This line isn’t warranted based on each team’s performance thus far this season. Honestly a bit surprised. I see this as pretty easy money. AFA was not impressive against a really bad Navy and were just okay against Lafayette.

We will win this game by 14 points.

I don't take much out of the Navy game. navy knows better than anyone how to defend the triple option.

Interesting. I'm a bit surprised. But record against the spread is a good indicator of team trajectory. So far, 2-0 ATS.

AgMac wrote: ↑

September 12th, 2021, 1:03 pm

Interesting. I'm a bit surprised. But record against the spread is a good indicator of team trajectory. So far, 2-0 ATS.

We’ve beaten the spread by about 20 pts each game, right?

If we continue to be a second half team this is a very probable outcome.

ineptimusprime wrote: ↑

September 12th, 2021, 1:47 pm

AgMac wrote: ↑

September 12th, 2021, 1:03 pm

Interesting. I'm a bit surprised. But record against the spread is a good indicator of team trajectory. So far, 2-0 ATS.

We’ve beaten the spread by about 20 pts each game, right?

Yes.

Are force is so tricky though....
I'd be more inclined to take the money line for USU at this stage than the points. I think we'll either win, or lose by more than 11.

I dont expect us to be favored until we play UNLV

While I agree that 11 points sure is a bunch given what we've seen out of USU and AFA so far this year, I will say this:

AFA plays us incredibly tough. Even in years when we've won, it's been a slog (relative to some of our other wins). When we've lost, which has been often, they've typically punished us physically.

I'll take the 11 points if Vegas is offering them up, but I'm not ready to say we will beat AFA.

I agree the line is a little off but we have struggled against them. ESPN has us a slight favorite in the power index. Line has moved to -9.5.

3rdGenAggie wrote: ↑

September 12th, 2021, 12:27 pm

The key against Air Force is to get ahead early and make them play catch-up. USU will need to have a much, much better first quarter than we had against UND.

If we can get up a couple scores that helps a lot as AFA isn't really set up to score in bunches.

We have got to limit yardage on first down. The last couple years it seems like they got 7 or 8 yards every first down. We can't continually put ourselves in that position.

I just looked at last year's game log.

AFA ran 29 first down plays and gained 251 yards on those plays. That is an average of 8.7 yards per play. I think we held them to no yards on 2 or 3 of those plays. First downs are critical against the Academy.

We’ve been the under dog for every game so far this year, so good!

It has already moved down to -9 for AFA. That line will end around -5.5

I watched the Navy /Airforce game and came away with the impression that they were not as physical as they’ve been in the past. It is true that the triple option is a nightmare. Particularly when you only see it once a year. On the other hand USU continues to be very successful running the ball Between the tackles. A sure sign of up front dominance. I really like USU’s chances in this one. Go Aggies.

Side note. I also watched most of the Uby vs utah. I am glad that they are playing in Logan. Ybu’s offensive and defensive lines are pretty good. This one could be a tough one. Go Aggies

Gljflyfloater wrote: ↑

September 12th, 2021, 5:48 pm

I watched the Navy /Airforce game and came away with the impression that they were not as physical as they’ve been in the past. It is true that the triple option is a nightmare. Particularly when you only see it once a year. On the other hand USU continues to be very successful running the ball Between the tackles. A sure sign of up front dominance. I really like USU’s chances in this one. Go Aggies.

Side note. I also watched most of the Uby vs utah. I am glad that they are playing in Logan. Ybu’s offensive and defensive lines are pretty good. This one could be a tough one. Go Aggies

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think AFA is breaking in basically an entirely new offensive line.

The key to stopping AF is being able to constantly shut down the dive and then the speed to get to the edge. It will be a huge test for our D.

See that vegas and most pundents even some on this board are still considering last years team. This a completely different team. With that being said tatum and bond have really shown how they come down for run support. I see us winning by 11 or more.

Sent from my LG-G710 using Tapatalk

ineptimusprime wrote: ↑

September 12th, 2021, 7:09 pm

Gljflyfloater wrote: ↑

September 12th, 2021, 5:48 pm

I watched the Navy /Airforce game and came away with the impression that they were not as physical as they’ve been in the past. It is true that the triple option is a nightmare. Particularly when you only see it once a year. On the other hand USU continues to be very successful running the ball Between the tackles. A sure sign of up front dominance. I really like USU’s chances in this one. Go Aggies.

Side note. I also watched most of the Uby vs utah. I am glad that they are playing in Logan. Ybu’s offensive and defensive lines are pretty good. This one could be a tough one. Go Aggies

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think AFA is breaking in basically an entirely new offensive line.

They had a lot of guys opt out of the 2020 season, so they maybe didn't start last year, but many have started.

Air Force just went across the country and buried a rival by 20 in a road game. They are legit.

Besides Chukie, does anyone on the coaching staff have experience playing or coaching against the AFA and the option?
I'm concerned the lack of experience against their style of play could hurt our preparation this week.

WasatchAggie wrote: ↑

September 12th, 2021, 8:36 pm

Besides Chukie, does anyone on the coaching staff have experience playing or coaching against the AFA and the option?
I'm concerned the lack of experience against their style of play could hurt our preparation this week.

Obviously, we had a crappy coaching staff at the time, but we do have many returning players who played against them just last year. That should at least help them know what is coming. Hopefully, the new coaching staff can help them be better prepared this year.

Bybs25 wrote: ↑

September 12th, 2021, 7:50 pm

See that vegas and most pundents even some on this board are still considering last years team. This a completely different team. With that being said tatum and bond have really shown how they come down for run support. I see us winning by 11 or more.

Sent from my LG-G710 using Tapatalk

Thank you for your voice of reason. Too much whipped dog syndrome and YBU crushing on these threads right now.
I guess it should be expected, plenty were worried about UND. Time to start believing.

I remember that during the LaVell days BYU used to attack Air Force with penetration, so maybe our scheme won't need huge adjustments. I would assume we will play more zone than usual on the back end.

Rice played AFA. Twice.

We'll be okay

<Make that once, a 24-43 trouncing in a 4-8 record 2019, so maybe not>

FL350Aggie wrote: ↑

September 12th, 2021, 9:08 pm

Bybs25 wrote: ↑

September 12th, 2021, 7:50 pm

See that vegas and most pundents even some on this board are still considering last years team. This a completely different team. With that being said tatum and bond have really shown how they come down for run support. I see us winning by 11 or more.

Sent from my LG-G710 using Tapatalk

Thank you for your voice of reason. Too much whipped dog syndrome and YBU crushing on these threads right now.
I guess it should be expected, plenty were worried about UND. Time to start believing.

For me, this is the real measuring stick game for the season. We are obviously better than we were last year, but that's a really low bar to clear. Washington State is not a good team, though that was a nice win. North Dakota is really well coached and execute well, but they don't have the athletes we do. I feel like this game really will show us how good we are. If we're as good as I hope, we win by a couple of scores. If we're what I actually expect, it's a dog fight, tossup game. I don't think we get blown out in this one. But I won't be angry if we lose while showing some improvement and heart.

If the Offense keeps improving the way that they have been, and get Peasley 3-4 solid drives per game, I could see the Aggies hanging 35-40 points on AFA, and likely the defense can hold them to around 30 points or less. Let's just hope the defense can mentally figure our AFA this year without them scoring 28 points first. I think USU wins something like 34-27

Bovada has the line down to 8.5

Line is dropping faster than a led balloon.

Sl7vk wrote: ↑

September 13th, 2021, 10:32 am

Line is dropping faster than a led balloon.

The bettors see that we were dogs in our first two games and put money on us.

ViAggie wrote:

Sl7vk wrote: ↑

September 13th, 2021, 10:32 am

Line is dropping faster than a led balloon.

The bettors see that we were dogs in our first two games and put money on us.

We were favored last week


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

ViAggie wrote: ↑

September 13th, 2021, 10:55 am

Sl7vk wrote: ↑

September 13th, 2021, 10:32 am

Line is dropping faster than a led balloon.

The bettors see that we were dogs in our first two games and put money on us.

No one in the east coast time zone has seen us play. How can they make accurate odds?

East coast wise guys make the line and the west coast money moves it, right?

It seems like every year we have this exact thread about the AFA game, with the prevailing thought that we'll handle them easily. We're 3-5 against them since joining the MW. I expect this to be a tough game. Definitely our toughest opponent yet.