Aggies picked to finish 5th in the Division

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Re: Aggies picked to finish 5th in the Division

Post by USUaggie » July 27th, 2021, 12:01 pm

BigBlueDart wrote:
July 27th, 2021, 11:49 am
USUaggie wrote:
July 23rd, 2021, 5:36 pm
Where do you think we would be picked if the 2020 season never happened. We were down from a great season in 2019, but still went to a bowl. We change coaching staffs. We lose Love and have Bonner transferring in. We have all the other losses and additions to personnel.

Where do we get picked?
Well, going into the 2020 season we were picked 4th in the division.

https://themw.com/news/2020/7/21/boise- ... itles.aspx
My question is, after a great 2018 season and a mediocre 2019 season where we still go to a bowl, compare what we lost and gained in personnel and coaches to where we are today. For example Aggie22's position breakdowns look at 2019 compared to 2021. I think that perspective is why a lot of us closer to the program than the national and regional prognosticators and Vegas bookies think we will be much better than expected this year.
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Re: Aggies picked to finish 5th in the Division

Post by Full » August 9th, 2021, 9:38 pm

Full wrote:
July 21st, 2021, 11:09 pm

My ranking of teams -

Probable losses:

Washington State - They have P5 recruiting and win at home. They compete with most teams in the PAC-12 and I expect them to come out improved over last year with an offseason with the new head coach. However, the toughest game on the schedule is usually a top 15 program. This year the most difficult game on the schedule features a team with some flaws and the potential for an upset if USU can win the turnover battle. I don't think this game will cause the injury report to expand like most money games in the past.

San Jose State - The defending Mountain West Champs have earned the right to be here (although I think Nevada will be better). They kept their coach and are playing with a lot of confidence after winning every regular season game last season with only a loss to Ball State in their bowl game, in a bowl game that saw many players out for the final game of the season.

Boise State - Even with a new coach I expect Boise will keep winning with their talented recruiting classes every season and lots of retuning starters. They have two QB's who would start for most MW teams. The new coach might finally be the one that fails , but I don't expect that to be the case.

BYU - I don't know what to expect, but with the amount of production lost I think they fall behind Boise but should still be able to beat USU. Any team on the schedule is beatable, and BYU has a lot of questions they will have answered after playing three PAS-12 South teams and USF. It's a rivalry game in Logan, so anything can happen.

Wyoming - They return a bunch of opt outs and players that had breakout seasons in 2021. The defense will keep them in every game. Their running game should be good, but Sean Chambers needs to get better for the offense to win games.

Air Force - Air Force this season, like every season has a lot of questions. However, they have proven that they will play their style of football at a high level every year.

Toss-up:

Hawaii - I'm not sure Todd Graham promoting his son to Offensive Coordinator is a good hire or not. I do know that they have a really good secondary but a suspect defensive line. If USU can run the ball, it could be trouble for a Hawaii defense that returns much of the same team that struggled last season.

Probable Wins:

New Mexico - This was a win last year, and while I think both teams will be improved with an offseason, I don't think they will improve enough.

Colorado State - Their best players are receivers, and slated QB1 Todd Centeio completed 38.9% of his 36 pass attempts last season as a backup to Patrick O'Brien who left for the transfer portal. They might need a few recruiting cycles to build the offense the way Addazio want to play, because it's still Bobo's players on the roster. They also want to run the ball, but only averaged 3.0 yards per carry last season. On special teams, Savon Scarver could have a great day if they kick to him. They have a punter in Stonehouse that is so good, he outkicks the coverage and special teams was allowing nice returns far to often.

UNLV - They are not good yet. Recruiting has been good, but it will take time before they are able to build the team.

North Dakota - FCS, and although they are a good FCS team, but still start with less scholarships. I don't see an embarrassing loss here.

New Mexico State - They got blown out by Tarleton State and almost lost to Dixie State just four months ago. They are the favorite for worst FBS team, and the only thing that scares me is their motivation will be high just to get a win.
I though the schedule sets up nicely for bowl eligibility. Now, because if I'm going to be called crazy for predicting a bowl game, I'll go to my crazy place and tell you my reason we'll see the Aggies in the NY6 game.

Washington State - Rolo is a distraction. After punishing players for sitting out last season in the face of all the uncertainty created by COVID, he is choosing not to get vaccinated in the face of public outcry and far less uncertainty than the players faced last season. He should have learned from Mike Leach, when his act eventually didn't sit well. Also, the offense isn't good enough to offset the 300+ yards passing they allow per game. USU rolls with an air attack that gives us high hopes for the season.

North Dakota - FCS, enough said.

Air Force - USU is able to take advantage of their extra day of preparation and is ready for what Air Force does. Air Force's rebuilt offensive line isn't any better than last year and their red zone struggles carry over into the early part of the 2021 season. Air Force falls back to a rebuilding year with a 5-7 record, USU keeps rolling.

Boise State - A new coach who is changing the offense into the same offense every team runs (up-tempo, aggressive, explosive, limiting defensive substitution, faster). More COVID issues cutting the preseason short for a new coach. It turns ugly after a team that expects to play for NY6 bowl starts 1-2 with losses to UCF and Oklahoma State. Fortunately for the Aggies the Broncos can't get it sorted out until after the bye week. Boise State fans are trending along with the hashtag #fireAvalos

BYU - BYU lost depth all over the field. They had the most players drafted since 2002 losing the number 2 pick in the NFL Draft along with four more player. In a year whith super seniors and low roster turnover, BYU will need to reload fast as they take on three PAC-12 south schools to start the season (who had very little roster turnover with the shortened season last year in the PAC). BYU, of course still has a QB room filled with NFL talent, just like in 2017 when QB Tanner Mangum won the preseason Heisman. They also lost their anchor on the defensive line to the NFL. Ultimately the hype from the 2020 season doesn't live up to expectations in 2021, and Aaron Roderick as OC gets the Ty Detmer treatment. Sitake is from the Whittingham coaching tree.

UNLV - They are not good, and the coach who's offense was stagnant, even with Justin Herbert at quarterback isn't the solution. Allegiant Stadium isn't the Rebels home, as announced today by the UNLV games being moved up to allow for more time to prep the stadium for the NFL team. The rebels claim their preseason rankings of last in the West Division with the help of USU.

Colorado State - Addazio is not the dude. He's trying to turn a roster that was built on passing into his offense focused on the running attack. They may want to run the ball, but a 3 yards per carry average again leads to another disappointing season for the Rams. USU celebrates Homecoming.

Hawaii - Todd Graham doesn't have the high powered offense that has carried good Hawaii teams. Promoting his son as OC combined with a lack of offensive production makes the problem worse in year two than year one. USU runs the ball over Hawaii as the Bow's struggle to stop the run continues on from last season.

New Mexico State - The Alabama of the bottom 10, no sense beating this dead horse.

San Jose State - It's San Jose, and while they were good last year it's a new year. Without oposing teams with depth chart issues due to COVID and new coaches having an offseason to install their systems San Jose finds it difficult to recreate their 2020 magic. USU gets the win against against a backdrop of an empty dirt field on the east side of the stadium.

Wyoming - Sean Chambers should not be your QB1, and coming off an injury in 2020 is less effective than 2019 when he completed less than half his passes. Stacking the box and dare the Pokes to throw allows the secondary to shine.

New Mexico - New Mexico is taking their time to build a roster that can compete, but at the end of the season with no hope for a bowl game there isn't anything left to play for for a team with three wins that has shown improvement.

Now for USU. 2020 was as bad as it could have been with a coaching change on week three and players who were unprepared both physically and mentally for the season. With the best offensive transfer (Logan Bonner) and defensive transfer (Justin Rice) in the conference USU comes out with an improved roster. Transfers also add experience and depth to both lines. On defense, the scheme and added depth have players filling gaps, shedding blocks, and tackling the ball carrier (rather than in the wrong spot, taking bad angles and missing on tackles). On offense the line returns Alfred Edwards, Jacob South, Demytrick Ali'ifua, and incoming transfers and players with experience filling in the depth chart. The new offense spreads the field sideline to sideline and keeps defenses from stacking the box, allowing for an improved rushing attack. The passing game also becomes effective as the offense becomes unpredictable as playmakers lead by Devin Thompkins are able to find a hole, catch a contested ball, or create separation. The emergence of an offense allows the defense to rest and regroup on the sidelines, which was on the field for long stretches in 2020 without any help from the offense. Don't forget Special Teams. Savon Scarver secures special team player of the year and after another All-American season returning kickoffs. Connor Coles also seizes the opportunity to kick more to beat out Talton for first team all-conference, while Stephen Kotsanlee is second team after getting beat by Ryan Stonehouse.



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Re: Aggies picked to finish 5th in the Division

Post by OrangeCountyAggie » August 10th, 2021, 11:00 am

Full wrote:
August 9th, 2021, 9:38 pm
Full wrote:
July 21st, 2021, 11:09 pm

My ranking of teams -

Probable losses:

Washington State - They have P5 recruiting and win at home. They compete with most teams in the PAC-12 and I expect them to come out improved over last year with an offseason with the new head coach. However, the toughest game on the schedule is usually a top 15 program. This year the most difficult game on the schedule features a team with some flaws and the potential for an upset if USU can win the turnover battle. I don't think this game will cause the injury report to expand like most money games in the past.

San Jose State - The defending Mountain West Champs have earned the right to be here (although I think Nevada will be better). They kept their coach and are playing with a lot of confidence after winning every regular season game last season with only a loss to Ball State in their bowl game, in a bowl game that saw many players out for the final game of the season.

Boise State - Even with a new coach I expect Boise will keep winning with their talented recruiting classes every season and lots of retuning starters. They have two QB's who would start for most MW teams. The new coach might finally be the one that fails , but I don't expect that to be the case.

BYU - I don't know what to expect, but with the amount of production lost I think they fall behind Boise but should still be able to beat USU. Any team on the schedule is beatable, and BYU has a lot of questions they will have answered after playing three PAS-12 South teams and USF. It's a rivalry game in Logan, so anything can happen.

Wyoming - They return a bunch of opt outs and players that had breakout seasons in 2021. The defense will keep them in every game. Their running game should be good, but Sean Chambers needs to get better for the offense to win games.

Air Force - Air Force this season, like every season has a lot of questions. However, they have proven that they will play their style of football at a high level every year.

Toss-up:

Hawaii - I'm not sure Todd Graham promoting his son to Offensive Coordinator is a good hire or not. I do know that they have a really good secondary but a suspect defensive line. If USU can run the ball, it could be trouble for a Hawaii defense that returns much of the same team that struggled last season.

Probable Wins:

New Mexico - This was a win last year, and while I think both teams will be improved with an offseason, I don't think they will improve enough.

Colorado State - Their best players are receivers, and slated QB1 Todd Centeio completed 38.9% of his 36 pass attempts last season as a backup to Patrick O'Brien who left for the transfer portal. They might need a few recruiting cycles to build the offense the way Addazio want to play, because it's still Bobo's players on the roster. They also want to run the ball, but only averaged 3.0 yards per carry last season. On special teams, Savon Scarver could have a great day if they kick to him. They have a punter in Stonehouse that is so good, he outkicks the coverage and special teams was allowing nice returns far to often.

UNLV - They are not good yet. Recruiting has been good, but it will take time before they are able to build the team.

North Dakota - FCS, and although they are a good FCS team, but still start with less scholarships. I don't see an embarrassing loss here.

New Mexico State - They got blown out by Tarleton State and almost lost to Dixie State just four months ago. They are the favorite for worst FBS team, and the only thing that scares me is their motivation will be high just to get a win.
I though the schedule sets up nicely for bowl eligibility. Now, because if I'm going to be called crazy for predicting a bowl game, I'll go to my crazy place and tell you my reason we'll see the Aggies in the NY6 game.

Washington State - Rolo is a distraction. After punishing players for sitting out last season in the face of all the uncertainty created by COVID, he is choosing not to get vaccinated in the face of public outcry and far less uncertainty than the players faced last season. He should have learned from Mike Leach, when his act eventually didn't sit well. Also, the offense isn't good enough to offset the 300+ yards passing they allow per game. USU rolls with an air attack that gives us high hopes for the season.

North Dakota - FCS, enough said.

Air Force - USU is able to take advantage of their extra day of preparation and is ready for what Air Force does. Air Force's rebuilt offensive line isn't any better than last year and their red zone struggles carry over into the early part of the 2021 season. Air Force falls back to a rebuilding year with a 5-7 record, USU keeps rolling.

Boise State - A new coach who is changing the offense into the same offense every team runs (up-tempo, aggressive, explosive, limiting defensive substitution, faster). More COVID issues cutting the preseason short for a new coach. It turns ugly after a team that expects to play for NY6 bowl starts 1-2 with losses to UCF and Oklahoma State. Fortunately for the Aggies the Broncos can't get it sorted out until after the bye week. Boise State fans are trending along with the hashtag #fireAvalos

BYU - BYU lost depth all over the field. They had the most players drafted since 2002 losing the number 2 pick in the NFL Draft along with four more player. In a year whith super seniors and low roster turnover, BYU will need to reload fast as they take on three PAC-12 south schools to start the season (who had very little roster turnover with the shortened season last year in the PAC). BYU, of course still has a QB room filled with NFL talent, just like in 2017 when QB Tanner Mangum won the preseason Heisman. They also lost their anchor on the defensive line to the NFL. Ultimately the hype from the 2020 season doesn't live up to expectations in 2021, and Aaron Roderick as OC gets the Ty Detmer treatment. Sitake is from the Whittingham coaching tree.

UNLV - They are not good, and the coach who's offense was stagnant, even with Justin Herbert at quarterback isn't the solution. Allegiant Stadium isn't the Rebels home, as announced today by the UNLV games being moved up to allow for more time to prep the stadium for the NFL team. The rebels claim their preseason rankings of last in the West Division with the help of USU.

Colorado State - Addazio is not the dude. He's trying to turn a roster that was built on passing into his offense focused on the running attack. They may want to run the ball, but a 3 yards per carry average again leads to another disappointing season for the Rams. USU celebrates Homecoming.

Hawaii - Todd Graham doesn't have the high powered offense that has carried good Hawaii teams. Promoting his son as OC combined with a lack of offensive production makes the problem worse in year two than year one. USU runs the ball over Hawaii as the Bow's struggle to stop the run continues on from last season.

New Mexico State - The Alabama of the bottom 10, no sense beating this dead horse.

San Jose State - It's San Jose, and while they were good last year it's a new year. Without oposing teams with depth chart issues due to COVID and new coaches having an offseason to install their systems San Jose finds it difficult to recreate their 2020 magic. USU gets the win against against a backdrop of an empty dirt field on the east side of the stadium.

Wyoming - Sean Chambers should not be your QB1, and coming off an injury in 2020 is less effective than 2019 when he completed less than half his passes. Stacking the box and dare the Pokes to throw allows the secondary to shine.

New Mexico - New Mexico is taking their time to build a roster that can compete, but at the end of the season with no hope for a bowl game there isn't anything left to play for for a team with three wins that has shown improvement.

Now for USU. 2020 was as bad as it could have been with a coaching change on week three and players who were unprepared both physically and mentally for the season. With the best offensive transfer (Logan Bonner) and defensive transfer (Justin Rice) in the conference USU comes out with an improved roster. Transfers also add experience and depth to both lines. On defense, the scheme and added depth have players filling gaps, shedding blocks, and tackling the ball carrier (rather than in the wrong spot, taking bad angles and missing on tackles). On offense the line returns Alfred Edwards, Jacob South, Demytrick Ali'ifua, and incoming transfers and players with experience filling in the depth chart. The new offense spreads the field sideline to sideline and keeps defenses from stacking the box, allowing for an improved rushing attack. The passing game also becomes effective as the offense becomes unpredictable as playmakers lead by Devin Thompkins are able to find a hole, catch a contested ball, or create separation. The emergence of an offense allows the defense to rest and regroup on the sidelines, which was on the field for long stretches in 2020 without any help from the offense. Don't forget Special Teams. Savon Scarver secures special team player of the year and after another All-American season returning kickoffs. Connor Coles also seizes the opportunity to kick more to beat out Talton for first team all-conference, while Stephen Kotsanlee is second team after getting beat by Ryan Stonehouse.
Although I doubt, we will go undefeated there isn't anyone on this schedule that is not beatable with a more disciplined, well-coached Aggie squad (except maybe Bosie?). That said as long as we win at least 6 or more games, with one of those being YBU, I'd count the year as a success!
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Re: Aggies picked to finish 5th in the Division

Post by AGGIEinIOWA » August 10th, 2021, 11:44 am

I know it’s a stretch goal but if we could make a bowl and beat at least one of WSU, Boise, or BYU in the process, I’d be giddy.
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