30 ewe (78.66)
33 Boazy (79.02) <3-27>
37 yBu (75.26) <20-34>
44 AFA (73.76) <49-45>
52 Reno (71.79)
56 San Diego (71.12)
60 Wyoming (69.87) <Wyo by 0.39> @ USU
71 Wazzu (70.76) <26-23>
75 Fresno (71.50)
83 Colo St (68.29) <USU by 1.19> @ USU
84 USU (66.93)
105 Colorado (63.59)
108 San Jose (60.51) <USU by 3.87> @ SJSU
109 Hawai'i (60.31) <USU by 9.17> @ USU
128 Weebe (58.45)
129 Vegas (58.84) <USU by 5.54> @ Vegas
130 No Dakota (57.44) <48-24>
134 UTEP (52.62)
148 New Mejico (51.34) <USU by 13.04> @ UNM
192 NewMags (43.45) <USU by 20.93> @ NMSU
204 So Ewe (40.05)
218 Dixie (35.54)

By sitting out a week, not only do the Ags get to heal up emotionally and physically after 3 awful, grueling games in a row, but they get to stretch their legs at their 2nd favorite MWC opponent (undefeated against these guys in league). That they went 1-2 in those last 3 games, including an incredible league road win in division, is nothing short of astonishing.

Now for the remainder of the season. We have three home games and four road games. We are favored, per Sagarin Predictor, in all but one, and that one at home, and we are a slight dog in a pick-em:

Wyoming (Home): Ags a 0.39 pt dog. At home you have to love our chances, whatever the weather.
CSU (Home): Ags a 1.19 pt favorite. Sagarin is only allowing a 2.55 pt home advantage right now.
San Jose (Road): Ags a 3.87 pt favorite. This has grown, and with SJS' starting QB having physical struggles, who knows?
Hawai'i (Home): Ags a 9.17 pt favorite. This has also grown.
Vegas (Road): Ags a 5.54 pt favorite. I smell a trap, but these guys are our 2nd favorite punching bag.
UNM (Road): Ags a 13.04 pt favorite. Mordor, USA, smelling like victory.
NMSU (Road): Ags a 20.93 pt favorite. Our favorite FB punching bag.

Why are WSU and Fresno ranked below Wyoming while having higher scores?

BigBlueDart wrote: ↑

October 12th, 2021, 12:34 pm

Why are WSU and Fresno ranked below Wyoming while having higher scores?

Great question. Answer: I don't know what metrics Sagarin uses in doing this, but I've noticed that this isn't particularly unusual. A lower ranked team can sometimes be expected to outperform its ranking, but rarely by very much, in the Sagarin Predictor.

For comparison's sake, here are the ESPN FPI numbers for the Ags' remaining games, ranked toughest to easiest:

Wyoming: -45.6%
@SJSU: 53.1%
CSU: 56.1%
@UNLV: 62.4%
Hawai'i: 74.4%
@UNM: 78.2%
@NMSU: 85.5%

http://www.espn.com/college-football/te ... ate-aggies

We will beat Wyoming, but I'm more worried about the next game, and hopefully we'll have fixed our predictability with our play calling.

ViAggie wrote: ↑

October 12th, 2021, 1:15 pm

We will beat Wyoming, but I'm more worried about the next game, and hopefully we'll have fixed our predictability with our play calling.

So you think we'll beat Wyoming, but you're worried about New Mexico?

BigBlueDart wrote: ↑

October 12th, 2021, 1:43 pm

ViAggie wrote: ↑

October 12th, 2021, 1:15 pm

We will beat Wyoming, but I'm more worried about the next game, and hopefully we'll have fixed our predictability with our play calling.

So you think we'll beat Wyoming, but you're worried about New Mexico?

I think he means Vegas.