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Realignment Predictions
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Re: Realignment Predictions
If BYU were to be invited to the B12, do you think that could open the door to Gonzaga talking to the MWC again?
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Very interesting if true, and if it is, the MWC needs to try and get a couple of the BIG 12 teams while it’s imploding. You don’t want to get left behind while other G5 conferences get better.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
I think most of this will play out east of us. Realistically, if the Big 12 is backfilling, they'll be looking east, where the population is. If they survive, they'll be looking at Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, USF, and possibly Memphis. If the Big 12 implodes, the remaining schools will also be looking east, to the AAC, the ACC, and possibly the Big 10. We don't have the population base, and we're too far away. I think the PAC-12 and the MWC will be untouched.
Now, if this all happens, when the dust settles, no one is going to be looking to add a MWC school. That would be the perfect time to tell Boise that the free ride is over.
Now, if this all happens, when the dust settles, no one is going to be looking to add a MWC school. That would be the perfect time to tell Boise that the free ride is over.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Didn't that ship just sail again? I thought they recently renegotiated.LKGates wrote: ↑July 28th, 2021, 10:52 pmI think most of this will play out east of us. Realistically, if the Big 12 is backfilling, they'll be looking east, where the population is. If they survive, they'll be looking at Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, USF, and possibly Memphis. If the Big 12 implodes, the remaining schools will also be looking east, to the AAC, the ACC, and possibly the Big 10. We don't have the population base, and we're too far away. I think the PAC-12 and the MWC will be untouched.
Now, if this all happens, when the dust settles, no one is going to be looking to add a MWC school. That would be the perfect time to tell Boise that the free ride is over.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
It looks like the new deal, completed in early 2020, runs through 25/26. And it still has sweetheart provisions for Boise.CaptainChaos wrote: ↑July 29th, 2021, 8:09 amDidn't that ship just sail again? I thought they recently renegotiated.LKGates wrote: ↑July 28th, 2021, 10:52 pmI think most of this will play out east of us. Realistically, if the Big 12 is backfilling, they'll be looking east, where the population is. If they survive, they'll be looking at Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, USF, and possibly Memphis. If the Big 12 implodes, the remaining schools will also be looking east, to the AAC, the ACC, and possibly the Big 10. We don't have the population base, and we're too far away. I think the PAC-12 and the MWC will be untouched.
Now, if this all happens, when the dust settles, no one is going to be looking to add a MWC school. That would be the perfect time to tell Boise that the free ride is over.
https://www.sportspromedia.com/news/mou ... fox-sports
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Re: Realignment Predictions
I'm starting to think that YBU and Karl Benson somehow infuriated the AAC, if the Big 12 was smart they would immediately invite two AAC schools and kill the Project 2.0
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Why do they need to act so hastily though? They still get a pretty big piece of the pie and if the don't disband they will collect some pretty good exit fees. If they add teams they just have to split the piece further don't they? Or do they have to move quick to keep folks from jumping ship? I don't see anyone wanting to jump ship right away unless it was to go to the Big 10 or ACC. I don't see a big incentive to jump ship for the AAC- that door isn't closing is it?
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Re: Realignment Predictions
My guess is they need more than 8 members next year. I don’t believe for a second Texas and Oklahoma will be playing in the Big12 next year. I think that’s why ESPN is trying to break up the Big-12. Side note, I saw the SEC pod names were leaked.CaptainChaos wrote: ↑July 29th, 2021, 9:19 amWhy do they need to act so hastily though? They still get a pretty big piece of the pie and if the don't disband they will collect some pretty good exit fees. If they add teams they just have to split the piece further don't they? Or do they have to move quick to keep folks from jumping ship? I don't see anyone wanting to jump ship right away unless it was to go to the Big 10 or ACC. I don't see a big incentive to jump ship for the AAC- that door isn't closing is it?
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Re: Realignment Predictions
If I'm a big-time P5 school, this is what I'm thinking:
I would talk to fellow P5 power-brokers and take my football program out of the NCAA. The NFL and NBA have enormous TV contracts because they have one TV contract for the whole league. (Teams can bid out local broadcasting rights beyond that, except where they conflict with the primary contract.) The money is there for the NBA and NFL because neither has any real competition. Currently for the P5, if Fox doesn't want to pay the SEC what the SEC is demanding, they can just go to the ACC and get a product that is not quite but almost as good. Make a monopoly and you make all the money.
There are 65 P5 schools, a solid half of which are just riding coat-tails. The top 30-40 should just take their football programs out of the NCAA. The NCAA might threaten to kick the schools' other sports out, but they wouldn't actually do it. That would hurt the NCAA more than it would hurt the P5 schools. And even if they did, who cares? In that unlikely case, just take all your programs out of the NCAA, run your track team against the track team of the others that also left the the NCAA and install some solid gold ice baths with what is leftover.
March Madness is far and away the biggest stick the NCAA wields, but I firmly believe they would still allow those schools to participate in it. If they didn't it would be a shell of what it is now (and if not, who really cares - play basketball on courts with golden rims and host your own tournament).
All this to say, in a power struggle, the NCAA would hold little to no leverage against a coalition of the biggest P5 schools. Politics and lawmakers are the only possible thing that could stop this from happening if the Alabamas, Ohio States, Oklahomas and USCs of the world decided to do it. It's not illegal to destroy something by leaving it. See the WAC for proof of that.
I would talk to fellow P5 power-brokers and take my football program out of the NCAA. The NFL and NBA have enormous TV contracts because they have one TV contract for the whole league. (Teams can bid out local broadcasting rights beyond that, except where they conflict with the primary contract.) The money is there for the NBA and NFL because neither has any real competition. Currently for the P5, if Fox doesn't want to pay the SEC what the SEC is demanding, they can just go to the ACC and get a product that is not quite but almost as good. Make a monopoly and you make all the money.
There are 65 P5 schools, a solid half of which are just riding coat-tails. The top 30-40 should just take their football programs out of the NCAA. The NCAA might threaten to kick the schools' other sports out, but they wouldn't actually do it. That would hurt the NCAA more than it would hurt the P5 schools. And even if they did, who cares? In that unlikely case, just take all your programs out of the NCAA, run your track team against the track team of the others that also left the the NCAA and install some solid gold ice baths with what is leftover.
March Madness is far and away the biggest stick the NCAA wields, but I firmly believe they would still allow those schools to participate in it. If they didn't it would be a shell of what it is now (and if not, who really cares - play basketball on courts with golden rims and host your own tournament).
All this to say, in a power struggle, the NCAA would hold little to no leverage against a coalition of the biggest P5 schools. Politics and lawmakers are the only possible thing that could stop this from happening if the Alabamas, Ohio States, Oklahomas and USCs of the world decided to do it. It's not illegal to destroy something by leaving it. See the WAC for proof of that.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Well this is troubling, I think what we're seeing here is the beginning of the SEC Minor League Sports Athletics Association
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Re: Realignment Predictions
How much do local markets really matter? Probably a lot, because it’s the conventional wisdom from people far more knowledgeable than me..
It just seems to me that it’s better to play in a small town constantly on ESPN2 as opposed to being in a major market that takes 2nd fiddle.
It’s not the Tuscaloosa media market that drives Alabama’s value. In my opinion it’s certainly not the Elkhart/South Bend/Michiana region making Notre Dame worth so much. It’s that every Saturday I could see Notre Dame on my tv on NBC.
It just seems to me that it’s better to play in a small town constantly on ESPN2 as opposed to being in a major market that takes 2nd fiddle.
It’s not the Tuscaloosa media market that drives Alabama’s value. In my opinion it’s certainly not the Elkhart/South Bend/Michiana region making Notre Dame worth so much. It’s that every Saturday I could see Notre Dame on my tv on NBC.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
My bold move cotton prediction- the aac either stays at 7 or folds. Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, Memphis to Big 12.
I can’t see Boise, BYU or SDSU being motivated to join the remaining 7 teams. The Big 12 would be wise to feast on the AAC as the AAC was the bigger competitor- plus the pettiness of “you try to end us, we end you” would be awesome.
I can’t see Boise, BYU or SDSU being motivated to join the remaining 7 teams. The Big 12 would be wise to feast on the AAC as the AAC was the bigger competitor- plus the pettiness of “you try to end us, we end you” would be awesome.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Never going to happen, it's a food chain issue, the AAC will simply backfill from Conf. USA, Conf USA will backfill from the Sun Belt, the Sun Belt will beg more and more FCS schools in the south to jump ship to save their conference, either way NMSU finally finds a home for FB.Imakeitrain wrote: ↑July 29th, 2021, 6:06 pmMy bold move cotton prediction- the aac either stays at 7 or folds. Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, Memphis to Big 12.
I can’t see Boise, BYU or SDSU being motivated to join the remaining 7 teams. The Big 12 would be wise to feast on the AAC as the AAC was the bigger competitor- plus the pettiness of “you try to end us, we end you” would be awesome.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
I mean maybe they’ll do that. I don’t think they’re that interested in some. LA Tech, Liberty, ODU, ASU (AR), Coastal all may have a shot but a lot of those schools are barely fbs themselves.ViAggie wrote: ↑July 30th, 2021, 8:45 amNever going to happen, it's a food chain issue, the AAC will simply backfill from Conf. USA, Conf USA will backfill from the Sun Belt, the Sun Belt will beg more and more FCS schools in the south to jump ship to save their conference, either way NMSU finally finds a home for FB.Imakeitrain wrote: ↑July 29th, 2021, 6:06 pmMy bold move cotton prediction- the aac either stays at 7 or folds. Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, Memphis to Big 12.
I can’t see Boise, BYU or SDSU being motivated to join the remaining 7 teams. The Big 12 would be wise to feast on the AAC as the AAC was the bigger competitor- plus the pettiness of “you try to end us, we end you” would be awesome.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Add in Sun Belt Champs and YBU beaters, the school no one even knew had a FB team, Coastal Carolina into the AAC mix.Imakeitrain wrote: ↑July 30th, 2021, 11:11 amI mean maybe they’ll do that. I don’t think they’re that interested in some. LA Tech, Liberty, ODU, ASU (AR), Coastal all may have a shot but a lot of those schools are barely fbs themselves.ViAggie wrote: ↑July 30th, 2021, 8:45 amNever going to happen, it's a food chain issue, the AAC will simply backfill from Conf. USA, Conf USA will backfill from the Sun Belt, the Sun Belt will beg more and more FCS schools in the south to jump ship to save their conference, either way NMSU finally finds a home for FB.Imakeitrain wrote: ↑July 29th, 2021, 6:06 pmMy bold move cotton prediction- the aac either stays at 7 or folds. Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, Memphis to Big 12.
I can’t see Boise, BYU or SDSU being motivated to join the remaining 7 teams. The Big 12 would be wise to feast on the AAC as the AAC was the bigger competitor- plus the pettiness of “you try to end us, we end you” would be awesome.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
In that scenario, I think the risk is that they would have to fold if they lost many more teams. Maybe they don't add a bunch of replacements, but I'd be anything they'd add a couple for stability.Imakeitrain wrote: ↑July 30th, 2021, 11:11 amI mean maybe they’ll do that. I don’t think they’re that interested in some. LA Tech, Liberty, ODU, ASU (AR), Coastal all may have a shot but a lot of those schools are barely fbs themselves.ViAggie wrote: ↑July 30th, 2021, 8:45 amNever going to happen, it's a food chain issue, the AAC will simply backfill from Conf. USA, Conf USA will backfill from the Sun Belt, the Sun Belt will beg more and more FCS schools in the south to jump ship to save their conference, either way NMSU finally finds a home for FB.Imakeitrain wrote: ↑July 29th, 2021, 6:06 pmMy bold move cotton prediction- the aac either stays at 7 or folds. Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, Memphis to Big 12.
I can’t see Boise, BYU or SDSU being motivated to join the remaining 7 teams. The Big 12 would be wise to feast on the AAC as the AAC was the bigger competitor- plus the pettiness of “you try to end us, we end you” would be awesome.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/oklahoma-texas-sec-2025
The Southeastern Conference (SEC) announced Friday it has granted membership to the University of Oklahoma and the University of Texas at Austin starting on June 1, 2025.
do we really think it will be that long?
The Southeastern Conference (SEC) announced Friday it has granted membership to the University of Oklahoma and the University of Texas at Austin starting on June 1, 2025.
do we really think it will be that long?
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Re: Realignment Predictions
When did they say they would be out of the big 12? Maybe they haven’t yet...pcaggie wrote: ↑July 30th, 2021, 3:56 pmhttps://www.foxnews.com/sports/oklahoma-texas-sec-2025
The Southeastern Conference (SEC) announced Friday it has granted membership to the University of Oklahoma and the University of Texas at Austin starting on June 1, 2025.
do we really think it will be that long?
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Re: Realignment Predictions
In all honesty, I can't see Provo ever getting a whiff of the PAC12 membership with their lack of Sunday play, open discrimination against LGBTQ+ folks, their penchant for gender inequality (in the religion as well as tenured faculty stats), their history of blatant racism and their practice of teaching students to trust emotion/confirmation bias over more rational science/research disciplines.Yossarian wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 6:07 pmI still think that BYU is a much better and more appealing target for the Big XII than the ones you put down. With a national following, a large (we can only assume) budget, and strong academics, I think BYU, as an expansion target, has more to offer the Big XII than the negatives they bring. I would think the Big XII would like to get Colorado back, too, but they may take either Boise State or Colorado State instead.
Notre Dame and BYU have to be the most appealing of the non-P5 schools when expansions start happening.
The nonagenarian lead church may try to buy or persuade their way in, but my bet would be that pressure from progressive alumni bases and leadership attached to the established schools would carry the day.
The leftovers from the BIG 12 have a couple of religious schools that are a closer match mindset-wise to BYU/LDS discriminatory paradigms, so that conference is a slightly better match. That said, all but 2 are public institutions that may bounce BYU from the conference realignment equation for the same reasons stated above.
Don't get me wrong, the Y can do whatever they want within the laws and rules of the organizing bodies -- but opponents, schools and conferences are under no moral or financial obligation to partner with or even schedule them. In the last decade, ESPN has given BYU a false sense of it's importance on the college football landscape.
In a perfect world, the only D1 schools that would ever even consider scheduling the Zoo at all would be: Liberty, TCU, Baylor, Tulsa, SMU, Notre Dame, and Boston College. Notice, USU isn't on my list.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Well said! Also worth pointing that they (unlike Utah) have not actually earned a spot in a P5 conference. What have they done on the field in the last 20 years that proves they belong in a better conference?1TruAggie wrote: ↑July 30th, 2021, 6:10 pmIn all honesty, I can't see Provo ever getting a whiff of the PAC12 membership with their lack of Sunday play, open discrimination against LGBTQ+ folks, their penchant for gender inequality (in the religion as well as tenured faculty stats), their history of blatant racism and their practice of teaching students to trust emotion/confirmation bias over more rational science/research disciplines.Yossarian wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 6:07 pmI still think that BYU is a much better and more appealing target for the Big XII than the ones you put down. With a national following, a large (we can only assume) budget, and strong academics, I think BYU, as an expansion target, has more to offer the Big XII than the negatives they bring. I would think the Big XII would like to get Colorado back, too, but they may take either Boise State or Colorado State instead.
Notre Dame and BYU have to be the most appealing of the non-P5 schools when expansions start happening.
The nonagenarian lead church may try to buy or persuade their way in, but my bet would be that pressure from progressive alumni bases and leadership attached to the established schools would carry the day.
The leftovers from the BIG 12 have a couple of religious schools that are a closer match mindset-wise to BYU/LDS discriminatory paradigms, so that conference is a slightly better match. That said, all but 2 are public institutions that may bounce BYU from the conference realignment equation for the same reasons stated above.
Don't get me wrong, the Y can do whatever they want within the laws and rules of the organizing bodies -- but opponents, schools and conferences are under no moral or financial obligation to partner with or even schedule them. In the last decade, ESPN has given BYU a false sense of it's importance on the college football landscape.
In a perfect world, the only D1 schools that would ever even consider scheduling the Zoo at all would be: Liberty, TCU, Baylor, Tulsa, SMU, Notre Dame, and Boston College. Notice, USU isn't on my list.
I bring up those same points on Twitter every day when KSL spits out another garbage article pontificating about byu going to the Pac12/Big12; they and everyone in Provo are delusional!
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Re: Realignment Predictions
OrangeCountyAggie wrote: ↑July 30th, 2021, 11:20 pmWell said! Also worth pointing that they (unlike Utah) have not actually earned a spot in a P5 conference. What have they done on the field in the last 20 years that proves they belong in a better conference?1TruAggie wrote: ↑July 30th, 2021, 6:10 pmIn all honesty, I can't see Provo ever getting a whiff of the PAC12 membership with their lack of Sunday play, open discrimination against LGBTQ+ folks, their penchant for gender inequality (in the religion as well as tenured faculty stats), their history of blatant racism and their practice of teaching students to trust emotion/confirmation bias over more rational science/research disciplines.Yossarian wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 6:07 pmI still think that BYU is a much better and more appealing target for the Big XII than the ones you put down. With a national following, a large (we can only assume) budget, and strong academics, I think BYU, as an expansion target, has more to offer the Big XII than the negatives they bring. I would think the Big XII would like to get Colorado back, too, but they may take either Boise State or Colorado State instead.
Notre Dame and BYU have to be the most appealing of the non-P5 schools when expansions start happening.
The nonagenarian lead church may try to buy or persuade their way in, but my bet would be that pressure from progressive alumni bases and leadership attached to the established schools would carry the day.
The leftovers from the BIG 12 have a couple of religious schools that are a closer match mindset-wise to BYU/LDS discriminatory paradigms, so that conference is a slightly better match. That said, all but 2 are public institutions that may bounce BYU from the conference realignment equation for the same reasons stated above.
Don't get me wrong, the Y can do whatever they want within the laws and rules of the organizing bodies -- but opponents, schools and conferences are under no moral or financial obligation to partner with or even schedule them. In the last decade, ESPN has given BYU a false sense of it's importance on the college football landscape.
In a perfect world, the only D1 schools that would ever even consider scheduling the Zoo at all would be: Liberty, TCU, Baylor, Tulsa, SMU, Notre Dame, and Boston College. Notice, USU isn't on my list.
I bring up those same points on Twitter every day when KSL spits out another garbage article pontificating about byu going to the Pac12/Big12; they and everyone in Provo are delusional!
I disagree regarding the Big 12. Here is my prediction:
The Big 12 adds UCF, Cincinnati, BYU, and Houston.
*this assumes B1G doesn’t poach some of the PAC 12.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Pretty sure this would be a good recruiting pitch for BYU to be included in a conference
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Re: Realignment Predictions
This should be worth at least a one week ban, mods. Pretty sure my computer has a virus now.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
A sports fan event from a different planet.
I think I'll go slam my hand in the doorjamb of my car, just to take away some of the pain from this hack. May even slam my hand a couple of times just to redirect my focus. And then there are other body parts to consider, just to ease the pain.
I think I'll go slam my hand in the doorjamb of my car, just to take away some of the pain from this hack. May even slam my hand a couple of times just to redirect my focus. And then there are other body parts to consider, just to ease the pain.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Cougars are out .YoungBloodAggie wrote: ↑July 31st, 2021, 7:08 pmThis should be worth at least a one week ban, mods. Pretty sure my computer has a virus now.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Here's another classic.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
I'm still trying to learn the dance moves to the "Everybody Dance Now'" flashmob that Eliza and Weston taught:
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Where would this leave TCU? Back home to the MW?Naked Bull Rider wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 2:06 pmI've seen this image floating around the past couple of days. I don't know if Notre Dame would ever consider being a full time member of the ACC, but the other shifts seem feasible. To me, this scenario seems more likely than the BIG 12 being able to salvage a conference without its flagship members. Even if they could pull in Houston or other relevant AAC teams, I think the remaining B12 members would rather be courted by new power conferences.
The other things I like about this scenario are as follows:
*Leaves current MWC membership in tact
*Gives the MWC an opportunity to bring TCU back into the fold
*Leaves byu out in the cold
We all know USU has no shot at a power conference, so I'll root for any scenario that doesn't end up gutting our conference's already teetering ability to stay somewhat relevant.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Sounds good to me.918AGG wrote: ↑August 3rd, 2021, 12:06 pmWhere would this leave TCU? Back home to the MW?Naked Bull Rider wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 2:06 pmI've seen this image floating around the past couple of days. I don't know if Notre Dame would ever consider being a full time member of the ACC, but the other shifts seem feasible. To me, this scenario seems more likely than the BIG 12 being able to salvage a conference without its flagship members. Even if they could pull in Houston or other relevant AAC teams, I think the remaining B12 members would rather be courted by new power conferences.
The other things I like about this scenario are as follows:
*Leaves current MWC membership in tact
*Gives the MWC an opportunity to bring TCU back into the fold
*Leaves byu out in the cold
We all know USU has no shot at a power conference, so I'll root for any scenario that doesn't end up gutting our conference's already teetering ability to stay somewhat relevant.
- ViAggie
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Neither Baylor nor TCU will ever get invited to the PAC, not going to happen ever. See my post about school names not getting invited to join the PAC, they include any school that starts with a B, any school with the word "Christian" in the title, and an school that has a City in its name.aggies22 wrote: ↑August 3rd, 2021, 2:14 pmSounds good to me.918AGG wrote: ↑August 3rd, 2021, 12:06 pmWhere would this leave TCU? Back home to the MW?Naked Bull Rider wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 2:06 pmI've seen this image floating around the past couple of days. I don't know if Notre Dame would ever consider being a full time member of the ACC, but the other shifts seem feasible. To me, this scenario seems more likely than the BIG 12 being able to salvage a conference without its flagship members. Even if they could pull in Houston or other relevant AAC teams, I think the remaining B12 members would rather be courted by new power conferences.
The other things I like about this scenario are as follows:
*Leaves current MWC membership in tact
*Gives the MWC an opportunity to bring TCU back into the fold
*Leaves byu out in the cold
We all know USU has no shot at a power conference, so I'll root for any scenario that doesn't end up gutting our conference's already teetering ability to stay somewhat relevant.
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- aggies22 • AggieFBObsession
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Who would you suggest they take if they don't take Baylor?ViAggie wrote: ↑August 3rd, 2021, 3:32 pmNeither Baylor nor TCU will ever get invited to the PAC, not going to happen ever. See my post about school names not getting invited to join the PAC, they include any school that starts with a B, any school with the word "Christian" in the title, and an school that has a City in its name.aggies22 wrote: ↑August 3rd, 2021, 2:14 pmSounds good to me.918AGG wrote: ↑August 3rd, 2021, 12:06 pmWhere would this leave TCU? Back home to the MW?Naked Bull Rider wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 2:06 pmI've seen this image floating around the past couple of days. I don't know if Notre Dame would ever consider being a full time member of the ACC, but the other shifts seem feasible. To me, this scenario seems more likely than the BIG 12 being able to salvage a conference without its flagship members. Even if they could pull in Houston or other relevant AAC teams, I think the remaining B12 members would rather be courted by new power conferences.
The other things I like about this scenario are as follows:
*Leaves current MWC membership in tact
*Gives the MWC an opportunity to bring TCU back into the fold
*Leaves byu out in the cold
We all know USU has no shot at a power conference, so I'll root for any scenario that doesn't end up gutting our conference's already teetering ability to stay somewhat relevant.
Last edited by aggies22 on August 3rd, 2021, 4:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.