I Ran Some Data On Last Year's Pass Offense

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I Ran Some Data On Last Year's Pass Offense

Post by AggieUprising50 » January 9th, 2021, 8:02 pm

I had some time during my school break so I decided to run some data to see the effect our offensive line had on our passing offense. More specifically, what effect did adding a second of protection have on our offense.

Here's what I found. For every extra second of protection our O-line gave our qb we were:
- 51% more likely to score a touchdown
- 87.5% more likely to convert a first down (or throw for enough yards to get a first down)
- 70% more likely to complete a pass
- 25% less likely to give up a sack
- 23% less likely to throw an interception.

Our pass offense had the most success when we gave our quarter back 3-3.5 seconds of protection.

In the games we lost, we only gave our qb's an average of 2.11 seconds of protection. Whereas we gave Peasley an average of 3.1 seconds in the New Mexico game.

Some of the other observations I saw while watching the games over was:
- We only had a single play in the Nevada and Fresno State games where we gave our qb's 3 seconds of protection
- During the first three games, they would not block the DE on the RPO plays, which allowed him to rush the QB and swat down the throw or force the QB to throw it too high for our shorter slot receivers. Terrible scheming in my opinion.

Conclusion, if we were only able to improve our pass protection next season, we would see a major improvement in our offense. I have faith in the guys that with a full offseason of training and a motivated coaching staff, they could take the next step and play to the level our squad did in 2018.

I'm also thinking about running another data analysis. I was thinking about seeing the effect that bringing an extra rusher/Blitzer had on our defensive performance. What do you all think?
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Re: I Ran Some Data On Last Year's Pass Offense

Post by Turtle » January 9th, 2021, 9:16 pm

Very interesting! Love the numbers based take. Curious how you measured the time of protection, did you do it manually or have a program do it for you?



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Re: I Ran Some Data On Last Year's Pass Offense

Post by AggieUprising50 » January 9th, 2021, 9:52 pm

Turtle wrote:
January 9th, 2021, 9:16 pm
Very interesting! Love the numbers based take. Curious how you measured the time of protection, did you do it manually or have a program do it for you?
Manually with a stop watch. So of course there might be some manual error with the data entry, but I think the numbers still say something.



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Re: I Ran Some Data On Last Year's Pass Offense

Post by ususports » January 9th, 2021, 9:57 pm

AggieUprising50 wrote:
January 9th, 2021, 9:52 pm
Turtle wrote:
January 9th, 2021, 9:16 pm
Very interesting! Love the numbers based take. Curious how you measured the time of protection, did you do it manually or have a program do it for you?
Manually with a stop watch. So of course there might be some manual error with the data entry, but I think the numbers still say something.
How did you account for the games that we had a quarterback who couldn’t get the ball within 20 yards of the nearest receiver no matter how much time he had to throw the ball? :joking:



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Re: I Ran Some Data On Last Year's Pass Offense

Post by aggies22 » January 9th, 2021, 9:58 pm

AggieUprising50 wrote:
January 9th, 2021, 8:02 pm
I had some time during my school break so I decided to run some data to see the effect our offensive line had on our passing offense. More specifically, what effect did adding a second of protection have on our offense.

Here's what I found. For every extra second of protection our O-line gave our qb we were:
- 51% more likely to score a touchdown
- 87.5% more likely to convert a first down (or throw for enough yards to get a first down)
- 70% more likely to complete a pass
- 25% less likely to give up a sack
- 23% less likely to throw an interception.

Our pass offense had the most success when we gave our quarter back 3-3.5 seconds of protection.

In the games we lost, we only gave our qb's an average of 2.11 seconds of protection. Whereas we gave Peasley an average of 3.1 seconds in the New Mexico game.

Some of the other observations I saw while watching the games over was:
- We only had a single play in the Nevada and Fresno State games where we gave our qb's 3 seconds of protection
- During the first three games, they would not block the DE on the RPO plays, which allowed him to rush the QB and swat down the throw or force the QB to throw it too high for our shorter slot receivers. Terrible scheming in my opinion.

Conclusion, if we were only able to improve our pass protection next season, we would see a major improvement in our offense. I have faith in the guys that with a full offseason of training and a motivated coaching staff, they could take the next step and play to the level our squad did in 2018.

I'm also thinking about running another data analysis. I was thinking about seeing the effect that bringing an extra rusher/Blitzer had on our defensive performance. What do you all think?
This is pretty damn impressive my Aggie brother.
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Re: I Ran Some Data On Last Year's Pass Offense

Post by Winning Team » January 9th, 2021, 10:56 pm

Amazing work. I don’t know if I could ever watch those games over 😂



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Re: I Ran Some Data On Last Year's Pass Offense

Post by AggieUprising50 » January 10th, 2021, 8:35 pm

Winning Team wrote:
January 9th, 2021, 10:56 pm
Amazing work. I don’t know if I could ever watch those games over 😂
At times it was like pulling teeth.
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Re: I Ran Some Data On Last Year's Pass Offense

Post by taniataylor » January 10th, 2021, 11:22 pm

AggieUprising50 wrote:
January 9th, 2021, 8:02 pm
I had some time during my school break so I decided to run some data to see the effect our offensive line had on our passing offense. More specifically, what effect did adding a second of protection have on our offense.

Here's what I found. For every extra second of protection our O-line gave our qb we were:
- 51% more likely to score a touchdown
- 87.5% more likely to convert a first down (or throw for enough yards to get a first down)
- 70% more likely to complete a pass
- 25% less likely to give up a sack
- 23% less likely to throw an interception.

Our pass offense had the most success when we gave our quarter back 3-3.5 seconds of protection.

In the games we lost, we only gave our qb's an average of 2.11 seconds of protection. Whereas we gave Peasley an average of 3.1 seconds in the New Mexico game.

Some of the other observations I saw while watching the games over was:
- We only had a single play in the Nevada and Fresno State games where we gave our qb's 3 seconds of protection
- During the first three games, they would not block the DE on the RPO plays, which allowed him to rush the QB and swat down the throw or force the QB to throw it too high for our shorter slot receivers. Terrible scheming in my opinion.

Conclusion, if we were only able to improve our pass protection next season, we would see a major improvement in our offense. I have faith in the guys that with a full offseason of training and a motivated coaching staff, they could take the next step and play to the level our squad did in 2018.

I'm also thinking about running another data analysis. I was thinking about seeing the effect that bringing an extra rusher/Blitzer had on our defensive performance. What do you all think?
This is the direct result of boredom...Awesome...but sheeeesh
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Re: I Ran Some Data On Last Year's Pass Offense

Post by AggieUprising50 » January 11th, 2021, 8:35 am

taniataylor wrote:
January 10th, 2021, 11:22 pm
AggieUprising50 wrote:
January 9th, 2021, 8:02 pm
I had some time during my school break so I decided to run some data to see the effect our offensive line had on our passing offense. More specifically, what effect did adding a second of protection have on our offense.

Here's what I found. For every extra second of protection our O-line gave our qb we were:
- 51% more likely to score a touchdown
- 87.5% more likely to convert a first down (or throw for enough yards to get a first down)
- 70% more likely to complete a pass
- 25% less likely to give up a sack
- 23% less likely to throw an interception.

Our pass offense had the most success when we gave our quarter back 3-3.5 seconds of protection.

In the games we lost, we only gave our qb's an average of 2.11 seconds of protection. Whereas we gave Peasley an average of 3.1 seconds in the New Mexico game.

Some of the other observations I saw while watching the games over was:
- We only had a single play in the Nevada and Fresno State games where we gave our qb's 3 seconds of protection
- During the first three games, they would not block the DE on the RPO plays, which allowed him to rush the QB and swat down the throw or force the QB to throw it too high for our shorter slot receivers. Terrible scheming in my opinion.

Conclusion, if we were only able to improve our pass protection next season, we would see a major improvement in our offense. I have faith in the guys that with a full offseason of training and a motivated coaching staff, they could take the next step and play to the level our squad did in 2018.

I'm also thinking about running another data analysis. I was thinking about seeing the effect that bringing an extra rusher/Blitzer had on our defensive performance. What do you all think?
This is the direct result of boredom...Awesome...but sheeeesh
I have a 10 week winter break from school. So I guess you can say that.

But hey it beats playing video games all day.



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Re: I Ran Some Data On Last Year's Pass Offense

Post by mcaggie1 » January 11th, 2021, 9:26 am

AggieUprising50 wrote:
January 9th, 2021, 8:02 pm
I had some time during my school break so I decided to run some data to see the effect our offensive line had on our passing offense. More specifically, what effect did adding a second of protection have on our offense.

Here's what I found. For every extra second of protection our O-line gave our qb we were:
- 51% more likely to score a touchdown
- 87.5% more likely to convert a first down (or throw for enough yards to get a first down)
- 70% more likely to complete a pass
- 25% less likely to give up a sack
- 23% less likely to throw an interception.

Our pass offense had the most success when we gave our quarter back 3-3.5 seconds of protection.

In the games we lost, we only gave our qb's an average of 2.11 seconds of protection. Whereas we gave Peasley an average of 3.1 seconds in the New Mexico game.

Some of the other observations I saw while watching the games over was:
- We only had a single play in the Nevada and Fresno State games where we gave our qb's 3 seconds of protection
- During the first three games, they would not block the DE on the RPO plays, which allowed him to rush the QB and swat down the throw or force the QB to throw it too high for our shorter slot receivers. Terrible scheming in my opinion.

Conclusion, if we were only able to improve our pass protection next season, we would see a major improvement in our offense. I have faith in the guys that with a full offseason of training and a motivated coaching staff, they could take the next step and play to the level our squad did in 2018.

I'm also thinking about running another data analysis. I was thinking about seeing the effect that bringing an extra rusher/Blitzer had on our defensive performance. What do you all think?
Another factor if we want to play to the level of 2018 would be scheduling. I am not denying that 2018 was a very good team, but the schedule looked like this years BYU schedule.
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Re: I Ran Some Data On Last Year's Pass Offense

Post by AggieUprising50 » January 11th, 2021, 2:42 pm

mcaggie1 wrote:
January 11th, 2021, 9:26 am
AggieUprising50 wrote:
January 9th, 2021, 8:02 pm
I had some time during my school break so I decided to run some data to see the effect our offensive line had on our passing offense. More specifically, what effect did adding a second of protection have on our offense.

Here's what I found. For every extra second of protection our O-line gave our qb we were:
- 51% more likely to score a touchdown
- 87.5% more likely to convert a first down (or throw for enough yards to get a first down)
- 70% more likely to complete a pass
- 25% less likely to give up a sack
- 23% less likely to throw an interception.

Our pass offense had the most success when we gave our quarter back 3-3.5 seconds of protection.

In the games we lost, we only gave our qb's an average of 2.11 seconds of protection. Whereas we gave Peasley an average of 3.1 seconds in the New Mexico game.

Some of the other observations I saw while watching the games over was:
- We only had a single play in the Nevada and Fresno State games where we gave our qb's 3 seconds of protection
- During the first three games, they would not block the DE on the RPO plays, which allowed him to rush the QB and swat down the throw or force the QB to throw it too high for our shorter slot receivers. Terrible scheming in my opinion.

Conclusion, if we were only able to improve our pass protection next season, we would see a major improvement in our offense. I have faith in the guys that with a full offseason of training and a motivated coaching staff, they could take the next step and play to the level our squad did in 2018.

I'm also thinking about running another data analysis. I was thinking about seeing the effect that bringing an extra rusher/Blitzer had on our defensive performance. What do you all think?
Another factor if we want to play to the level of 2018 would be scheduling. I am not denying that 2018 was a very good team, but the schedule looked like this years BYU schedule.
I would argue that the 2018 team would have went 8-0 this season pretty easily.

Boise state was much better in 2018 than this year and Michigan State would have put any of the teams we played to shame. I also think the 2018 zoobs had a better defense than any of the teams we played this year.



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