SP+ 2021 Preseason Rankings

thegreendalegelf · Post by **thegreendalegelf** » February 9th, 2021, 9:17 am

Here is how SP+ predicts us and our opponents.

First number is overal ranking out of 130. 2nd is SP+ overall score. 3rd is SP+ Offensive score (ranking). Then SP+ Defensive score (ranking)

USU - 121 - -17.5 20.1 (111) 37.6 (118)

@ Washington State - 46 - 7.8 40.4 (12) 32.6 (102)
North Dakota - N/A
BYU - 52 - 5.7 36.8 (24) 31.1 (90)
@ NMSU - 130 - -31.5 12.2 (130) 43.8 (129)
@ Air Force - 93 - -6.3 23.9 (92) 30.1 (86)
@ New Mexico - 124 - -20.0 22.8 (96) 42.8 (128)
@ San Jose State - 81 - -2.3 26.6 (84) 28.9 (78)
@ UNLV - 123 - -19.5 19.2 (114) 38.7 (121)
Boise State - 39 - 9.3 33.4 (39) 24.0 (50)
Colorado State - 96 - -7.2 21.5 (102) 28.6 (72)
Hawaii - 105 - -10.2 24.9 (91) 35.1 (111)
Wyoming - 80 - -2.1 20.7 (107) 22.8 (42)

So in short it expects our season to go like this (2.5 point advantage to the home team)

Loss to Washington State by 27.8
Win vs North Dakota
Loss to BYU by 20.7
Win vs NMSU by 11.5
Loss vs Air Force by 13.7
Tie vs New Mexico
Loss vs San Jose State by 17.7
Loss to UNLV by 0.5
Loss to Boise State by 24.3
Loss to Colorado State by 7.8
Loss to Hawaii by 4.8
Loss to Wyoming by 12.9

Going 2-9-1

We have 4 tossups (within 8 points) UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado State, and Hawaii. So with just a 1 point improvement in our ranking we go 4-8. A bowl game is within reach and I think a fair goal for the season. I think 8-4 is our ceiling.

thegreendalegelf · Post by **thegreendalegelf** » February 9th, 2021, 9:20 am

Also Bill C says that he included transfers in the calculation. But a lot of our transfers weren't producers at their past school but are expected to contribute here so they don't add much more than a hyped backup moving into the starting spot.

ViAggie · Post by **ViAggie** » February 9th, 2021, 10:15 am

Hawaii was pretty good last year, do we see any fall off? No idea about ND, will FCS have a spring season this year or not? It would be interesting to see how well they do. I'm scared about every game, this could be a rough year, but then again, Anderson could pull a Craig Smith?

JSHarvey · Post by **JSHarvey** » February 10th, 2021, 8:52 am

Given all the unknowns and last year's dismal performance I can see why they would rank us like that. I expect/hope we do much better than they predict.

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » February 10th, 2021, 9:08 am

Based on the dismal performance from last year and everything that went on I agree with those rankings. That being said I am confident that BA will get this team to perform better than what people outside the program expect. We brought in a lot of transfers with some of them not playing much at prior schools, but they fit the need of holes we had here. Excited for the season.

ViAggie · Post by **ViAggie** » February 10th, 2021, 11:40 am

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑
February 10th, 2021, 9:08 am
Based on the dismal performance from last year and everything that went on I agree with those rankings. That being said I am confident that BA will get this team to perform better than what people outside the program expect. We brought in a lot of transfers with some of them not playing much at prior schools, but they fit the need of holes we had here. Excited for the season.

I love the optimism!

Aggie84025 · Post by **Aggie84025** » February 10th, 2021, 11:46 am

ViAggie wrote: ↑
February 10th, 2021, 11:40 am

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑
February 10th, 2021, 9:08 am
Based on the dismal performance from last year and everything that went on I agree with those rankings. That being said I am confident that BA will get this team to perform better than what people outside the program expect. We brought in a lot of transfers with some of them not playing much at prior schools, but they fit the need of holes we had here. Excited for the season.
I love the optimism!

As an aggie fan without optimism there is not much to cheer for at times.

AussieAggieDad · Post by **AussieAggieDad** » March 2nd, 2021, 2:45 pm

ViAggie · Post by **ViAggie** » March 3rd, 2021, 9:19 am

I'd love to be 6-6 after the end of next season.

NVAggie · Post by **NVAggie** » March 3rd, 2021, 9:20 am

I think that is a fair assessment.

Post by **AGinNEIowa** » March 3rd, 2021, 9:27 am

ViAggie wrote: ↑
February 9th, 2021, 10:15 am
Hawaii was pretty good last year, do we see any fall off? No idea about ND, will FCS have a spring season this year or not? It would be interesting to see how well they do. I'm scared about every game, this could be a rough year, but then again, Anderson could pull a Craig Smith?

Missouri Valley Football Conference is playing now - week 3 is coming this weekend.

ND won at home against Southern Illinois in week 1 and South Dakota St in week 2 - they are in 1st in the MVFC

in week 2 - Southern Illinois beat defending champs NDSU - ending the Bison 39 game win streak

I've wondered if after a full conference schedule in the spring if FCS would maybe roll back the number of games in the fall? I haven't heard anything, it just seems like a lot of FB in much closer proximity than normal.

ViAggie · Post by **ViAggie** » March 3rd, 2021, 4:50 pm

AGinNEIowa wrote: ↑
March 3rd, 2021, 9:27 am

ViAggie wrote: ↑
February 9th, 2021, 10:15 am
Hawaii was pretty good last year, do we see any fall off? No idea about ND, will FCS have a spring season this year or not? It would be interesting to see how well they do. I'm scared about every game, this could be a rough year, but then again, Anderson could pull a Craig Smith?
Missouri Valley Football Conference is playing now - week 3 is coming this weekend.

ND won at home against Southern Illinois in week 1 and South Dakota St in week 2 - they are in 1st in the MVFC

in week 2 - Southern Illinois beat defending champs NDSU - ending the Bison 39 game win streak

I've wondered if after a full conference schedule in the spring if FCS would maybe roll back the number of games in the fall? I haven't heard anything, it just seems like a lot of FB in much closer proximity than normal.

I doubt it will change anything, they want the money

CedarAg · Post by **CedarAg** » March 4th, 2021, 5:17 pm

I believe we will be much better than predicted.

Post by **AGinNEIowa** » March 5th, 2021, 11:07 am

ViAggie wrote: ↑
March 3rd, 2021, 4:50 pm

AGinNEIowa wrote: ↑
March 3rd, 2021, 9:27 am

ViAggie wrote: ↑
February 9th, 2021, 10:15 am
Hawaii was pretty good last year, do we see any fall off? No idea about ND, will FCS have a spring season this year or not? It would be interesting to see how well they do. I'm scared about every game, this could be a rough year, but then again, Anderson could pull a Craig Smith?
Missouri Valley Football Conference is playing now - week 3 is coming this weekend.

ND won at home against Southern Illinois in week 1 and South Dakota St in week 2 - they are in 1st in the MVFC

in week 2 - Southern Illinois beat defending champs NDSU - ending the Bison 39 game win streak

I've wondered if after a full conference schedule in the spring if FCS would maybe roll back the number of games in the fall? I haven't heard anything, it just seems like a lot of FB in much closer proximity than normal.
I doubt it will change anything, they want the money

Looks like ND beat SD last night; 21-10 now 3-0

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