1. SEC admits OU and UT as members starting in 2025. Not sure on the timing of this, as they realistically don't have to vote on it immediately. Maybe sometime in 2021, but I wouldn't be surprised if it went until early 2022.

2. The Big XII, looking to protect its status as one of the P5, will replace OU and UT with UCF, Cincinnati, Houston, and SMU.

3. The Pac-12, desperately needing to bolster it's status among the P5, will steal away Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU, and Texas Tech.

4. The Big XII will directly replace those four teams with BYU, Boise State, Tulsa, and Memphis.

5. The American and Mountain West will combine for a 16-team super-G5 that includes:

SDSU, Fresno, SJSU, Nevada, UNLV, Wyoming, USU, New Mexico, Colorado State, Air Force, Navy, ECU, Temple, USF, Tulane, and Hawaii.

6. IDK maybe more nonsense as the Big 10 looks to become the Big 16 (but still be called the Big 10).

I just can't see the PAC adding B-12 schools, doesn't make sense, they are in no danger of losing P5 status. BUUUT money could be the factor. Texas Christian? Baylor? To the PAC? NO never/not going to happen. At best I could see them adding OSU and maybe Houston (market share is everything).

B1G goes after Kansas and Iowa State, calls it a day.

B12 backfills from AAC exclusively (maybe YBU?), calls it a day.

The AAC/MWC super conference that has been talked about before is still a possibility. I have to wonder if this conference could get Gonzaga to finally join since we'd already have Wichita State?

That's where I think this is heading.

I agree except I don't see the big 12 taking smu or tulsa. Though I think it's possible that they come to the MWC after the AAC is gutted.

I also don't see the MWC joining the AAC. After the top teams leave the AAC there is not enough value there to get that spread out. Like I said I could see some western AAC teams coming to the MWC. Then I see the MWC and AAC taking the top teams from the lower 3 conferences.

Then one of the sunbelt, Mac and conference USA goes for as they condense. Turning the G5 into G4, but really still G5 because the BIG12 will now be a G5.

I saw that Ohio State’s AD retweeted a tweet that said the B1G makes loads of money and doesn’t need to add any schools.

BLUERUFiO wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 11:07 am

I saw that Ohio State’s AD retweeted a tweet that said the B1G makes loads of money and doesn’t need to add any schools.

That's a way of throwing off the scent because Ohio State is joining the SEC

BYU drops football and creates “general conference” church ball league.
SMU
BYU
Baylor
TCU
Gonzaga
St Mary’s
Duke
Pepperdine
BYU- Idaho
BYU- Hawaii
Grand Canyon
Some others I dunno..


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Well I think we know where WV wants to end up in all of this:



This smacks of some desperation, but one has to think that Texas and Oklahoma are trying hard to kill off the Big-12 to avoid paying exit fees, hoping that the PAC and the B1G would gobble up enough schools to sink the conference? WV could be screwed, relegated to joining the AAC.

B12 is gonzo. They lost 75% of their media value with Texas and OU leaving the conference, you can't replace that with any of the available options. IF the PAC expands.... I see them picking up something like Ok St. and TCU and maaaaayyyybbe Baylor.

ratofallaggies wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 11:59 am

B12 is gonzo

Texas and Ok played this like champs, if they El Sinko the B-12, with enough schools bailing out, there won't be any exit fees owed.

Honestly, I think the Big Ten(Fourteen) goes all out and invites USC and Washington and effectively kills the PAC-12. The ACC adds West Virginia and (finally) convinces Notre Dame to join a conference.

ViAggie wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 11:01 am

I just can't see the PAC adding B-12 schools, doesn't make sense, they are in no danger of losing P5 status. BUUUT money could be the factor. Texas Christian? Baylor? To the PAC? NO never/not going to happen. At best I could see them adding OSU and maybe Houston (market share is everything).

B1G goes after Kansas and Iowa State, calls it a day.

B12 backfills from AAC exclusively (maybe YBU?), calls it a day.

The AAC/MWC super conference that has been talked about before is still a possibility. I have to wonder if this conference could get Gonzaga to finally join since we'd already have Wichita State?

That's where I think this is heading.

The Pac-12 will want to add Big 12 schools because they reside in the most talent-laden state in the entire country for football players, have hundreds of thousands of alumni in two of the five largest metro areas in the country, and (last but not least) consolidate power with the geographically closest P5 programs for when everyone goes to 16-team megaconferences.

Prediction = punt

I predict one of three things depending on how the math works out. I rank the most probable outcome in my opinion.
1. Big 12 replaces departures with 2 AAC teams, AAC backfills regionally.
2. Big 12 replaces departures to get back up to 12 adding four schools from AAC because they see West Virginia and Kansas looking for new homes. Possibly adding BYU as a football only might happen to backfill for departing schools after the second round of departures from the Big12. I don’t see poaching happening to the Mountain West (the $$$ isn’t there).
3. Big 12 adds BYU as a football only and has 9 schools. End of realignment.

Big 12 adds Boise, Cincinnati, provo, and UCF.

MWC adds Houston, SMU, and Wichita State.

AAC grabs some C-USA and Sun Belt teams.

All I see are bad choices.

The best move for individual B12 schools is to find another P5 conference. The remaining schools next best move is to grab G5 schools to join the B12. The last option is for the leftover B12 schools to join G5 conferences, which is the worst option.

Anyone know at what number of teams lost do the contracts the Big 12 have get voided and when departing teams don't have to pay an exit fee?

ustate98 wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 1:45 pm

Anyone know at what number of teams lost do the contracts the Big 12 have get voided and when departing teams don't have to pay an exit fee?

OU and Texas need 2 more schools to bail for the conference to automatically dissolve, along with the exit fees.

BLUERUFiO wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 1:47 pm

ustate98 wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 1:45 pm

Anyone know at what number of teams lost do the contracts the Big 12 have get voided and when departing teams don't have to pay an exit fee?

OU and Texas need 2 more schools to bail for the conference to automatically dissolve, along with the exit fees.

I think at least two more will bail to the Big10 so I guess it's goodbye Big12.

I've seen this image floating around the past couple of days. I don't know if Notre Dame would ever consider being a full time member of the ACC, but the other shifts seem feasible. To me, this scenario seems more likely than the BIG 12 being able to salvage a conference without its flagship members. Even if they could pull in Houston or other relevant AAC teams, I think the remaining B12 members would rather be courted by new power conferences.

The other things I like about this scenario are as follows:
*Leaves current MWC membership in tact
*Gives the MWC an opportunity to bring TCU back into the fold
*Leaves byu out in the cold

We all know USU has no shot at a power conference, so I'll root for any scenario that doesn't end up gutting our conference's already teetering ability to stay somewhat relevant.

Naked Bull Rider wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 2:06 pm

I've seen this image floating around the past couple of days. I don't know if Notre Dame would ever consider being a full time member of the ACC, but the other shifts seem feasible. To me, this scenario seems more likely than the BIG 12 being able to salvage a conference without its flagship members. Even if they could pull in Houston or other relevant AAC teams, I think the remaining B12 members would rather be courted by new power conferences.

The other things I like about this scenario are as follows:
*Leaves current MWC membership in tact
*Gives the MWC an opportunity to bring TCU back into the fold
*Leaves byu out in the cold

We all know USU has no shot at a power conference, so I'll root for any scenario that doesn't end up gutting our conference's already teetering ability to stay somewhat relevant.

This would be great for us, no way Baylor ends up in the PAC 12, no way in hell, I think they'd go with Houston first, good market, upward trajectory. I think in this scenario, Baylor joins the Big East and parks FB in the AAC.

I think the best thing for college sports would be a system of promotion and relegation- but it'll never happen.

ustate98 wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 1:50 pm

BLUERUFiO wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 1:47 pm

ustate98 wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 1:45 pm

Anyone know at what number of teams lost do the contracts the Big 12 have get voided and when departing teams don't have to pay an exit fee?

OU and Texas need 2 more schools to bail for the conference to automatically dissolve, along with the exit fees.

I think at least two more will bail to the Big10 so I guess it's goodbye Big12.

The question is, is it instant as soon as 4 schools leave? What if they call Houston and Cincinnati (who both say yes before the question is finished) and offer them admission. Now they are only down 2. Or...they offer BYU a sweetheart deal. THey don't have any conference affiliation to deal with and could officially join tomorrow.

ViAggie wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 2:13 pm

Naked Bull Rider wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 2:06 pm

I've seen this image floating around the past couple of days. I don't know if Notre Dame would ever consider being a full time member of the ACC, but the other shifts seem feasible. To me, this scenario seems more likely than the BIG 12 being able to salvage a conference without its flagship members. Even if they could pull in Houston or other relevant AAC teams, I think the remaining B12 members would rather be courted by new power conferences.

The other things I like about this scenario are as follows:
*Leaves current MWC membership in tact
*Gives the MWC an opportunity to bring TCU back into the fold
*Leaves byu out in the cold

We all know USU has no shot at a power conference, so I'll root for any scenario that doesn't end up gutting our conference's already teetering ability to stay somewhat relevant.

This would be great for us, no way Baylor ends up in the PAC 12, no way in hell, I think they'd go with Houston first, good market, upward trajectory. I think in this scenario, Baylor joins the Big East and parks FB in the AAC.

I'd be pretty surprised if they took Texas Tech too (snotty PAC 12 academics and Lubbock *shudder*), except that it is the only one left other than TCU who doesn't have any alumni and delivers 0% of the Dallas TV market. TCU could help recruiting in the Dallas area though. .

Kansas State's AD says the Big-12 is looking to the East and to the South to fill in the gaps. Poor YBU, poor Bozo State, not even a sniff: https://247sports.com/college/kansas-st ... 2bB7XkPpG8

Behind the scenes, sources tell GoPowercat that Kansas State is working to preserve the Big 12 Conference through expansion, with schools such as Cincinnati, Memphis, Central Florida, and Houston being immediate targets.

If this happens not only are we safe, we're in a position to maybe poach some AAC Texas schools if we wanted them, we could soon start looking like the old WAC with SMU and Rice (poor UTEP).

ViAggie wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 3:16 pm

Kansas State's AD says the Big-12 is looking to the East and to the South to fill in the gaps. Poor YBU, poor Bozo State, not even a sniff: https://247sports.com/college/kansas-st ... 2bB7XkPpG8

Behind the scenes, sources tell GoPowercat that Kansas State is working to preserve the Big 12 Conference through expansion, with schools such as Cincinnati, Memphis, Central Florida, and Houston being immediate targets.

If this happens not only are we safe, we're in a position to maybe poach some AAC Texas schools if we wanted them, we could soon start looking like the old WAC with SMU and Rice (poor UTEP).

I've been reading some Big12 conference boards and some team pages from Big12 and most posters on those boards mention AAC teams while very few mention byu and MWC teams.

CaptainChaos wrote:I think the best thing for college sports would be a system of promotion and relegation- but it'll never happen.

I’ve toyed with that idea as well but don’t know how it would work. Every other year? Every single season? It’s so hard when every team in the country is essentially completely different personnel every 2-3 years


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3rdGenAggie wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 2:50 pm

ustate98 wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 1:50 pm

BLUERUFiO wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 1:47 pm

ustate98 wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 1:45 pm

Anyone know at what number of teams lost do the contracts the Big 12 have get voided and when departing teams don't have to pay an exit fee?

OU and Texas need 2 more schools to bail for the conference to automatically dissolve, along with the exit fees.

I think at least two more will bail to the Big10 so I guess it's goodbye Big12.

The question is, is it instant as soon as 4 schools leave? What if they call Houston and Cincinnati (who both say yes before the question is finished) and offer them admission. Now they are only down 2. Or...they offer BYU a sweetheart deal. THey don't have any conference affiliation to deal with and could officially join tomorrow.

Big 12 is done. They can invite those schools if they want, but not sure what the point of joining that conference would be. There's verbiage in their TV contract that if membership changes, the network can renegotiate. As stated, T and OU comprises 75% of the value for that conference..... any school that jumps there is making nothing more than a lateral move. They'll no longer be considered a power conference.

ratofallaggies wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 3:52 pm

3rdGenAggie wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 2:50 pm

ustate98 wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 1:50 pm

BLUERUFiO wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 1:47 pm

ustate98 wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 1:45 pm

Anyone know at what number of teams lost do the contracts the Big 12 have get voided and when departing teams don't have to pay an exit fee?

OU and Texas need 2 more schools to bail for the conference to automatically dissolve, along with the exit fees.

I think at least two more will bail to the Big10 so I guess it's goodbye Big12.

The question is, is it instant as soon as 4 schools leave? What if they call Houston and Cincinnati (who both say yes before the question is finished) and offer them admission. Now they are only down 2. Or...they offer BYU a sweetheart deal. THey don't have any conference affiliation to deal with and could officially join tomorrow.

Big 12 is done. They can invite those schools if they want, but not sure what the point of joining that conference would be. There's verbiage in their TV contract that if membership changes, the network can renegotiate. As stated, T and OU comprises 75% of the value for that conference..... any school that jumps there is making nothing more than a lateral move. They'll no longer be considered a power conference.

They'll try. Interesting side note, I did notice that Kansas makes the second highest amount in the Big 12 before Oklahoma, that was a surprise, Texas makes the most money in College FB, I thought it would be Bama but I was wrong. All of the Big 12 schools make way more money than even your top G5 schools, they'll be fine I think.

ratofallaggies wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 3:52 pm

3rdGenAggie wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 2:50 pm

ustate98 wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 1:50 pm

BLUERUFiO wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 1:47 pm

ustate98 wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 1:45 pm

Anyone know at what number of teams lost do the contracts the Big 12 have get voided and when departing teams don't have to pay an exit fee?

OU and Texas need 2 more schools to bail for the conference to automatically dissolve, along with the exit fees.

I think at least two more will bail to the Big10 so I guess it's goodbye Big12.

The question is, is it instant as soon as 4 schools leave? What if they call Houston and Cincinnati (who both say yes before the question is finished) and offer them admission. Now they are only down 2. Or...they offer BYU a sweetheart deal. THey don't have any conference affiliation to deal with and could officially join tomorrow.

Big 12 is done. They can invite those schools if they want, but not sure what the point of joining that conference would be. There's verbiage in their TV contract that if membership changes, the network can renegotiate. As stated, T and OU comprises 75% of the value for that conference..... any school that jumps there is making nothing more than a lateral move. They'll no longer be considered a power conference.

The Big 12 is still in a much stronger position than any of the G5 programs and believe every AAC and MW team would jump at an opportunity to join. I’m just hoping they look East, as Vi has been suggesting.

tysteve20 wrote: ↑

July 27th, 2021, 3:26 pm

CaptainChaos wrote:I think the best thing for college sports would be a system of promotion and relegation- but it'll never happen.

I’ve toyed with that idea as well but don’t know how it would work. Every other year? Every single season? It’s so hard when every team in the country is essentially completely different personnel every 2-3 years
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

They come out with rankings every year- I don't see how a relegation and promotion system would be much different. Essentially you are rewarded for your previous years work. Bowl teams get promoted others might get relegated.

At worst the B12 would be the strongest of the G6.

It will be interesting to see if they still give autobids to the top 6 conference champions or if the P4 limit it to 5 with these changes.