a "better-than-they-look" Rebels squad.

USU
Score O: 29.2 Avg; 20.7 Opp. D; 8.5 ppg better; 41.25%
Rush O: 175.2 Avg; 144.3 Opp. D; 30.9 ypg better; 21.45%
Pass O: 318.6 Avg; 218.0 Opp. D; 100.6 ypg better; 46.14%
Total O: 493.8 Avg; 362.3 Opp. D; 131.5 ypg better; 36.30%
Score D: 30.6 Avg; 28.3 Opp. O; -2.3 ppg worse; -8.18%
Rush D: 204.0 Avg; 174.5 Opp. O; -29.5 ypg worse; -16.89%
Pass D: 259.8 Avg; 218.2 Opp. O; -41.6 ypg worse; -19.05%
Total D: 463.8 Avg; 392.7 Opp. O; -71.1 ypg worse; -18.09%

UNLV
Score O: 18.6 Avg; 21.0 Opp. D; -2.4 ppg worse; -11.23%
Rush O: 102.8 Avg; 114.3 Opp. D; -11.5 ypg worse; -10.03%
Pass O: 179.6 Avg; 199.7 Opp. D; -20.1 ypg worse; -10.05%
Total O: 282.4 Avg; 313.9 Opp. D; -31.5 ypg worse; -10.04%
Score D: 36.4 Avg; 39.0 Opp. O; 2.6 ppg better; 6.57%
Rush D: 151.0 Avg; 170.0 Opp. O; 19.0 ypg better; 11.17%
Pass D: 302.8 Avg; 320.1 Opp. O; 17.3 ypg better; 5.42%
Total D: 453.8 Avg; 490.1 Opp. O; 36.3 ypg better; 7.41%

And the official BBD BS prediction:
USU - 35.78 (169.08 rush, 352.32 pass, 521.40 total)
UNLV - 24.58 (162.41 rush, 230.45 pass, 392.86 total)

Category Rankings

Score O: USU-1st; UNLV-10th
Rush O: USU-4th; UNLV-7th
Pass O: USU-1st; UNLV-7th
Total O: USU-1st; UNLV-10th

Score D: USU-12th; UNLV-7th
Rush D: USU-12th; UNLV-6th
Pass D: USU-12th; UNLV-4th
Total D: USU-12th; UNLV-6th

Overall Rankings

1. Air Force (+102.30%)
2. Boise St (+64.37%)
3. SDSU (+62.50%)
4. Wyoming (+56.80%)
5. Fresno St (+53.37%)
6. USU (+51.28%)
7. Colorado St (+48.39%)
8. Nevada (+31.97%)
9. Hawai'i (-0.90%)
10. UNLV (-7.29%)
11. SJSU (-37.94%)
12. New Mexico (-48.58%)
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Re: What happens in BBD Stats stays in BBD Stats (Week 7, UNLV)

Post by 3rdGenAggie » October 13th, 2021, 12:58 pm

Are the "Category Rankings" in conference?

If so, is it saying that USU has the best offense in the conference and the worst defense in the conference (at least using BBD Stats)?

The defensive stats aren't overly surprising to me, but the Scoring O stat particularly really surprises me considering that we scored 3 points against Boise (despite gaining lots of yards).


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Re: What happens in BBD Stats stays in BBD Stats (Week 7, UNLV)

Post by ViAggie » October 13th, 2021, 2:42 pm

our redzone O is not very good, we stalled in the redzone in both of our last two games, we had better figure out how to fix that and quick, FG's wont win us this game, and if we can't get scores on big play's we're in trouble. Conversely, our redzone D is looking pretty dang good, but also needs improvement.


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Re: What happens in BBD Stats stays in BBD Stats (Week 7, UNLV)

Post by BigBlueDart » October 13th, 2021, 2:44 pm

Yes, the "Category Rankings" are in conference rankings. We've been at the top in offense and bottom in defense, or close to it, for a bit, now.

For our Scoring O stat, we are ranked 7th in the conference with the raw stat, but it has been against tougher defenses than those ranked above us. So when the competition is taken into account we get bumped up to number 1. Prior to the Boise St and BYU games that gap was a whole lot bigger, and we probably were even #1 with the raw stat. Expect big numbers from the offense as we start facing some of the weaker defenses in the conference.
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Re: What happens in BBD Stats stays in BBD Stats (Week 7, UNLV)

Post by ViAggie » October 13th, 2021, 3:08 pm

BigBlueDart wrote:
October 13th, 2021, 2:44 pm
Yes, the "Category Rankings" are in conference rankings. We've been at the top in offense and bottom in defense, or close to it, for a bit, now.

For our Scoring O stat, we are ranked 7th in the conference with the raw stat, but it has been against tougher defenses than those ranked above us. So when the competition is taken into account we get bumped up to number 1. Prior to the Boise St and BYU games that gap was a whole lot bigger, and we probably were even #1 with the raw stat. Expect big numbers from the offense as we start facing some of the weaker defenses in the conference.
We scored more points against ybu than Arizona State, Arizona and Utah did. I guess that's something? :noidea: :lol:
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