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Realignment Predictions
- ratofallaggies
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Maybe. Any school worth anything is going to jump from that conference and has been trying to since the news broke. It won't be a power conference IF it is still around. IMO OK State, TCU, and Baylor are going to be trying to get in somewhere else. Probably the PAC12. None of those schools want to be left in what remains with a HUUUUUGE reduction in their TV contract and being compared to the schools you mentioned as possible additions.ChowderAggie wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 4:15 pmThe Big 12 is still in a much stronger position than any of the G5 programs and believe every AAC and MW team would jump at an opportunity to join. I’m just hoping they look East, as Vi has been suggesting.ratofallaggies wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 3:52 pmBig 12 is done. They can invite those schools if they want, but not sure what the point of joining that conference would be. There's verbiage in their TV contract that if membership changes, the network can renegotiate. As stated, T and OU comprises 75% of the value for that conference..... any school that jumps there is making nothing more than a lateral move. They'll no longer be considered a power conference.3rdGenAggie wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 2:50 pmThe question is, is it instant as soon as 4 schools leave? What if they call Houston and Cincinnati (who both say yes before the question is finished) and offer them admission. Now they are only down 2. Or...they offer BYU a sweetheart deal. THey don't have any conference affiliation to deal with and could officially join tomorrow.
- ShowMeAggie
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Re: Realignment Predictions
hasn't the pac-12 fairly recently done a very public and pretentious turning of their noses at private religious institutions? Are Baylor and TCU enough of a "get" to do a 180 on that consideration? IDK, but my gut says HEII NO!! And Oky State would stick out like a sore thumb too. Cowboys and oil magnates are NOT what the PAC12 is about. TTU is in a weird in-between place, but as has been mentioned not the best fit, and not worth the hassle and the dilution effect. Bold prediction: PAC12 stands pat and commits to strengthening its core rather than expanding its base.
- 2004AG
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Re: Realignment Predictions
It will be the Big East Part 2ratofallaggies wrote:Big 12 is done. They can invite those schools if they want, but not sure what the point of joining that conference would be. There's verbiage in their TV contract that if membership changes, the network can renegotiate. As stated, T and OU comprises 75% of the value for that conference..... any school that jumps there is making nothing more than a lateral move. They'll no longer be considered a power conference.3rdGenAggie wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 2:50 pmThe question is, is it instant as soon as 4 schools leave? What if they call Houston and Cincinnati (who both say yes before the question is finished) and offer them admission. Now they are only down 2. Or...they offer BYU a sweetheart deal. THey don't have any conference affiliation to deal with and could officially join tomorrow.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
1.Byu accepts a big 12 invite about 12 seconds after getting invited.
2. About 25 seconds later every other big 12 team leaves for other conferences.
3. No MWC or AAC team takes a big 12 invite.
4. The big 12 is stuck taking half of the sunbelt and conference USA.
5. Byu is stuck playing Coastal Carolina every year for the Big 12 championship.
2. About 25 seconds later every other big 12 team leaves for other conferences.
3. No MWC or AAC team takes a big 12 invite.
4. The big 12 is stuck taking half of the sunbelt and conference USA.
5. Byu is stuck playing Coastal Carolina every year for the Big 12 championship.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
My thoughts. Buckle up for the novel...I had fun writing it though, so I don't care what you think.
1. UT and OU are gonzo. The ink may not be dry but it might as well be.
2. The Big 12 will quickly invite Houston, Cincinnati, UCF and USF. (I think USF is a lot better option than SMU - more alumni the only NCAA in Tampa, travel partner for UCF, etc. SMU is in Dallas, but so is TCU - a second small school in Dallas does nothing for them.)
3. I'm don't think the PAC 12 invites anybody, at least not now. If they were to invite some I think it would be Oklahoma State and Kansas only.
Assuming the PAC 12 has absolutely decided to go to add some schools, I think these would be their invites in order:
Kansas: They have a lot of students (27k) and alumni (350k) and are only half an hour from Kansas City. They bring an absolute blue-blood of a basketball program that draws as many eyeballs as most football programs. It doesn't matter that their football is perpetually awful...the other schools need an automatic win anyway. Only real downside is geography and the B1G might want them. Good academics - has a med school and a law school.
Okie State: They have 25k students and 250k alumni. They're right between OKC and Tulsa - about an hour from both. Also, OU is the only other in-state football to contend with for eyeballs. Only problem: geography and the B1G might want them. Good enough academics - has a med school (osteopathic, but still a med school).
Most likely they stop here. But, if they feel they have to go to 16 I think they make the following offers, in order:
University of Houston: They're located in a major Texas market (one of the biggest in the country). They've got a lot of students (45k) and alumni (200k). They've got really good football and basketball programs and wouldn't have any trouble adjusting to the P5 level. UH certainly doesn't draw in Houston like UT or TAMU, but it gives the PAC 12 a toe-hold in that market. Good enough academics - have a med school and law school. (You could actually convince me Houston gets a call before Okie State does to get into Texas.)
TCU: Only invited as a travel partner to Houston if the PAC 12 goes to 16. Being located in the DFW metro and not having all the recent black-eyes Baylor has is the only reason they are this high. If the PAC 12 is going to expand east, the big Texas markets will be the reason why. They only have 11k students and 90k alumni. I can't imagine TCU draws all that much of the Dallas market, but they do give the PAC 12 a toe-hold there. Travel partner for Houston.
Baylor: Only invited if Houston accepts and TCU declines. Only really on this list due to proximity to major Texas markets. Baylor has 20k students and 135k alumni, but it is in Waco which is 250k in population and smack in between Dallas and Austin (1.5 hrs to each), Houston is a little under 3 hrs. I don't know how much Baylor draws outside of Waco, but from a recruiting standpoint their location is helpful. Recent basketball national championship is a nice bonus.
I don't think Texas Tech gets an invite under any real circumstance unless the PAC 12 REALLY wants into Texas and can't get two of Houston, TCU or Baylor. The only draw TTU has to the PAC 12 is being in Texas and they're in the worst, most sparsely populated part of Texas.
**THE HOTTEST OF TAKES** If it weren't for their historical conference affiliation and the mountains of money that came with that, TTU wouldn't be much more attractive than Utah State as a conference partner. We just all have P5 blinders on because they've shared a conference with Texas, OU, Texas A&M, etc. Reason 1: they're not radically better than USU from a TV market standpoint: TTU is in Lubbock, TX (314k), USU is in Logan, UT (130k). The next nearest markets are Amarillo (300k) and Abilene (170K) each about 2 hours away. It is 5 hours from Lubbock to Dallas. For comparison, Logan is an hour to Weber/Davis Counties (650k Metro) and 1.5 hours to Salt Lake City (1.2 million). TTU probably draws somewhat better in Dallas than USU does in SLC, but they're certainly not the main show. Further, their location brings no recruiting advantage whatsoever which is why TCU and Baylor are on the list and TTU isn't.
(Caveat: I know USU is NEVER getting into the PAC 12, but the only reason TTU is on anyone's list for any P5 conference is because they were in a conference with Texas and Oklahoma and made tons of money off their conference-mates backs. I think USU would look a lot like Texas Tech if USU had been getting $50 million a year and had major programs playing in Logan every season.)
If the PAC 12 decides to expand and wants to keep it regional or only invite 2 schools from the Big 12, I think the calls go like this:
UNLV: TV markets strike again. Regardless of their lack of recent success in anything, they are in Las Vegas. The PAC 12 would LOVE to get a piece of that. Las Vegas is getting a lot more sports competition, but UNLV is still the only college sport in town. They have lots of students (31k) but an oddly low number of alumni (120k - people must not be graduating). While no academic powerhouse, UNLV does have both medical and law schools. I firmly believe that UNLV would be the first team invited to the PAC 12 if they were expanding in the west...not because they've done anything right athletically, but because they're in Las Vegas.
Boise State: This is only if the PAC 12 stops caring about the university attached to the football team. They've got lots of students (25k) and a growing alumni base. They bring a smaller, but completely untapped and very fast-growing media market and are the only show in town. They also bring an established brand and would do just fine athletically. In all seriousness, I think the blue turf would be a big turn-off to the PAC 12. If an invite were to come, which would be more likely to happen? The PAC 12 allowing blue turf or Boise State changing it to green? Also, for one last shot at Boise State - could they survive long term in a conference without a sweetheart deal?
SDSU: Only if the UC schools could stomach the idea of playing nice with a lowly Cal State (doubtful, but you never know). They've got a lot of students and alumni and are located in a city the PAC 12 doesn't have a school in. USC and UCLA probably bring in more San Diego eyeballs than SDSU does, but including SDSU would get all of them. They also have had decent success in both football and basketball. Academically, it's fine. It's a Cal State so it doesn't have any of the important programs (USD has all those), but there aren't many other western options in bigger markets.
BYUBYU only gets an invite if the most important thing in the world for the PAC 12 is to expand to 16 with western schools AND they're willing to ignore religious and political differences. BYU has fans all over, tons of students and lots of loyal (and several deep-pocketed) alumni. They've had historical success and are pretty well known nationally. Frankly, they meet the profile of a P5 school, they are just too different (and annoying).
4. If the PAC 12 were to steal 4 teams from the dregs of the Big 12, I think the Big 12 dies. The remaining 4 schools don't have enough pull to convince others to leave a stable environment. I think the AAC gets their pick of who they want (in order: WVU, Iowa State, TTU, and Kansas State). If the AAC doesn't want all those, the MWC invites the others. (The MWC would probably invite, in order: TTU, K-State, Iowa State, WVU (geography)) but I expect those schools would opt for the AAC for geography reasons. BYU stays independent (or maaaabye comes to a 16 team MWC, but I doubt it and I would rather they stay out).
5. I don't think the AAC and MWC combine. If the AAC is successfully raided by the Big 12 the MWC will invite a couple AAC teams (to further weaken their position) and if they come, the AAC leftovers will invite some C-USA schools. C-USA will then invite some Sun Belt schools and the Sun Belt will fold leaving a few teams out of luck.
If the MWC is raided by the Big 12 (unlikely) the AAC may invite a couple MWC teams (to further weaken its position). If there are 8 remaining, the MWC will remain as an 8 team conference with everyone looking for the last lifeboat out. If there are only 6 remaining...godspeed to those 6.
6. I think the B1G only expands if they can get Notre Dame to finally join a conference. WVU and Iowa State would be desperate for the second invite, but I doubt one comes for either of them. The next two they look at are Syracuse and Virginia, maybe Virginia Tech. I don't think Pitt makes the cut (I see them as similar to WVU). I don't know if the B1G would go as far south as Clemson, but they're obviously the crown jewel of the ACC. At that point, the ACC stands pat at 14...for now at least.
Edit: I forgot about Kansas when considering B1G expansion. They would probably be an early call. My predictions are that they would call Notre Dame first, Kansas second, Virginia third, Syracuse 4th. I don't think Okie State does anything for them. If UT, OU and KU all leave, the Big 12 backfills with AAC teams and the MWC is largely unaffected.
1. UT and OU are gonzo. The ink may not be dry but it might as well be.
2. The Big 12 will quickly invite Houston, Cincinnati, UCF and USF. (I think USF is a lot better option than SMU - more alumni the only NCAA in Tampa, travel partner for UCF, etc. SMU is in Dallas, but so is TCU - a second small school in Dallas does nothing for them.)
3. I'm don't think the PAC 12 invites anybody, at least not now. If they were to invite some I think it would be Oklahoma State and Kansas only.
Assuming the PAC 12 has absolutely decided to go to add some schools, I think these would be their invites in order:
Kansas: They have a lot of students (27k) and alumni (350k) and are only half an hour from Kansas City. They bring an absolute blue-blood of a basketball program that draws as many eyeballs as most football programs. It doesn't matter that their football is perpetually awful...the other schools need an automatic win anyway. Only real downside is geography and the B1G might want them. Good academics - has a med school and a law school.
Okie State: They have 25k students and 250k alumni. They're right between OKC and Tulsa - about an hour from both. Also, OU is the only other in-state football to contend with for eyeballs. Only problem: geography and the B1G might want them. Good enough academics - has a med school (osteopathic, but still a med school).
Most likely they stop here. But, if they feel they have to go to 16 I think they make the following offers, in order:
University of Houston: They're located in a major Texas market (one of the biggest in the country). They've got a lot of students (45k) and alumni (200k). They've got really good football and basketball programs and wouldn't have any trouble adjusting to the P5 level. UH certainly doesn't draw in Houston like UT or TAMU, but it gives the PAC 12 a toe-hold in that market. Good enough academics - have a med school and law school. (You could actually convince me Houston gets a call before Okie State does to get into Texas.)
TCU: Only invited as a travel partner to Houston if the PAC 12 goes to 16. Being located in the DFW metro and not having all the recent black-eyes Baylor has is the only reason they are this high. If the PAC 12 is going to expand east, the big Texas markets will be the reason why. They only have 11k students and 90k alumni. I can't imagine TCU draws all that much of the Dallas market, but they do give the PAC 12 a toe-hold there. Travel partner for Houston.
Baylor: Only invited if Houston accepts and TCU declines. Only really on this list due to proximity to major Texas markets. Baylor has 20k students and 135k alumni, but it is in Waco which is 250k in population and smack in between Dallas and Austin (1.5 hrs to each), Houston is a little under 3 hrs. I don't know how much Baylor draws outside of Waco, but from a recruiting standpoint their location is helpful. Recent basketball national championship is a nice bonus.
I don't think Texas Tech gets an invite under any real circumstance unless the PAC 12 REALLY wants into Texas and can't get two of Houston, TCU or Baylor. The only draw TTU has to the PAC 12 is being in Texas and they're in the worst, most sparsely populated part of Texas.
**THE HOTTEST OF TAKES** If it weren't for their historical conference affiliation and the mountains of money that came with that, TTU wouldn't be much more attractive than Utah State as a conference partner. We just all have P5 blinders on because they've shared a conference with Texas, OU, Texas A&M, etc. Reason 1: they're not radically better than USU from a TV market standpoint: TTU is in Lubbock, TX (314k), USU is in Logan, UT (130k). The next nearest markets are Amarillo (300k) and Abilene (170K) each about 2 hours away. It is 5 hours from Lubbock to Dallas. For comparison, Logan is an hour to Weber/Davis Counties (650k Metro) and 1.5 hours to Salt Lake City (1.2 million). TTU probably draws somewhat better in Dallas than USU does in SLC, but they're certainly not the main show. Further, their location brings no recruiting advantage whatsoever which is why TCU and Baylor are on the list and TTU isn't.
(Caveat: I know USU is NEVER getting into the PAC 12, but the only reason TTU is on anyone's list for any P5 conference is because they were in a conference with Texas and Oklahoma and made tons of money off their conference-mates backs. I think USU would look a lot like Texas Tech if USU had been getting $50 million a year and had major programs playing in Logan every season.)
If the PAC 12 decides to expand and wants to keep it regional or only invite 2 schools from the Big 12, I think the calls go like this:
UNLV: TV markets strike again. Regardless of their lack of recent success in anything, they are in Las Vegas. The PAC 12 would LOVE to get a piece of that. Las Vegas is getting a lot more sports competition, but UNLV is still the only college sport in town. They have lots of students (31k) but an oddly low number of alumni (120k - people must not be graduating). While no academic powerhouse, UNLV does have both medical and law schools. I firmly believe that UNLV would be the first team invited to the PAC 12 if they were expanding in the west...not because they've done anything right athletically, but because they're in Las Vegas.
Boise State: This is only if the PAC 12 stops caring about the university attached to the football team. They've got lots of students (25k) and a growing alumni base. They bring a smaller, but completely untapped and very fast-growing media market and are the only show in town. They also bring an established brand and would do just fine athletically. In all seriousness, I think the blue turf would be a big turn-off to the PAC 12. If an invite were to come, which would be more likely to happen? The PAC 12 allowing blue turf or Boise State changing it to green? Also, for one last shot at Boise State - could they survive long term in a conference without a sweetheart deal?
SDSU: Only if the UC schools could stomach the idea of playing nice with a lowly Cal State (doubtful, but you never know). They've got a lot of students and alumni and are located in a city the PAC 12 doesn't have a school in. USC and UCLA probably bring in more San Diego eyeballs than SDSU does, but including SDSU would get all of them. They also have had decent success in both football and basketball. Academically, it's fine. It's a Cal State so it doesn't have any of the important programs (USD has all those), but there aren't many other western options in bigger markets.
BYUBYU only gets an invite if the most important thing in the world for the PAC 12 is to expand to 16 with western schools AND they're willing to ignore religious and political differences. BYU has fans all over, tons of students and lots of loyal (and several deep-pocketed) alumni. They've had historical success and are pretty well known nationally. Frankly, they meet the profile of a P5 school, they are just too different (and annoying).
4. If the PAC 12 were to steal 4 teams from the dregs of the Big 12, I think the Big 12 dies. The remaining 4 schools don't have enough pull to convince others to leave a stable environment. I think the AAC gets their pick of who they want (in order: WVU, Iowa State, TTU, and Kansas State). If the AAC doesn't want all those, the MWC invites the others. (The MWC would probably invite, in order: TTU, K-State, Iowa State, WVU (geography)) but I expect those schools would opt for the AAC for geography reasons. BYU stays independent (or maaaabye comes to a 16 team MWC, but I doubt it and I would rather they stay out).
5. I don't think the AAC and MWC combine. If the AAC is successfully raided by the Big 12 the MWC will invite a couple AAC teams (to further weaken their position) and if they come, the AAC leftovers will invite some C-USA schools. C-USA will then invite some Sun Belt schools and the Sun Belt will fold leaving a few teams out of luck.
If the MWC is raided by the Big 12 (unlikely) the AAC may invite a couple MWC teams (to further weaken its position). If there are 8 remaining, the MWC will remain as an 8 team conference with everyone looking for the last lifeboat out. If there are only 6 remaining...godspeed to those 6.
6. I think the B1G only expands if they can get Notre Dame to finally join a conference. WVU and Iowa State would be desperate for the second invite, but I doubt one comes for either of them. The next two they look at are Syracuse and Virginia, maybe Virginia Tech. I don't think Pitt makes the cut (I see them as similar to WVU). I don't know if the B1G would go as far south as Clemson, but they're obviously the crown jewel of the ACC. At that point, the ACC stands pat at 14...for now at least.
Edit: I forgot about Kansas when considering B1G expansion. They would probably be an early call. My predictions are that they would call Notre Dame first, Kansas second, Virginia third, Syracuse 4th. I don't think Okie State does anything for them. If UT, OU and KU all leave, the Big 12 backfills with AAC teams and the MWC is largely unaffected.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Did the Kansas basketball team get hit with NCAA violations recently? A coworker brought that up as I was leaving work today. If they did that would possibly have conferences shy away from them.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
I still think that BYU is a much better and more appealing target for the Big XII than the ones you put down. With a national following, a large (we can only assume) budget, and strong academics, I think BYU, as an expansion target, has more to offer the Big XII than the negatives they bring. I would think the Big XII would like to get Colorado back, too, but they may take either Boise State or Colorado State instead.
Notre Dame and BYU have to be the most appealing of the non-P5 schools when expansions start happening.
Notre Dame and BYU have to be the most appealing of the non-P5 schools when expansions start happening.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
I think the Big Ten might go after Colorado and Kansas. I haven’t heard much about the Colorado possibility, but the Buffaloes don’t have much history with the other PAC-12 schools. Colorado has looked to the east for rivalries and conference affiliation for decades.swordsman1989 wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 12:14 pmHonestly, I think the Big Ten(Fourteen) goes all out and invites USC and Washington and effectively kills the PAC-12. The ACC adds West Virginia and (finally) convinces Notre Dame to join a conference.
I wouldn’t want to be an Oklahoma State or Baylor fan at the moment. The numbers just might not work our for them.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
What are you talking about. The MWC is great!dogie wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 6:28 pmI think the Big Ten might go after Colorado and Kansas. I haven’t heard much about the Colorado possibility, but the Buffaloes don’t have much history with the other PAC-12 schools. Colorado has looked to the east for rivalries and conference affiliation for decades.swordsman1989 wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 12:14 pmHonestly, I think the Big Ten(Fourteen) goes all out and invites USC and Washington and effectively kills the PAC-12. The ACC adds West Virginia and (finally) convinces Notre Dame to join a conference.
I wouldn’t want to be an Oklahoma State or Baylor fan at the moment. The numbers just might not work our for them.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
according to this report (https://www.yahoo.com/sports/report-big ... 58725.html), B1G wants no part of Iowa St or Kansas.
Disclaimer: Note the "Big 12 source" for the information. but no worries; i'm sure they're completely unbiased and have no self-preservation interests at all.
the MWC should make a serious basketball move and make a play for KU ( ; as a Mizzou alum, I am contractually obligated to include that emoji with any mention of the jayhawks ; sorry/not sorry @ineptimusprime ) with or without Iowa State, Gonzaga, Wichita State, and ???
Disclaimer: Note the "Big 12 source" for the information. but no worries; i'm sure they're completely unbiased and have no self-preservation interests at all.
the MWC should make a serious basketball move and make a play for KU ( ; as a Mizzou alum, I am contractually obligated to include that emoji with any mention of the jayhawks ; sorry/not sorry @ineptimusprime ) with or without Iowa State, Gonzaga, Wichita State, and ???
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Re: Realignment Predictions
That would make their football team more competitive in conference play.ShowMeAggie wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 7:57 pmaccording to this report (https://www.yahoo.com/sports/report-big ... 58725.html), B1G wants no part of Iowa St or Kansas.
Disclaimer: Note the "Big 12 source" for the information. but no worries; i'm sure they're completely unbiased and have no self-preservation interests at all.
the MWC should make a serious basketball move and make a play for KU ( ; as a Mizzou alum, I am contractually obligated to include that emoji with any mention of the jayhawks ; sorry/not sorry @ineptimusprime ) with or without Iowa State, Gonzaga, Wichita State, and ???
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Re: Realignment Predictions
The MWC getting Kansas would be a major, major coup, but in the event OU and Texas are the only schools leaving the Big 12, they'll just backfill from the AAC (Houston, Cincinnati, UCF and Memphis/USF) and be the best G6 conference at worst.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
I was thinking...last time the B1G expanded they added Nebraska and Iowa - two traditionally strong athletic programs. But they also added Maryland and Rutgers - neither school is remotely known for athletic prowess (Rutgers? Really?). They were added for one reason and one reason alone - they brought new media markets to the negotiation table.
Other than maybe Kansas, none of the remaining Big 12 schools move the needle that much. As such, there will be a minimum of 2 and a max of 3 schools plucked away and the Big 12 will survive and just add a couple of the schools mentioned.
HOWEVER, it's notc at all far fetched to think that the Big 12 wouldn't just add 2 AAC schools and then look west to BYU and another western partner. The obvious name to go with BYU is Boise, but I'm not convinced it would be them. Remember: the B1G picked freaking Rutgers. I think Colorado State might make a stronger argument than Boise does. Even if they only bring 30% of the Denver market, that's more eyeballs than the entire Boise market...
Other than maybe Kansas, none of the remaining Big 12 schools move the needle that much. As such, there will be a minimum of 2 and a max of 3 schools plucked away and the Big 12 will survive and just add a couple of the schools mentioned.
HOWEVER, it's notc at all far fetched to think that the Big 12 wouldn't just add 2 AAC schools and then look west to BYU and another western partner. The obvious name to go with BYU is Boise, but I'm not convinced it would be them. Remember: the B1G picked freaking Rutgers. I think Colorado State might make a stronger argument than Boise does. Even if they only bring 30% of the Denver market, that's more eyeballs than the entire Boise market...
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Re: Realignment Predictions
The MWC will still be the MWC. A couple teams might get snagged by the big12/new AAC but will backfill with nmsu or ndsu etc. That's all. We are at the kiddy table. Except it. We just have to look forward to cheering for our alma mater in the little league tournament.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Duke has gone secular, for quite some time actually. Also, having the “Blue Devils” in the conference would not fly with the likes of TCU, Grand Canyon, Pepperdine etc. but yeahUSU78 wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 12:02 pmCaptainChaos wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 11:49 amBYU drops football and creates “general conference” church ball league.
SMU
BYU
Baylor
TCU
Gonzaga
St Mary’s
Duke
Pepperdine
BYU- Idaho
BYU- Hawaii
Grand Canyon
Some others I dunno..
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Re: Realignment Predictions
This would be my prediction as far as the Big Ten is concerned. I think they go big and add PAC-12 members. I think their TV partners would be pushing this too. They could go really big and add Six schools out west.swordsman1989 wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 12:14 pmHonestly, I think the Big Ten(Fourteen) goes all out and invites USC and Washington and effectively kills the PAC-12. The ACC adds West Virginia and (finally) convinces Notre Dame to join a conference.
Something like this:
USC
UCLA
Washington
Oregon
Stanford
Then either Cal or Kansas depending on if there is going to be a political backlash in California for leaving Cal out.
That would give them four divisions of five schools, you would play four games in your division and four crossover games.
If they can't get a deal then I see them standing pat. I just don't see them adding a Kansas alone or any of the rest of the Big-12 when they could have added them at any time in the last 20 years if they wanted them, I don't see Notre Dame changing their minds and I doubt that they go after the ACC.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
I love the PAC-12 teams going to the B1G speculation, totally laughable. Colorado isn't joining the B1G, they are geographically and culturally more aligned out west than they are in the upper midwest. Not one PAC-12 team will be poached, if they are, I'll donate an extra $200 to the BBC and eat my words.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
I think it's possible the B1G looks west, but I think the schools in the PAC 12 are comfortable where they are. I think most its members would rather poach others than leave for greener pastures. It's hard to say if they would continue to be comfortable if a gazillion dollars were dangled in front of them, but from most perspectives (geography, like institutions, no real hangers-on [think Vandy, Boston College, etc.]) the PAC 12 is an exceptional league. Their traditional powerhouse programs haven't been quite as strong in the last several years, but I don't think that is a permanent thing.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
School names that will never be in the PAC (mark my words):
1. Any school with the name "Tech" in it.
2. Any school that has the name of a City (or County) in the title/Schools with the name "State" that isn't a State name.
3. Any school with the word "Christian" in the title.
4. Any school that starts with the letter B
1. Any school with the name "Tech" in it.
2. Any school that has the name of a City (or County) in the title/Schools with the name "State" that isn't a State name.
3. Any school with the word "Christian" in the title.
4. Any school that starts with the letter B
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Uh, Iowa was a member of the B1G for a long time before Nebraska - having joined the original 7 along with Indiana in 1899 (USU was a wee-lit'l 11 year old...)3rdGenAggie wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 11:17 pmI was thinking...last time the B1G expanded they added Nebraska and Iowa - two traditionally strong athletic programs. But they also added Maryland and Rutgers - neither school is remotely known for athletic prowess (Rutgers? Really?). They were added for one reason and one reason alone - they brought new media markets to the negotiation table.
Other than maybe Kansas, none of the remaining Big 12 schools move the needle that much. As such, there will be a minimum of 2 and a max of 3 schools plucked away and the Big 12 will survive and just add a couple of the schools mentioned.
HOWEVER, it's notc at all far fetched to think that the Big 12 wouldn't just add 2 AAC schools and then look west to BYU and another western partner. The obvious name to go with BYU is Boise, but I'm not convinced it would be them. Remember: the B1G picked freaking Rutgers. I think Colorado State might make a stronger argument than Boise does. Even if they only bring 30% of the Denver market, that's more eyeballs than the entire Boise market...
Penn State in 1990 was the first expansion since 1950 when they added MSU (prior was 1917 when Michigan rejoined after getting booted in 1907).
Nebraska joined by itself in 2011
Rutgers/Maryland came along in 2014
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Re: Realignment Predictions
You are correct sir. Thanks for the correction.AGinNEIowa wrote: ↑July 28th, 2021, 10:06 amUh, Iowa was a member of the B1G for a long time before Nebraska - having joined the original 7 along with Indiana in 1899 (USU was a wee-lit'l 11 year old...)3rdGenAggie wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 11:17 pmI was thinking...last time the B1G expanded they added Nebraska and Iowa - two traditionally strong athletic programs. But they also added Maryland and Rutgers - neither school is remotely known for athletic prowess (Rutgers? Really?). They were added for one reason and one reason alone - they brought new media markets to the negotiation table.
Other than maybe Kansas, none of the remaining Big 12 schools move the needle that much. As such, there will be a minimum of 2 and a max of 3 schools plucked away and the Big 12 will survive and just add a couple of the schools mentioned.
HOWEVER, it's not at all far fetched to think that the Big 12 wouldn't just add 2 AAC schools and then look west to BYU and another western partner. The obvious name to go with BYU is Boise, but I'm not convinced it would be them. Remember: the B1G picked freaking Rutgers. I think Colorado State might make a stronger argument than Boise does. Even if they only bring 30% of the Denver market, that's more eyeballs than the entire Boise market...
Penn State in 1990 was the first expansion since 1950 when they added MSU (prior was 1917 when Michigan rejoined after getting booted in 1907).
Nebraska joined by itself in 2011
Rutgers/Maryland came along in 2014
If anything, that just further proves the point that the B1G expanded into media markets, they didn't expand to add football teams. I expect this round of expansion will be no different.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
not sure how much of a media market Nebraska is, but I agree in principle.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Great one. Nebraska not only brings the state but I believe also still carry somewhat of a National following (probably not as much as 20 years ago but still a presence).AGinNEIowa wrote: ↑July 28th, 2021, 10:41 amnot sure how much of a media market Nebraska is, but I agree in principle.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Probably a safe bet considering all of the politics involved but don't think that the B1G TV partners are not trying.ViAggie wrote: ↑July 28th, 2021, 8:46 amI love the PAC-12 teams going to the B1G speculation, totally laughable. Colorado isn't joining the B1G, they are geographically and culturally more aligned out west than they are in the upper midwest. Not one PAC-12 team will be poached, if they are, I'll donate an extra $200 to the BBC and eat my words.
Here why this is possible... Here are the distributions for the B1G and the PAC-12 for 2019
Pac-12 - 33.6 Million
B1G - 55.6 Million (still the larger than the SEC)
Add to this the B1G TV contracts are up for renegotiations in 2023 (Fox and ESPN) and what if the numbers for the B1G with a PAC-12 expansion are at or above 70 Million a year? If this is the case I can't imagine that if you are a PAC-12 school you are not at least listening.
Since Fox and ESPN are currently TV partners to both conferences it makes a lot of financial sense for them to push for consolidation of the conferences.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Taking Washington, Oregon, USC, and maybe like ASU would probably be a big deal for the Big 10, that's a huge bunch of TVs between those four schools.Aggieiester wrote: ↑July 28th, 2021, 11:08 amProbably a safe bet considering all of the politics involved but don't think that the B1G TV partners are not trying.ViAggie wrote: ↑July 28th, 2021, 8:46 amI love the PAC-12 teams going to the B1G speculation, totally laughable. Colorado isn't joining the B1G, they are geographically and culturally more aligned out west than they are in the upper midwest. Not one PAC-12 team will be poached, if they are, I'll donate an extra $200 to the BBC and eat my words.
Here why this is possible... Here are the distributions for the B1G and the PAC-12 for 2019
Pac-12 - 33.6 Million
B1G - 55.6 Million (still the larger than the SEC)
Add to this the B1G TV contracts are up for renegotiations in 2023 (Fox and ESPN) and what if the numbers for the B1G with a PAC-12 expansion are at or above 70 Million a year? If this is the case I can't imagine that if you are a PAC-12 school you are not at least listening.
Since Fox and ESPN are currently TV partners to both conferences it makes a lot of financial sense for them to push for consolidation of the conferences.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
After reading through this, my hot take is that there will end up being a lot less movement than most of you guys are expecting.
Getting to a bigger stage is not usually the panacea that people expect it to be.
Getting to a bigger stage is not usually the panacea that people expect it to be.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Kansas and Iowa State to BIG
OK State, Baylor, Houston, SMU? to ACC.
PAC-12 sees need to expand to 18 and keep the traditional rivalry approach. They will add USU and CSU to compliment UU and CU. Then they will add UNLV and Nevada to get the Vegas market and finally SDSU and Fresno to round out. They split into the flagship and state divisions. Flagship: Arizona, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, USC, UCLA, CU, UU. State: ASU, OSU, WSU, USU, CSU, UNLV, UNR, SDSU, FSU (sorry Nevada teams you don't bring enough to go into flagship division). Flagship division takes 75% of TV revenues. 9 games football slate with everyone in your division and your geographic rival and conference championship game. 18 game basketball slate with same thing x2.
BSU and BYU scramble to form a league with K-State, Texas Tech and whoever else is left from Big12 and try to claim they are now in a P5 conference. Wyoming, UNM, NMSU, and UTEP all beg for lifelines and may make it only because they need to get a full slate of teams but share less revenue with the latter 4.
Air Force and Hawaii go independent for football.
I'd give more details but I then woke up.
OK State, Baylor, Houston, SMU? to ACC.
PAC-12 sees need to expand to 18 and keep the traditional rivalry approach. They will add USU and CSU to compliment UU and CU. Then they will add UNLV and Nevada to get the Vegas market and finally SDSU and Fresno to round out. They split into the flagship and state divisions. Flagship: Arizona, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, USC, UCLA, CU, UU. State: ASU, OSU, WSU, USU, CSU, UNLV, UNR, SDSU, FSU (sorry Nevada teams you don't bring enough to go into flagship division). Flagship division takes 75% of TV revenues. 9 games football slate with everyone in your division and your geographic rival and conference championship game. 18 game basketball slate with same thing x2.
BSU and BYU scramble to form a league with K-State, Texas Tech and whoever else is left from Big12 and try to claim they are now in a P5 conference. Wyoming, UNM, NMSU, and UTEP all beg for lifelines and may make it only because they need to get a full slate of teams but share less revenue with the latter 4.
Air Force and Hawaii go independent for football.
I'd give more details but I then woke up.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Replace CSU with AFA, they make more money, and it would look really good for the PAC to have a Service Academy in their ranks. CSU joins the AAC, Hawaii will join YBU with the leftovers.Coloraggie wrote: ↑July 28th, 2021, 12:41 pmKansas and Iowa State to BIG
OK State, Baylor, Houston, SMU? to ACC.
PAC-12 sees need to expand to 18 and keep the traditional rivalry approach. They will add USU and CSU to compliment UU and CU. Then they will add UNLV and Nevada to get the Vegas market and finally SDSU and Fresno to round out. They split into the flagship and state divisions. Flagship: Arizona, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, USC, UCLA, CU, UU. State: ASU, OSU, WSU, USU, CSU, UNLV, UNR, SDSU, FSU (sorry Nevada teams you don't bring enough to go into flagship division). Flagship division takes 75% of TV revenues. 9 games football slate with everyone in your division and your geographic rival and conference championship game. 18 game basketball slate with same thing x2.
BSU and BYU scramble to form a league with K-State, Texas Tech and whoever else is left from Big12 and try to claim they are now in a P5 conference. Wyoming, UNM, NMSU, and UTEP all beg for lifelines and may make it only because they need to get a full slate of teams but share less revenue with the latter 4.
Air Force and Hawaii go independent for football.
I'd give more details but I then woke up.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
That would be a dream come true scenario, won't happen but I'd love that. I'd even like it if it left out the Aztecs and Bulldogs.Coloraggie wrote: ↑July 28th, 2021, 12:41 pmKansas and Iowa State to BIG
OK State, Baylor, Houston, SMU? to ACC.
PAC-12 sees need to expand to 18 and keep the traditional rivalry approach. They will add USU and CSU to compliment UU and CU. Then they will add UNLV and Nevada to get the Vegas market and finally SDSU and Fresno to round out. They split into the flagship and state divisions. Flagship: Arizona, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, USC, UCLA, CU, UU. State: ASU, OSU, WSU, USU, CSU, UNLV, UNR, SDSU, FSU (sorry Nevada teams you don't bring enough to go into flagship division). Flagship division takes 75% of TV revenues. 9 games football slate with everyone in your division and your geographic rival and conference championship game. 18 game basketball slate with same thing x2.
BSU and BYU scramble to form a league with K-State, Texas Tech and whoever else is left from Big12 and try to claim they are now in a P5 conference. Wyoming, UNM, NMSU, and UTEP all beg for lifelines and may make it only because they need to get a full slate of teams but share less revenue with the latter 4.
Air Force and Hawaii go independent for football.
I'd give more details but I then woke up.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Ustate98, I thought about leaving out Aztecs and Bulldogs to join BSU and BYU to start a conference but I thought including them was much more demeaning to BYU and BSU so I did it. My dislike for BYU and BSU goes much deeper than my dislike for SDSU.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
All I know is that Tea Leaf Reading is a fine art that none of us are probably good at, but my employees insist I'm a mad soothsayer, I wonder what they mean by "mad" though?
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Get me a couple pints of what this guy is drinking. I love this! USU in the Pac-12 and KU in the Big 10? Yes, please!Coloraggie wrote: ↑July 28th, 2021, 12:41 pmKansas and Iowa State to BIG
OK State, Baylor, Houston, SMU? to ACC.
PAC-12 sees need to expand to 18 and keep the traditional rivalry approach. They will add USU and CSU to compliment UU and CU. Then they will add UNLV and Nevada to get the Vegas market and finally SDSU and Fresno to round out. They split into the flagship and state divisions. Flagship: Arizona, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, USC, UCLA, CU, UU. State: ASU, OSU, WSU, USU, CSU, UNLV, UNR, SDSU, FSU (sorry Nevada teams you don't bring enough to go into flagship division). Flagship division takes 75% of TV revenues. 9 games football slate with everyone in your division and your geographic rival and conference championship game. 18 game basketball slate with same thing x2.
BSU and BYU scramble to form a league with K-State, Texas Tech and whoever else is left from Big12 and try to claim they are now in a P5 conference. Wyoming, UNM, NMSU, and UTEP all beg for lifelines and may make it only because they need to get a full slate of teams but share less revenue with the latter 4.
Air Force and Hawaii go independent for football.
I'd give more details but I then woke up.
I don’t care if the Flagship division keeps most of the money, I’m just happy to be at the party!
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Re: Realignment Predictions
But at least we're the awkward teenager sitting with headphones on, too cool to bother with little kids surrounding us at the table, and indifferent towards our relatives at the adult table.coolag wrote: ↑July 27th, 2021, 11:22 pmThe MWC will still be the MWC. A couple teams might get snagged by the big12/new AAC but will backfill with nmsu or ndsu etc. That's all. We are at the kiddy table. Except it. We just have to look forward to cheering for our alma mater in the little league tournament.
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Re: Realignment Predictions
Coloraggie wrote: ↑July 28th, 2021, 12:41 pmKansas and Iowa State to BIG
OK State, Baylor, Houston, SMU? to ACC.
PAC-12 sees need to expand to 18 and keep the traditional rivalry approach. They will add USU and CSU to compliment UU and CU. Then they will add UNLV and Nevada to get the Vegas market and finally SDSU and Fresno to round out. They split into the flagship and state divisions. Flagship: Arizona, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, USC, UCLA, CU, UU. State: ASU, OSU, WSU, USU, CSU, UNLV, UNR, SDSU, FSU (sorry Nevada teams you don't bring enough to go into flagship division). Flagship division takes 75% of TV revenues. 9 games football slate with everyone in your division and your geographic rival and conference championship game. 18 game basketball slate with same thing x2.
BSU and BYU scramble to form a league with K-State, Texas Tech and whoever else is left from Big12 and try to claim they are now in a P5 conference. Wyoming, UNM, NMSU, and UTEP all beg for lifelines and may make it only because they need to get a full slate of teams but share less revenue with the latter 4.
Air Force and Hawaii go independent for football.
I'd give more details but I then woke up.