USU opens as a 9 point favorite

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USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by GUS » October 10th, 2021, 12:25 pm

We should be able to cover that against UNLV.



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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by USU78 » October 10th, 2021, 12:29 pm

USU beats these guys 75% of the time:

http://www.winsipedia.com/utah-state/vs/unlv

Sagarin sez: 70% chance USU wins.


You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by AggieFBObsession » October 10th, 2021, 2:19 pm

GUS wrote:
October 10th, 2021, 12:25 pm
We should be able to cover that against UNLV.
This game is likely to become a shootout. It could go several different ways.



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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by Hoot » October 10th, 2021, 2:57 pm

The Aggies will win or lose this game. It is likely that the margin of points will be somewhere between a blowout and a real nail biter. The respective teams will either play well or play poorly or somewhere in between.
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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by usugoalie13 » October 10th, 2021, 3:20 pm

Hoot wrote:
October 10th, 2021, 2:57 pm
The Aggies will win or lose this game. It is likely that the margin of points will be somewhere between a blowout and a real nail biter. The respective teams will either play well or play poorly or somewhere in between.
I can guarantee that the winning team has more points than the losing team.
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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by Imakeitrain » October 10th, 2021, 4:24 pm

Y’all are making things complicated. Look, they can’t win if we beat them.


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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by ViAggie » October 10th, 2021, 4:27 pm

BOO, I like playing as the underdog!


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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by aggies22 » October 10th, 2021, 5:44 pm

usugoalie13 wrote:
October 10th, 2021, 3:20 pm
Hoot wrote:
October 10th, 2021, 2:57 pm
The Aggies will win or lose this game. It is likely that the margin of points will be somewhere between a blowout and a real nail biter. The respective teams will either play well or play poorly or somewhere in between.
I can guarantee that the winning team has more points than the losing team.
You guys are a .........hoot.



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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by ineptimusprime » October 10th, 2021, 6:07 pm

I see it as a 45-35 type game.



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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by Sl7vk » October 11th, 2021, 9:30 am

Line is dropping very fast.



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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by 88USUAggie » October 11th, 2021, 9:47 am

UNLV lost to EWU by 2...EWU beat Montana; they played Fresno very tough; they were in the ASU game till the 4th

They are the best win-less college football team, this game will be tough, 9 point line is crazy...now at 6.5...I think that is nuts too. Looking forward to seeing this game in person, but I won't be surprised if we lose. Rebs are not a bad team.



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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by ViAggie » October 11th, 2021, 9:59 am

Sad to think we could lose this game, UNLV is one of those teams who’s number we seem to have, I can’t remember the last time we even lost to them? Even before knowing how good our Aggies might be this year most everyone had this game circled as a likely win. Fact is all remaining games on our schedule are toss ups, and we had better come to play on Saturday


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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by sambonethegreat » October 11th, 2021, 10:47 am

ViAggie wrote:Sad to think we could lose this game, UNLV is one of those teams who’s number we seem to have, I can’t remember the last time we even lost to them? Even before knowing how good our Aggies might be this year most everyone had this game circled as a likely win. Fact is all remaining games on our schedule are toss ups, and we had better come to play on Saturday
We last lost to these guys in 2008. This game is almost a given. Rebels are winless for a reason and it will hold true at least through Saturday.


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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by Aggie19 » October 11th, 2021, 10:53 am

Some of these comments got me thinking I should bet on the Rebs. Hoping our guys are a little more cautious after losing 2 in a row and struggling on defense.


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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by newhouse9 » October 11th, 2021, 11:07 am

This is a scary game for me. Vegas is a distraction, the stadium will be a distraction, and the Rebs have some talent. I think we have a good chance to win this and the rest of our games; but I'm a lot closer to 50/50 on all of these games. Maybe my overly-cautious approach to things.

But I'll be there at the game, so I look forward to seeing you all there!



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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by Aggie702 » October 11th, 2021, 11:26 am

sambonethegreat wrote:
October 11th, 2021, 10:47 am
ViAggie wrote:Sad to think we could lose this game, UNLV is one of those teams who’s number we seem to have, I can’t remember the last time we even lost to them? Even before knowing how good our Aggies might be this year most everyone had this game circled as a likely win. Fact is all remaining games on our schedule are toss ups, and we had better come to play on Saturday
We last lost to these guys in 2008. This game is almost a given. Rebels are winless for a reason and it will hold true at least through Saturday.


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I was at that game in '08 (which was a non-conference game back then), as well as all other Aggie games in Vegas since then. I'll be there Saturday, with a USU -6.5 ticket in my pocket lol.



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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by ineptimusprime » October 11th, 2021, 11:38 am

I think we’ll win a 7-10 point game, but I believe UNLV is better than UNM, NMSU, and SJSU.

Probably significantly better than the former 2.



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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by NVAggie » October 11th, 2021, 11:56 am

I seem to remember our QB being Stetzer or something like that in the UNLV 08 game. It was a pretty crappy game to watch.



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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by Blue Sage » October 11th, 2021, 12:01 pm

Listen, I think there are a lot of nerves out there which is understandable after 2 losses. We are coming off of a bye, and are going to be dialed in and HUNGRY for a win. I believe in this team and believe they will bring home the W accompanied by a healthy double-figure win. I think the line is moving because people realize that UNLV is better than advertised but are forgetting that U-State is moving the ball with ease. Bonner will likely be the most healthy he has been all year. Look for a U-State offensive display in the 40's. I don't think UNLV will keep up in the fourth quarter and if they don't keep up in the 3rd it could get ugly.



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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by BigBlueDart » October 11th, 2021, 1:11 pm

NVAggie wrote:
October 11th, 2021, 11:56 am
I seem to remember our QB being Stetzer or something like that in the UNLV 08 game. It was a pretty crappy game to watch.
I don't remember a QB named Stetzer. Wasn't Borel our QB during Guy's last year?



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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by AggieFBObsession » October 11th, 2021, 1:13 pm

Blue Sage wrote:
October 11th, 2021, 12:01 pm
Look for a U-State offensive display in the 40's. I don't think UNLV will keep up in the fourth quarter and if they don't keep up in the 3rd it could get ugly.
I think it'll be close and it'll be a shootout. UNLV had a fourth quarter lead on Fresno in Fresno. Fresno is arguably the best MWC team. Nobody in the MWC has ooc performances like they had against UCLA and Oregon.



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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by NVAggie » October 11th, 2021, 1:25 pm




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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by ViAggie » October 11th, 2021, 1:52 pm

I get that match ups are always different (I already made that argument in the "Navy" thread), but I have to wonder how UNLV would have matched up with our first three opponents? AFA's only loss so far this year us, North Dakota's only loss besides us is from FCS powerhouse and rival NDSU, and Washington State is on a tear right now. No way UNLV beats AFA or Washington State, they might beat ND-U but that's about it. Boise and ybu would roll them. BUT they are at home, and hungry. lets hope there are more Aggies in that stadium than Rebel fans, and maybe we'll take away that home field advantage.


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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by aggies22 » October 11th, 2021, 2:58 pm

BigBlueDart wrote:
October 11th, 2021, 1:11 pm
NVAggie wrote:
October 11th, 2021, 11:56 am
I seem to remember our QB being Stetzer or something like that in the UNLV 08 game. It was a pretty crappy game to watch.
I don't remember a QB named Stetzer. Wasn't Borel our QB during Guy's last year?
Sean Setzer. He was a JuCo guy.



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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by BigBlueDart » October 11th, 2021, 3:00 pm

Agreed that we should beat UNLV. I'm thinking we're probably pretty close to a consensus on that. Most of us also seem to think that we can't just sleep-walk our way to a win against them. Their two close losses against decent teams recently just give some of us pause.

I am expecting a win on Saturday, and will be quite upset if we lose. But I'll also be glad to have the game in the rear-view mirror if... err, I mean when we win. The same can probably be said for a few of our remaining games.
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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by BearLakeMonster » October 11th, 2021, 5:21 pm

aggies22 wrote:
October 11th, 2021, 2:58 pm
BigBlueDart wrote:
October 11th, 2021, 1:11 pm
NVAggie wrote:
October 11th, 2021, 11:56 am
I seem to remember our QB being Stetzer or something like that in the UNLV 08 game. It was a pretty crappy game to watch.
I don't remember a QB named Stetzer. Wasn't Borel our QB during Guy's last year?
Sean Setzer. He was a JuCo guy.
No, I think it's Seltzer.


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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by ColoAggie » October 11th, 2021, 5:37 pm

Blue Sage wrote:
October 11th, 2021, 12:01 pm
Listen, I think there are a lot of nerves out there which is understandable after 2 losses. We are coming off of a bye, and are going to be dialed in and HUNGRY for a win. I believe in this team and believe they will bring home the W accompanied by a healthy double-figure win. I think the line is moving because people realize that UNLV is better than advertised but are forgetting that U-State is moving the ball with ease. Bonner will likely be the most healthy he has been all year. Look for a U-State offensive display in the 40's. I don't think UNLV will keep up in the fourth quarter and if they don't keep up in the 3rd it could get ugly.
Moving the ball and scoring are very different, and we didn't really do much of either the last game. Defenses are figuring it out. Most won't agree, but I think the offense is gimmicky (the playing super fast part) and in general very predictable.



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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by BigBlueDart » October 11th, 2021, 5:41 pm

ColoAggie wrote:
October 11th, 2021, 5:37 pm
Blue Sage wrote:
October 11th, 2021, 12:01 pm
Listen, I think there are a lot of nerves out there which is understandable after 2 losses. We are coming off of a bye, and are going to be dialed in and HUNGRY for a win. I believe in this team and believe they will bring home the W accompanied by a healthy double-figure win. I think the line is moving because people realize that UNLV is better than advertised but are forgetting that U-State is moving the ball with ease. Bonner will likely be the most healthy he has been all year. Look for a U-State offensive display in the 40's. I don't think UNLV will keep up in the fourth quarter and if they don't keep up in the 3rd it could get ugly.
Moving the ball and scoring are very different, and we didn't really do much of either the last game. Defenses are figuring it out. Most won't agree, but I think the offense is gimmicky (the playing super fast part) and in general very predictable.
I get that concern, but I also think that we've got some less-disciplined and skilled defenses coming up. I'm hopeful we'll still have some explosive games, though I could certainly see us struggling again with some of the stronger D's, like Wyoming and CSU. Of course, we have already faced what might be the toughest D in the league in Air Force. :noidea:



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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by WAAggie » October 11th, 2021, 6:59 pm

I think Both d lines we just played are much better than the rest of our schedule. That limited our run success and also forced quicker passes. Our routes may be a little slow to develop so qb had to get rid of ball sooner.

We’ll see


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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by NVAggie » October 12th, 2021, 8:16 am

We had guys get behind the defense, but Bonner couldn't hit them.



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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by Mountain West Militia » October 12th, 2021, 4:51 pm

ESPN's Football Power Index gives USU a 62.4% likelihood of winning UNLV. The highest this number ever got was after the AFA win, at 80.8%. It's dropped steadily since then. We started out the season with a 50.9% likelihood of winning this game, so when we stared the season, ESPN was thinking this UNLV game was one of only four games we were going to win this year! I believe the statistics point to a win....
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Re: USU opens as a 9 point favorite

Post by hickaggie » October 14th, 2021, 3:51 pm

NVAggie wrote:
October 12th, 2021, 8:16 am
We had guys get behind the defense, but Bonner couldn't hit them.
That is going to be a reoccuring theme until he shows he can. Good secondaries are going to make life difficult on the Aggies until he does by selling out underneath. I don't know who on the remaining schedule has that? Bonner just needs to hand the ball off and if we can run the ball like we should there should be some single coverage and holes in the middle of the field for those slants and crossers.

I want to say the Aggies are clearly the better team but the way the D has played I don't think the Offense can afford many possessions that don't result in points.



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