I've been around long enough to know that players don't magically get better when they change teams. Those guys in the portal are hit and miss. I would assume that most of the time they're misses. The sport knows how to play to our heads as fans. We want to see things getting better. We want the optimism. So here comes a flashy new signing, a new transfer, a new coach and we're right back in our seats. We're gonna win this year! It happens every offseason.

How much of what we've done with the transfer portal is improvement? I see it different than recruitment. Recruits / incoming class players have built in "development time." Transfers like free agents are expected to perform immediately.

We've brought in a lot (10?) of new guys from the portal who will play or are expected to contribute. We've got a new HC, a new defense, a new offense, (and new OC and DC).

I can't assume that there has been improvement player wise, (I think there has been), but I've been disappointed too many times. Or, have we really improved? I would argue we're exceptionally better coaching wise, and our game planning should also be improved. Or are we?

What will a good/successful season look like? How many wins is reasonable?

6-6, i think most wins will come later in the season

4 wins, the following year 7 wins. It’s real hard with new players, coaches, and schemes. My expectations are low but realistic.

After last season I would be shocked if we won more than 4, but with the players the new staff has brought on, and the excitement they bring, I think 6 may be within reach. If they make it to a bowl game next fall I will be doing back flips.

One thing that I do think is interesting is that fans can raise expectations with each win or good showing, and set themselves up for a meltdown forgetting how low their expectations once were. Take 2011, most of us were so down after the 2-5 start that we could have been told we could have five wins and Potato Bowl bid, even if the bowl game is a loss, and we all would have taken it. But of course, after the 5 wins and bowl bid, we wanted to win the game and not happy losing it.

Even prior to 2017, we would have been told we would get 6 wins for a bowl bid, with 1 of them being BYU, and we would have taken it. Even being told we would lose the bowl game to New Mexico State to finish, we still take it before the season, but after we got the bid, we expected to win and were all unhappy about losing, forgetting how low our preseason expectations were.

It's likely that while some people don't have expectations of a bowl game next year, getting the wins for the bid will set them up to melt down if we lose the game.

So we play 8 conference games, the WSU, NMSU, BYU, and who else to make 12?

BobWilson wrote: ↑

January 31st, 2021, 6:02 pm

So we play 8 conference games, the WSU, NMSU, BYU, and who else to make 12?

North Dakota

Aggie19 wrote: ↑

January 31st, 2021, 6:13 pm

BobWilson wrote: ↑

January 31st, 2021, 6:02 pm

So we play 8 conference games, the WSU, NMSU, BYU, and who else to make 12?

North Dakota

There's four wins right there!

I'd be extremely happy with a bowl appearance.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

captain68 wrote: ↑

January 31st, 2021, 4:04 pm

After last season I would be shocked if we won more than 4, but with the players the new staff has brought on, and the excitement they bring, I think 6 may be within reach. If they make it to a bowl game next fall I will be doing back flips.

Ditto!

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑

January 31st, 2021, 7:06 pm

Below are predictions/expectations for next year.

WSU-probable loss
North Dakota- probable win
NMSU- probable win
BYU- probable loss
WYO- tossup
CSU- tossup
HAW- tossup
BSU- probable loss
SJSU- probable loss
UNLV- probable win
NM- probable win
AF- probable loss

I predict the aggies to win the 4 probable wins and 2 of the tossups for 6-6. I think we will be improved, but the talent level still needs to be improved. If we are able to get to 6-6 next year I would see this as a huge victory for this new coaching staff.

With the loss of Nick Starkel and a couple of big play WRs, San Jose State should be back to normal in 2021.

aggies22 wrote: ↑

February 1st, 2021, 7:15 am

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑

January 31st, 2021, 7:06 pm

Below are predictions/expectations for next year.

WSU-probable loss
North Dakota- probable win
NMSU- probable win
BYU- probable loss
WYO- tossup
CSU- tossup
HAW- tossup
BSU- probable loss
SJSU- probable loss
UNLV- probable win
NM- probable win
AF- probable loss

I predict the aggies to win the 4 probable wins and 2 of the tossups for 6-6. I think we will be improved, but the talent level still needs to be improved. If we are able to get to 6-6 next year I would see this as a huge victory for this new coaching staff.

With the loss of Nick Starkel and a couple of big play WRs, San Jose State should be back to normal in 2021.

I've got bad news for you. Starkel is sticking around.

https://247sports.com/college/san-jose- ... 158029146/

thegreendalegelf wrote: ↑

February 1st, 2021, 8:00 am

aggies22 wrote: ↑

February 1st, 2021, 7:15 am

Aggie84025 wrote: ↑

January 31st, 2021, 7:06 pm

Below are predictions/expectations for next year.

WSU-probable loss
North Dakota- probable win
NMSU- probable win
BYU- probable loss
WYO- tossup
CSU- tossup
HAW- tossup
BSU- probable loss
SJSU- probable loss
UNLV- probable win
NM- probable win
AF- probable loss

I predict the aggies to win the 4 probable wins and 2 of the tossups for 6-6. I think we will be improved, but the talent level still needs to be improved. If we are able to get to 6-6 next year I would see this as a huge victory for this new coaching staff.

With the loss of Nick Starkel and a couple of big play WRs, San Jose State should be back to normal in 2021.

I've got bad news for your. Starkel is sticking around.

https://247sports.com/college/san-jose- ... 158029146/

I thought he'd left for the draft. I stand corrected. Thank you for pointing that out my Aggie brother.

I'm worried about all of them, even North Dakota scares me.

I'm not moving the goal posts for this team. I say 8 is the floor every season. Perhaps I am too demanding...

....But we've seen how quickly things can change under new coaching. (i.e. Craig Smith). And before you tell me about how you only need a few guys to change a team in basketball versus football we've seen the same thing in football from several programs. Remember just 4 years ago Fresno St. had a 1 win team, hired a new coach (Tedford), and immediately won 10 the very next season and 12 the season after that.

I'm no prophet but I believe we will be better at Q.B., WR. and the O line. On the D. the D line will be much better as will the Line backers, plus the secondary will be stronger . I see improvement all across the board.

I think we can win 5-7 games next season.

I don't think our problems last year were as much about talent as they were related to a cancerous locker room and lack of leadership.

Do we have any idea how the league games will be handled home vs away? Toss-up games home vs toss-up games away matter a lot.

If we're a lot better, it will be because the guys who were already here got better and received better coaching, I don't expect the new guys to make a HUGE difference.

If I made a betting line for next year, I'd go with 5.5 wins

USU78 wrote: ↑

February 1st, 2021, 12:52 pm

Do we have any idea how the league games will be handled home vs away? Toss-up games home vs toss-up games away matter a lot.

Away Games - Wazzu, New Mexico State, Air Force, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV
Home Games - North Dakota, BYU, Boise State, Colorado State, Hawaii, Wyoming.

So of our "Should wins" 3 are on the road and 1 is at home. For our "toss ups" - CSU, Hawaii and Wyoming are at home. Air Force is on the road. That's not a bad schedule for us this year.

Should Win (4-0):

Hawai'i
@NewMags
No Dakota
@Vegas

Should Lose (0-4):

@AFA
Boazy
stench
@Wazzu

Tossups (2-2 or 3-1):

CSU
@NewMejico
@San Jose
Wyoming

Floor is 6-6; Better Than Expected is 7-5; Exceeds All Expectations is 8-4.

But how about the crowds for that home schedule (assuming no WuFlu tanking of attendance)?

As a wazzu fan, I really do not see why everyone is so sure the aggies lose that game. Seriously, do people thunk Mike Leach is still there, or is it just a pac12 thing, or does nobody care to do their research to find out leach left the cupboard empty and some wsu fans are already done with Rolo?

Aggie formerly in Hawaii wrote: ↑

February 1st, 2021, 7:10 pm

LarryTheAggie wrote: ↑

February 1st, 2021, 7:02 pm

As a wazzu fan, I really do not see why everyone is so sure the aggies lose that game. Seriously, do people thunk Mike Leach is still there, or is it just a pac12 thing, or does nobody care to do their research to find out leach left the cupboard empty and some wsu fans are already done with Rolo?

Well we were pretty bad last year and will have a first year coach going against a Pac 12 team. If Paul Wulff becomes your coach, I'll pencil it in as a win.

I am not saying to pencil it in as a win, just to not pencil it in as a loss. But as a usu and wsu fan I am more confident that usu wins 7 games than wsu wins 4 next year.

Wsu also has a newish coach and was pretty bad last year. They also only won one game. WSU is a winnable game.

Also, if you are still not convinced, let me remind you, Mark Weber is their OL coach.... So...

LarryTheAggie wrote: ↑

February 1st, 2021, 7:02 pm

As a wazzu fan, I really do not see why everyone is so sure the aggies lose that game. Seriously, do people thunk Mike Leach is still there, or is it just a pac12 thing, or does nobody care to do their research to find out leach left the cupboard empty and some wsu fans are already done with Rolo?

I think it's based on our success or lack there of against P5 schools.

Going into last season, I felt pretty confident that the team was going to be horrible, and my prediction was two wins (I guess I was too hopeful). I'm interested to see how some of the new guys look in spring ball, and I'll hold off getting too hyped until then, but I'm much, much more hopeful this season. I don't think bowl eligibility is an unrealistic goal, though four or five wins would be an enormous improvement.

As many have noted already, the main thing I'm hoping for is to see competitive games. As bad as last year was, it was just one year. Win four or five games this year and stay competitive in losses and to recruits you're a program on the rise with a new coaching staff. Continuing to spiral and get blown out in games that should be close can start to have serious, long-term damage. Aggie fans know how difficult it is to get out of the cellar once you've been there for a little while.

Aglicious wrote: ↑

February 1st, 2021, 11:39 am

I'm not moving the goal posts for this team. I say 8 is the floor every season. Perhaps I am too demanding...

....But we've seen how quickly things can change under new coaching. (i.e. Craig Smith). And before you tell me about how you only need a few guys to change a team in basketball versus football we've seen the same thing in football from several programs. Remember just 4 years ago Fresno St. had a 1 win team, hired a new coach (Tedford), and immediately won 10 the very next season and 12 the season after that.

Agree! A couple of "impact" players can really make a difference. In our case the impact might be more coaching than players, another example. SJSU had impact guys at DE and WR. They win the league with those key players, good coaching and good supporting players.

I'll need to wait & see after watching spring ball, but right now I feel confident that if we can get even average/slightly above average QB play, this team can win 8 games next year.

The culture/attitude shift we've had & the influx in talent is huge.

I don't think our team was THAT bad last season, we just had a coach that didn't want the season to happen and didn't feel like we should be playing and I think that flowed through to the team. That combined with the Shelley mess was a domino effect into the debacle.

We will be better than anyone on this board is predicting. Just a hunch.

It will be difficult, in season, to watch 6 losses get piled on, including a loss to San Jose. I will be happy with 6 wins.

Someone did mention QB play in an earlier post. I still don't feel comfortable with our QB prospects.

Do we have room to add another impact player during the summer? Maybe another JUCO or transfer?

I expect to be competitive in every game, surprise a lot of people, and enjoy a more "normal" season of football. Just wanted to say hello to the group and also say that we are excited for some Aggie football. I know Justin is excited to be an Aggie and finish his college football career in Logan. Looking forward to visiting Logan during spring ball! Tried posting a new topic, but I guess I am too new to be able to do that!! LOL
Go Aggies!!